Seth

student of the game ✏️

[Nostra, House of Gold @Nostre_damus]

Tomorrow's CPI number is going to come in hot

someone leaked it

[Moriö @tebogstaT]

When she thinks she’s competing with other girls but she’s actually competing with how happy I am alone.

[Seth @yltrader61]

@andrepaltry How does the market keep falling for fake reports? It’s like the path of least resistance for oil is lower

[Aidan LaPorta @AidanLaPorta69]

I still can’t believe dropped 70 on Wemby.

Also, keep in mind Wemby was the runner up for DPOY behind Rudy Gobert. Embiid also dropped 51 on him too……

[CNBC @CNBC]

Exxon warns oil inventories will hit dangerously low levels in weeks, forcing prices to shoot higher https://t.co/VahIAf3nml

[💸 Jon 💸 @traderjon01]

Robotics stocks are on fire!!!!

[NBA Memes @NBAMemes]

Pump fakes used to be used for space creation man.
This Kobe vs SGA comp perfectly sums it up!

[HIAMHIGH @hi_amhigh]

Quick question; Does the ash matters? 🤔

[Patrick De Haan @GasBuddyGuy]

trucking rates keep creeping up, given how almost everything moves in the economy by semi, will continue to trickle down to consumers

[Doug Casey's International Man @intlmandotcom]

The 10-year Treasury yield is perhaps the most important financial benchmark in the global fiat system, as it drives valuations and market trends worldwide. It is widely—and erroneously—regarded as the risk-free rate of return.

The 10-year Treasury yield can be thought of as a key barometer of the US dollar-based fiat system—a critical measure akin to its beating heart.

Bond yields move inversely to bond prices. When bond prices fall, bond yields rise.

A rising 10-year Treasury yield signals trouble for the US dollar because it means investors are selling Treasuries, which pushes up the US government’s borrowing costs. That is why the 10-year Treasury yield is a major pain point for the US government.

The 10-year Treasury yield was 3.97% when the war started. Now it is around 4.60%, an increase of roughly 63 basis points.

I expect the 10-year Treasury yield to keep climbing over the coming weeks and months—until it forces the Fed’s hand. At that point, the intervention will be sold as “stability,” but the mechanism will be familiar: suppress yields by debasing the currency.

At today’s debt levels, every 1 basis point increase in the government’s average borrowing cost adds roughly $3.9 billion in annual interest expense. So a 63 bps rise is not trivial—it translates to nearly $250 billion in additional yearly interest costs, materially widening a 2025 budget deficit that was already around $1.8 trillion.

Higher yields mean the US government must pay tens or even hundreds of billions more in interest on its debt. At the same time, the global economy faces even greater added costs because Treasury rates serve as the benchmark for borrowing worldwide.

That is not an insignificant move. However, given all the headwinds I have discussed, I suspect the 10-year Treasury yield is headed much higher because investors will demand higher yields to compensate for rising inflation. Further, if Hormuz remains closed, drastically higher oil prices are all but certain. Higher energy prices mean higher prices across the economy and higher official inflation rates, which means investors will demand still higher yields to compensate.

The problem is that interest on the federal debt is already over $1.2 trillion and is now the second-largest item in the budget. The US government cannot afford yields going much higher because the interest expense would push it toward bankruptcy.

I am not sure how—or even if—the US government can manage this situation. Something has to give, and we will not have to wait long to find out what.

The Iran war may prove to be more than another foreign policy disaster. It could be the trigger that exposes the fragility of the entire dollar-based financial system.

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

The last time the US 30 year bond yield was this high, the stock market peaked 3 months later.

The US 30-year yield just hit 5.18%, the highest level since July 2007. The US has $39 trillion in debt.

Every 1% rise in yields adds roughly $390 billion in annual interest payments to that debt. The US is now paying close to $1.2 trillion per year just in interest, more than it spends on defense.

The reason yields are rising is CPI is at 3.8%, PPI at 6%, and the Iran war is keeping oil above $100.

A bond yielding 5% sounds attractive until you realize inflation is eating 3.8% of that return every year.

So investors are selling bonds and demanding even higher yields to stay in.

The more they sell, the higher yields go, the more it costs the government to borrow, the worse the deficit gets.

62% of global fund managers surveyed by Bank of America now expect the 30-year yield to hit 6%, the highest level since 1999. Barclays and Citigroup have already warned clients that yields may breach 5.5%.

And the head of BlackRock's research unit is already recommending investors reduce exposure to government bonds entirely.

When the 30-year yield hit 5% in 2007, most people ignored it.

3 months later, US stock market peaked while Lehman Brothers collapsed the next year which brought the global financial system down.

[Patrick De Haan @GasBuddyGuy]

Record amount of travelers hitting the road as the economy sees rising inflation, a surge in gas prices, and more? Definitely not. GasBuddy's 2026 Summer Travel Survey shows the real data- a drop in Americans traveling this summer. Details tomorrow.

[Derrick Dao @derrick_dao]

Sulfur leading at +97% is the chokepoint that drives the rest of the list. Sulfuric acid is the upstream reagent for fertilizer, copper SX-EW, and nickel HPAL. Move sulfur and you've moved the cost curve for everything from food (urea, fertilizer) to copper to Indonesian nickel margins. It's not a trading signal — it's a 6-month forward pulse into CPI.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

“Under my administration, we will be slashing energy and electricity prices by half within 12 months, at a maximum 18 months."

“We’re going to get your energy prices down. We’re going to get your energy prices down by 50%.”

“Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again, to bring down the prices of all goods.”

“We’re going down and getting gasoline below $2 a gallon, bring down the price of everything from electricity rates to groceries, airfares, and housing costs.”

“A vote for Trump means your groceries will be cheaper."

-President Trump on the campaign trail in 2024

[Seth @yltrader61]

@TripleDTrader This stuff is going to to have a hard time taking human construction jobs but it will aid with the work

[Princess ✨ @TheItunuOye]

Nemesis on Netflix is so fucking good. The way I’ve been sat!!

[🫦🫦🫦. @1fine_sznn]

Man on Fire on Netflix is good as fuckkkk

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: Reporter: “To what extent are Americans’ financial situations motivating you to make a deal? [with Iran]”

Trump: “Not even a little bit…. I don't think about Americans’ financial situation”

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: April CPI inflation rises to 3.8%, its highest level since May 2023.

Core CPI inflation also rose to 2.8%, above expectations of 2.7%.

We are now experiencing post-pandemic inflation levels amid surging oil prices.

Odds of Fed rate HIKES are surging.