ymes

Trade ideas & market thoughts. || Yield to Maya; Embrace Suffering

[ymes @ymesxbt]

wait... they put a dog in a suit??

[Unipcs (aka 'Bonk Guy') 🎒 @theunipcs]

Robinhood chain is the closest to early Solana vibes i've seen in ages

literally the same vibes: lots of decent runners emerging and reaching meaningful valuations quickly compared to the status quo on incumbent chains, the founder seems to understand memes and is willing to engage, a sudden spike in onchain activity driven by memecoins, etc

a lot of us trenchers bridged over to Solana because of the Only Possible on Solana ($OPOS) memecoin that went viral at the time

then we stayed and bidded new coins that launched in quick succession e.g. $MYRO, $SILLY, etc

many of these went from almost nothing to $200m - $300m market caps relatively quickly

it was one of the easiest 7 figures i ever made

and we all thought that was impressive

but it wasn't long before the real multi-billion-dollar runners emerged: $WIF ($5 billion), $POPCAT ($2.8 billion), $FARTCOIN ($2.8 billion), etc

Solana literally had over a dozen billion-dollar runners after many thought it was finished

i remember clearly how OG trenchers like @traderpow kept hammering that people should bridge over, yet many faded him

i actually bridged to Solana because of him!

the same seems to be playing out right now i.e. many will fade it initially

i think Robinhood chain is very different from all the other chain launches we've had

and i intend to be fully locked in, sacrificing sleep to look for the highest-asymmetry opportunities while it's still in its infancy

[ymes @ymesxbt]

bear markets are nice for healing,

grifters getting cleansed and $HYPE at ath's

last bull was peak grift; hopefully we keep our focus more towards adding value to the world moving forward

[Alex 👽 @AlexesNakamoto]

There will be signs⚡️

[Evanss6 @Evan_ss6]

Just want to point out a few things wrong/missing from this analysis to give a more informed take:

The takes on being a bucket shop are silly so won't even respond to that. I don't believe there is some "Holy" level of leverage to offer that the CME has mastered. The key is safety and being able to properly liquidate positions. People trading on high leverage want high leverage, period.

Crypto Share of Volume: Share relative to Binance is making fresh highs. Still at just 15%. Keep in mind since this is a % of Binance rather than a % of the whole, this can go above 100% in best case scenario (not saying this is likely).

AQAv2: 90% of the yield from USDC is being used to buy back HYPE. This is known but the flows don't start until October. Addition of $150-200M to ARR.

HyperCore Priority Fees: This was essentially 0 two months ago and a $20M ARR currently. This has a lot of room to grow potentially and is yet another signal that when this team ships, there is immediate uptake and boost to revenue.

HyperEVM network fees: burning around $1M HYPE/month

Ticker auctions: burning around $2.5M/year

HIP-4: brand new, currently no significant contribution. Kalshi and Polymarket have demonstrated PMF for Prediction Markets. I personally am not very bullish on this sector but maybe I'm wrong.

HIP-5 and beyond: the team continues to ship and most things they ship see real uptake. I could imagine them eventually launching options among other things.

The Regulatory Fork: Most serious money is still not allowed to use Hyperliquid. Hedge Funds are locked out because of LP agreements, and MMers for regulatory reasons. Opening up the market to America and to serious professionals like HFs/MMers. This would be tremendously bullish on volumes and liquidity. I call it a "fork" because the downside case is they get lawfared out forever. If this is your thesis, I implore you to watch this recent interview that I will link below with the CFTC chair.

Hyperliquid as a Liquidity Backend: we have already seen large uptake of builder codes as consumer-facing products such as Phantom and Fomo offer perps to users in their frontends via their builder codes. The best case scenario for Hyperliquid is that it becomes one of the liquidity backends for traditional brokers and MMers. If Hyperliquid can continue offering better pricing than CME (as they do on BTC/ETH/SOL futures), this could become a large source of future volume in the good regulatory scenarios.

