Kail Trading

Crypto trader，龙头作手，以通天彻地为志

[Kail Trading @ykai104]

crypto市场当前良性轮动，流动性长时间枯竭的阴霾得以扫除。等待BTC、ETH继续上涨，给市场带来可观的赚钱效应和增量资金。当然，山寨币的机会不妨多等等，等待主流资金进场，等待市场孕育强势热点。风险偏好不宜提升得过早过快。虽有智慧，不如乘势；虽有镃基，不如待时。

[Kail Trading @ykai104]

我们等待许久的crypto市场反转已经发生，市场一旦反转，BTC、ETH均有新高预期，但过程的漫长曲折不可避免，中间震荡与回调的具体形式亦难主观臆断。

[Kail Trading @ykai104]

人在能力圈之内就是神，在能力圈之外啥也不是。打磨能力圈，笃守能力圈，须臾不离辎重～

[Kail Trading @ykai104]

@HABIBIEXCHANGE #HelloHABIBI @elonmusk

[Kail Trading @ykai104]

@CryptosLaowai 米哥，讲讲你的交易体系需要什么基础？本人是非技术派交易员，想向米哥学习

[Kail Trading @ykai104]

@cakaleth bc1ph2svn9txzx2wyz7ekccn6eux9y6pu89pveps2jt08g87xu8ktajq9yd9w9

[paulwei @coolish]

Vision Pro 对 Web3 可能会是质变性利好，把 Web3 曾经的一些“伪需求”可能变成部分“真需求”。比如：
曾经的“伪需求”：数字收藏品、资产只能在网上、手机电脑屏幕上展示，只能用来炒。
可能质变出的“真需求”：Vision Pro 装上 Opensea APP，现实中透过眼镜看到一个人，能看到他穿在物理肉身上的“QQ秀”虚拟衣服鞋子包包和特效。

MR和VR完全是不同方向的东西。
Quest 2和Quest Pro的当下产品定位是“VR游戏机”，而昨天的Vision Pro发布视频中，几乎没有包含游戏能力方面的展示，不是它不能做游戏，而是苹果有意把Vision Pro的格局和“又一台游戏机”区分开，不受限于此。
它的设计思路认为不应该像Quest一样，使用时和身边不使用的人隔绝开，而应该强调头显反而能帮助你和周围的环境、人互动（Quest即使有少数视觉穿透应用，效果也还极其原始）。

MR+AI更加是1+1>2。目前AI在电脑手机上使用，本质上像个更智能的Google。连搜索引擎这么易用的东西，发展到今天，大部分人仍然没掌握如何用好它，就是因为“主动构造关键词Prompt”是一件有门槛的事情。
而MR+AI让“主动构造关键词Prompt”变成“自动”：

你在现实中看到朋友身上的一件衣服，甚至是电视上央视新闻里出现的一个NFT，不再需要拍照、打开Google或市场平台以图搜图，而是Vision Pro可以现场立刻在你眼前高亮它允许你下单。
你在工作，遇到问题卡壳，不再需要打开Chatgpt思考怎么构造Prompt询问，而是Vision Pro可能已经默默观察到了你工作过程中遇到的困难，自动提出解决建议。
你在电脑屏幕前打DOTA、LOL，你头上的Vision Pro直接告诉你下一步应该打野还是去哪里走位Gank。

这都是因为，没戴Vision Pro的人只有两只眼和耳，而戴了Vision Pro的人头上多了两只第一人称的电子眼和耳，四眼四耳两个脑（甚至更多的感知维度，能夜视、远距离感知温度etc.），几乎变成了半肉身半机器的“增强人类”。

我2011年的大学毕设，就是设计开发一款体感VR游戏（用Vuzix头显，DEMO在2011年上传于https://t.co/i57lPgEa79），当时连Oculus公司都还没成立。所以我更深知，MR发展的意义绝对不是谈论过去VR游戏的萎靡所能证伪的。

Vision Pro could potentially be a game changer for Web3, transforming some of Web3's "fake use cases" into real ones.
Former fake ones include digital collectibles and assets that could only be displayed online, on phone or computer screens, and were primarily used for speculation.
The emerging use cases might be represented by Vision Pro with the Opensea APP installed, where in reality, when you look at someone through the glasses, you could see their virtual clothing, shoes, bags, and special effects worn on their physical body.

MR and VR are completely different directions. The current positioning of Meta Quest is as 'VR gaming devices', while in the release video of Vision Pro yesterday, there was hardly any demonstration of gaming capabilities. It's not that it can't do gaming, but Apple intentionally distinguishes Vision Pro's layout from 'just another gaming device', refusing to be limited to that.
Its design philosophy believes that, unlike Quest, it should not isolate users from people around them during use, but instead emphasize that the headset could help you interact with the environment and people around you (even though Quest does have some visual penetration applications, their utilities are still very primitive).

