zach

Observations on markets, personal finance, and real estate

[zach @zaabrz]

@OriSilver Ok followed

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

The Fed is expected to cut rates in four weeks.

If they do, that'll be 9 months between rate cuts.

Turns out, long waits between cuts (between 5 and 12 months) can be quite bullish. S&P 500 higher a year later 10 out of 11 times, with above average returns.

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

Looking at the S&P 500 equal-weighted index, we see a market that sits right on its rising trendline (just short of making new highs), with about two-thirds of the market above their moving average. Meanwhile the equal-weighted forward P/E ratio of 18.3x is a smidge above its average of 17x. Looking at this chart, I do not see a market that is over its skis.

[zach @zaabrz]

@Aldigity Price points in area we are in no longer make sense.

We got in early Covid on multiple properties and sold one at nice IRR. The other is doing well, and want to build on it, but costs are also stretched.

To your point, if rest of markets are like this - mediocre wealth play.

[zach @zaabrz]

@JohnLeFevre What prompt did you use?

[zach @zaabrz]

@TimmerFidelity Is this the best gage of market liquidity?

[zach @zaabrz]

@adamthebull Please tell me how me how the state would spend this money efficiently on “more important things”

[Jeffrey Gundlach @TruthGundlach]

When public markets experience a sharp decline, like now, it is nonsensical to think private markets are a harbor in the storm. Yet I have heard this absurd assertion twice in the past week. “Don’t worry, we’re not down”. Sure.

[zach @zaabrz]

@TihoBrkan Could see a change once Q1 starts rolling in. The rate of change of forward revisions has slowed, though not substantially.

[zippytop @zippytop71]

People need to sear this image into their brains

[zach @zaabrz]

@Greenbackd The quality of SMID is lower though. Perhaps valuations are stretched, but some spread is warranted.

[zach @zaabrz]

@RyanDetrick nm thought that read recession and not bear market.

[zach @zaabrz]

@RyanDetrick Isn't 2022 missing from this?

[zach @zaabrz]

@realEstateTrent Do brokers ever assist with the underwriting?

For example, with net cash flows at X with price at Y and financing at Z your IRR, Cash on Cash, Forward Cap etc. look like this.

[zach @zaabrz]

@RyanBeltz330 @JohnGroce Does Bud talk about how he has the team taking resveratrol to keep the fellas sharp and on their game mentally?

[zach @zaabrz]

@EconomPic Hussman?

[J.C. Parets @JC_ParetsX]

I love these kinds of people. They make life better for the rest of us. We appreciate their sacrifice. https://t.co/ZbII2Qcqbb

[zach @zaabrz]

@RampCapitalLLC Sicario

[zach @zaabrz]

@realEstateTrent Helps create a better customer experience and probably improves margins, win-win