Staking Rewards and Community Tokens: Lazy analysis values HYPE at its fully diluted value. More careful analysis realizes 1) most emissions go directly to existing token holders 2) future community emissions (nearly 40% of fully diluted supply) may never happen, partially happen, or be redirected to stakers over N number of years. If 1 HYPE staked today = 2 HYPE staked in N years, the price is effectively halved today (ignoring tax distortions). The circulating cap is around $17B today, and this isn't backing out any supply, including that owned by Hyperliquid Strategies DAT, which is presumably off the market.

Hyperliquid.

[ymes @ymesxbt]

@Stoiiic where's the artwork from?

[ymes @ymesxbt]

@BobLoukas hyperliquid

[Hyperliquid Policy Center @HyperliquidPC]

For years, Americans were pushed offshore to trade perpetual futures while the rest of the world could trade them at home. This spring, U.S. regulators finally opened a compliant path to these markets here. Today, the largest U.S. exchange, CME, went to court to close it.

This is what happens when one company controls a market. By @BetterMarkets' count, CME runs about 92% of U.S. exchange-traded derivatives. When one venue holds that much volume, everyone else carries the cost. Less choice, higher prices.

Perpetual futures are the first genuinely new derivatives product to reach U.S.-regulated markets in over a decade. More competition among exchanges is best for the people who actually use these markets. These products deserve clear rules.

The real question is whether Americans get access to innovative new financial products, or whether one incumbent keeps them locked out. We think they deserve access. As CFTC @ChairmanSelig put it: "Incumbents will always fear the future." But none of us should fear the incumbents.

[ymes @ymesxbt]

@gumsays fundamentally the best thesis was always as a rails making web2 elements more decentralized and efficient - tokenized stocks is a huge leap towards that

[Simon @simononchain]

For everyone who watched hyperliquid:native run all cycle and never pulled the trigger, now might be the time.

In fact, I believe the case for $100 HYPE by the end of summer is very strong.

This is due to a mix of factors:

- First, Hyperliquid's underlying fundamentals are arguably stronger than they've ever been...

Yes, DESPITE monthly fees being down ~57% (from ~$145M in August to ~$63M in May).

Context matters here ^

We are in a DEEP crypto bear market, w/ BTC down ~50% from ATH.

That is to say this isn't a product of their market share eroding but, instead, due to structural and market-wide forces.

(e.g. Coinbase's revenue fell ~60% peak to trough last bear).

Even still, HYPE's revenue has held up surprisingly well, largely because they're servicing traders who want to trade (and list) non-crypto assets on HIP-3 markets: 24/7, permissionless, in a way ONLY they can really pull off.

This has, very clearly, found real PMF well outside even crypto natives (off-hours oil trading during global conflict being the perfect example).

//

For the first time too, there's a credible path to hyperliquid:native pulling in unexposed marginal capital from TradFi through ETFs (something required for a true parabolic ATH break).

TradFi allocators now have multiple Hyperliquid spot ETFs to choose from.

(Access had been a real blocker for anyone even considering exposure, even among positioned, crypto-native allocators post TGE)

The HL story has also now permeated outside of crypto, repeatedly even to the point now where HL is undeniable: multiple @WSJ features, a @citrini allocation, @CNBC charting it.

Set against an overwhelmingly successful SPCX pre-IPO market that became the "source of truth" on for everyone involved...

Yet, the best is likely yet to come here.

I expect the OpenAI and Anthropic markets to build off that momentum and pull in an EVEN MORE absurd amount of TradFi attention toward Hyperliquid.

(This is key because, at EOD we are all really just trading attention)>>

///

While, it might seem obvious to anyone in crypto - "everyone knows" Hyperliquid has been the most fundamentally sound project this cycle...

If these variables play out, I think we get a genuinely reflexive loop that could catch people offsides (assuming broader markets hold).