The combination of MR and AI is 1+1>2. Currently, using AI on computers and phones is essentially like a smarter Google. Even something as simple as a search engine has not been mastered by most people to this day, and this is because 'actively constructing keyword prompts' is not an easy task. However, MR + AI makes 'actively constructing keyword prompts' automatic:

When you see a piece of clothing on a friend in reality, or even an NFT appearing in the TV news on TV, you no longer need to take a photo, open Google or a marketplace platform to search by image. Instead, Vision Pro can instantly highlight it on the spot and allow you to place an order.
When you are working and encounter a problem, you no longer need to open ChatGPT and think about how to construct a prompt to ask, as Vision Pro might have already quietly observed the difficulties you encountered during your work process and automatically suggest solutions.

This is all because people without Vision Pro only have two eyes and ears, but people with Vision Pro have an additional pair of first-person electronic eyes and ears on their heads, practically becoming 'augmented humans' who are half flesh and half machine, with four eyes, four ears, two brains (and even more perceptive dimensions, such as night vision and long-distance temperature sensing), etc.

My university final year project in 2011 was to design and develop a gesture-based VR game (a 2011 demo can be found at https://t.co/i57lPgEa79 using Vuzix headset). At that time, even the Oculus company hadn't been established yet. Therefore, I understand even more deeply that the significance of Mixed Reality development cannot be falsified by discussing the past decline of VR games.

#VisionPro

[Kail Trading @ykai104]

@DujunX @ABCDELabs 行情和时机优选于币，所以我会跟随市场，选市场的大众情人。
首先，判断行情具备最低限度的持续性，规避无序波动的风险；
其次，建立异动品种的观察池，异动代表有资金用脚投票，且与行情共振启动；
最后，结合基本面和当时的市场人气选出最靓的仔，新赛道/确定性赛道的潜在龙头,Doge那样的纯人气明星

[Kail Trading @ykai104]

@DujunX @ABCDELabs 行情和时机优选于币，所以我会跟随市场，选市场的大众情人。
首先，判断行情具备最低限度的持续性，规避无序波动的风险；
其次，建立异动品种的观察池，异动代表有资金用脚投票，且与行情共振启动；
最后，结合基本面和当时的市场人气选出最靓的仔，新赛道/确定性赛道的潜在龙头,Doge那样的纯人气明星

[Kail Trading @ykai104]

现在有一点越来越自信，那就是我重仓了却没走出来的品种，一定是行情节点有问题。从大环境重新审视，耐心等待行情向下一次出手时机演变。

[Kail Trading @ykai104]

@yinge133 没机会时有耐心，有机会时有决心

[Kail Trading @ykai104]

@BTC_Alert_ 会所哥，多在推特聊聊会所感悟。毕竟万物通于一气，交易和会所的道理是一样的

[Kail Trading @ykai104]

耶伦说不会救所有中小银行，导致市场暴跌。大家都盯着老鲍，没想到老鲍只是佯攻，真正主攻的是个狠辣妇人。耶伦和老鲍的狠话利空不足以扭转行情趋势，继续看涨，只是最近大概率要耐心猥琐发育了。手持核心品种不怕短暂被套，同时留着U等待龙头品种横空出世。耐心是交易员最大的美德

[Kail Trading @ykai104]

@wufantouzi 认知这么高，一定亏了很多钱😂

[Kail Trading @ykai104]

@yinge133 同意。新兴的资本市场韭菜地

[Kail Trading @ykai104]

富兰克林说：“生活的悲哀之处在于，我们总是老得太快，而又聪明得太慢。”对于交易者来说，市场给予的机会要比社会其他领域多得多，这份悲哀其实不必那么强烈。以积极的人生态度应对每一次机会，对于交易者至关重要。你的崛起并不需要太多次机会，尽量少浪费重大机遇就行。

[Kail Trading @ykai104]

BTC突破28000，山寨暂时不跟。最为强势的山寨品种是CFX，20天之内再次被爆炒，深感意外，所以这次没有把握住。这也说明市场暂时没啥其他好品种。善猎者善待，等待下次天时地利人和的杰作。金鳞本非池中物，一遇风云便化龙～

[Kail Trading @ykai104]

龙头战法的优点是短时间内预期利润极大，适合资金快速积累。但是，交易博弈性强，对经验和水平要求较高。本轮行情涌现了apt、agix、cfx三个情绪龙头品种，都是短时间内数倍涨幅。在非牛市环境，大资金运用龙头战法推仓位会比较困难，但在牛市环境游资大佬大手笔推仓位没有任何问题，想想doge就明白了。

[Kail Trading @ykai104]

龙头战法的本质是羊群效应。追根溯源，在这个市场上，我们不是在赚趋势的钱，就是在赚情绪的钱。趋势是干柴，情绪是烈火，而龙头是最为绚丽的那一朵火苗。只要市场参与者还是人，情绪龙头就会不断涌现，与市场交易制度、监管等因素无关。

[Kail Trading @ykai104]

@wufantouzi 国家是中国独有概念，家国同构，国主是大家长，对全体成员负有无限责任。