Your Future

Investor in long-term macrotrends. $PLTR, $AMZN, $BAM, $SOFI, $ASML,$NU, $META, $HOOD, $ZETA, $HIMS, $BN, $NVDA

[Your Future @yourfuturevalue]

@JerBearRN @danroberts0101 @IREN_Ltd $IREN has been decommissioning their Bitcoin mining hardware (ASICs) in their data centers and replacing them with the GPUs needed for AI workflows.

They wrote off a large portion of the old hardware from the balance sheet as a non-cash impairment charge of ($450)m this quarter

[Your Future @yourfuturevalue]

@samavishay @Wealthsimple Why would I go through the trouble when IBKR charges me $1 maximum to convert literally any amount of money instantly lol

[Your Future @yourfuturevalue]

@ariaradnia IBKR for USD, WealthSimple for CAD

[Your Future @yourfuturevalue]

@Ashton_1nvests I like it, but this is the first time since the spin off that $BAM is at a meaningfully more attractive valuation, with higher growth and better business model

[Your Future @yourfuturevalue]

@janiscir @qualtrim No, I’m bullish on a company you pay $3 million to create $10 million+ in value.

Dilution for H1 26 was 0.49%. SBC is barely a problem it’s 13% of revenue and shrinking as a % every year.

I found it to be my kind of value 3 years ago 🤷

[Your Future @yourfuturevalue]

@janiscir @qualtrim SBC:

2024: $692m
2025: $684m
2026: $8.16B rev x 13.5% = $1.1B

SBC as % of rev (2026 - 2030): 13.5% -> 12% -> 10.5% -> 9% -> 7.5% -> 6%

2030: ~$40B rev x 6% = $2.4B

Adj FCF = $28B FCF - $2.4B SBC = $25.6B

[Your Future @yourfuturevalue]

@janiscir @qualtrim FCF Projections:

2026 E FCF guide is $4.4B
2027 E FCF = 4.4B x 100% = 8.8B
2028 E FCF = 8.8B x 56% = 13.7B (informal guide $15B-18B)
2029 E FCF = 13.7B x 47% = $20.1B
2030 E FCF = 20.1B x 39% = $27.99

[Your Future @yourfuturevalue]

@janiscir @qualtrim literally over 100%, GAAP FCF margin is 62%, so $62 in cash vs $48 in earnings

[Your Future @yourfuturevalue]

@qualtrim “let’s just apply last decades P/E and then subtract 1 to be ‘conservative’ and use that as the terminal P/E completely ignoring how the business will significantly mature over the next 10 years”

[Your Future @yourfuturevalue]

@CJ0pp3l $BAM

[Your Future @yourfuturevalue]

Portfolio Update:

YTD: +11%

[Your Future @yourfuturevalue]

@BagholderQuotes Friends don’t let friends project the valuation of a business using one-time investment gains (that could easily turn to losses) in a way that assumes it will be repeatable for future EPS growth.

But what’s a dozen turns of inflated EPS between friends to pump your valuations

[Your Future @yourfuturevalue]

@MetacriticCap Anyone who knows anything about accounting knows that blindly using the same measures for wildly varying businesses will lead to terrible analysis

[Your Future @yourfuturevalue]

@MetacriticCap Mom! I am scared!

People are quoting GAAP accounting like it’s the gospel and not a framework based on tradeoffs and assumptions.

True P/E measures how many dollars paid for a dollar of REPEATABLE earnings

One time investment gains are not part of the core business

[Your Future @yourfuturevalue]

@FluentInQuality maybe use earnings at a time $META is spending historic Capex?

16% EPS growth with a 25 PE for a 12% CAGR over the next 5 years is far more reasonable.

This is using only $23.49 of TTM EPS btw stripping out the one time tax benefits.

[Your Future @yourfuturevalue]

@AIDRIVR @Tesla_AI that’s what sloth mode is for if you want to drive like a grandma. Not a single human is ever doing 25 there

[Your Future @yourfuturevalue]

@Bnewhard77 @anthonynoto @alexcapital01 You don’t have any knowledge about his PERSONAL tax situation, how can you blindly say this with confidence?

[Your Future @yourfuturevalue]

@lisachristinect @potatokmish The company or organization that already owned that data