The most access to Hyperliquid there's ever been + repeated Wall Street and media attention + OpenAI/ Anthropic pre IPO markets = higher hyperliquid:native:

- more attention --->
- more flows --->
- higher price --->
- more attention--->
- repeat

For the FIRST time that means real TradFi bidders in the book

(Remember how ETH ran on far worse fundamentals?)

And if/when HYPE takes out its ATH, I believe a ton of sidelined crypto-native capital will chase as well.

(Shocking how little exposure many of us still have)

///

A couple other points worth touching on in the HL story...

1.) I believe it is very underdiscussed that @fomo (ex @dYdX team w/ reportedly ~500k users) built their perps product on HL's builder codes.

If their offering really takes off, which I think they will given how well their meme-centered product has done while the meme market's been dead, the builder code / "AWS of liquidity" narrative (not to mention marginal fees) will be dragged right back to the forefront.

(~40% of HL's active users already trade through third-party frontends, not the native UI.)

TradFi will LOVE this.

2.) While HIP-4 hasn't done as well as I'd have expected, I do think there's a chance HL becomes a viable competitor in prediction markets down the road, especially as those markets get aggregated and traded through terminals.

(Worth noting the comps here = Kalshi @ $22B & Polymarket @ $15B)

HL has arguably the most valuable user base in the space, and from a dev POV, building on Hyperliquid is far friendlier than anywhere else, large reason builder codes have taken off the way the have.

For this reason I do not think it's a stretch to say we could see this play out the same way their perps liquidity did, though it'll take time.

3.) Finally, USDH being acquired + Circle/Coinbase giving 90% of the USDC yield back to HL heavily derisks HYPE IMO

(not to mention the incremental ~$200M /yr in HYPE buybacks).

Two things here are true:

1. Circle and Coinbase are among the most connected companies in Washington and some of the highest spenders on lobbying
2. They've decided they can't afford not be part of Hyperliquid's growth story.

US approval or not, the non-KYC offshore market Binance has owned for years is more than enough reason for them to get in the mix.

Hyperliquid.

[Luckshury @Luckshuryy]

TRADING CHEATSHEETS 🧵

1/ bottoming patterns

[ymes @ymesxbt]

@Luckshuryy thanks, helpful post!

[weed @yurimusings]

chud is one letter away from chad and the only thing that changes is u

[NASA @NASA]

This spiral galaxy, recently observed by @NASAHubble, is in the middle of a cosmic journey that will take it hundreds of millions of years. Learn more: https://t.co/ebWeGyWicp

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

ThE fOur YeAr cyCle iS dEAd

https://t.co/GMiUq4kFWH

If you've enjoyed this Bitcoin Journey over the past 8 years, appreciate a Retweet and sharing on other forums. Thanks,.

[ymes @ymesxbt]

@BobLoukas new post!

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

Hyperliquid Strategies ($PURR ) will have a gamma squeeze in the next 60 trading days (similar to GameStop)🧵👇

$PURR just had its largest day of trading volume, indicating how aggressively investors are establishing positions into the regulatory change for Hyperliquid

On top of this, call open interest for $PURR is surging, as traders buy the OTM tails. Watch very closely because once more OTM calls get listed, it will almost certainly cause a gamma squeeze. Right now, $PURR is the only liquid location to buy OTM calls on Hyperliquid, squeezing into the regulatory acceptance.

There is a massive problem with the calls right now, though. The strikes aren't listed very high. I'll explain this in the next tweet below for you.

[ymes @ymesxbt]

@paik_michael michael back

guts pfp

unstoppable

[jeff.hl @chameleon_jeff]

Excited to see everyone come together for this historic moment. AQAv2 brings the protocol-aligned stablecoin model that @Nativemarkets trail-blazed to USDC with @Coinbase and @Circle's commitment to Hyperliquid. The community no longer has to choose between liquidity and alignment.

Our industry will face adversity as we continue to grow. It gives me hope seeing titans of the industry come together to build for users and bring all of finance onchain.

[ymes @ymesxbt]

@izebel_eth @fiege_max @papertrade_xyz @blurr This is awesome!