郁灵星

US stocks—elementary, biz—middle school,China stocks—college. Hoping to grad soon!

[郁灵星 @yulingxing1]

@AscendingBio Agreed. Ultimately it's all about execution. I've been watching on and off for a year—management seems decent, products have some edge. But cash flow issues and unattractive odds kept me from taking a position. Now the odds look juicy, but I'm waiting to see the next few quarters

[郁灵星 @yulingxing1]

Three views:
1) MA market up low-single-digit;
2) VBC penetration rising fast;
3) Ops-strong VBC firms gain share, coding/policy-arbitrage ones fade.

Likely winners so far: $ASTH $TOI.

[郁灵星 @yulingxing1]

@the_zack_zhu Looking forward to it: Has e-commerce EBITDA margin finally bottomed out? And how much could Indonesia’s potential TR-related policies impact it?

[郁灵星 @yulingxing1]

@2500capital Yeah. $EVH's CEO seems not great either (just my first impression)? For now, it looks more like an odds play in a good sector.

[郁灵星 @yulingxing1]

$EVH - Not a fan of management. Unfocused, out of their circle of competence: went from light-asset software to high-risk healthcare services, borrowing to buy radiology, cardiology, etc. In a heavy-ops space, trying to do everything means doing nothing well. What do you think？

[郁灵星 @yulingxing1]

@the_zack_zhu Even without restrictions, there's not much room for take rate to grow, right?

[郁灵星 @yulingxing1]

As I've said before: on $DLO, my edge over institutions and most retail investors is high trust in management and better patience—with no clear disadvantage on other fundamentals either.

[郁灵星 @yulingxing1]

$DLO This business is all about scale. Pedro should lower gross take rate faster—block competitors and ride LatAm’s e-commerce/ride-hailing beta. Near-term TR cuts hurt short-term holders, but building the business matters more. My move: value this year’s profit at terminal TR.

[郁灵星 @yulingxing1]

As a retail investor, my edge in $DLO is mainly:
· trust in management
· longer-term patience.

[郁灵星 @yulingxing1]

$DLO Two weak spots in 26Q1 :
· Expenses came in much higher than expected. Core opex was somewhat expected, but the one-off charges were impossible to model. Hope management gives earlier signals next time.
· FCF missed due to pre-funding needs, also unexpected.

[郁灵星 @yulingxing1]

Another risk: LatAm internet competition is still evolving. Some major platforms may get over the next few years, potentially including large Dlocal clients.
Main risks remain:declining TR and customer concentration. So far, I still don’t see irrational competition from peers.

[郁灵星 @yulingxing1]

$SEA The price drop today partly reflects Tencent divestment fears—look at other Tencent-backed names. As for competition, ByteDance is intensely short-term ROI focused (see its China playbook), the opposite of $SEA and $MELI. That's great for Sea. Trust long-termism and focus.

[郁灵星 @yulingxing1]

@pantoskey83 $TOI is my largest position. No concerns on operations—beats every quarter. Just waiting for profit release and a double-click. My earliest cost was $0.18 with a small stake as a turnaround play, but now the fundamentals are completely different.