The 24-hour rule states that you turn the page every day. No matter what. You can celebrate or cry, but tomorrow you turn the page. Tomorrow is a new day.
Those anchored to the past are incapable of seeing the future.
Learn from the past but don’t hang on to it.
In 2009, Stanford business professor Tina Seelig split her class into groups and issued a challenge:
Each group had $5 and 2 hours to make the highest return on the initial money.
At the end, they'd give a short presentation on their strategy.
The results were fascinating...
Most of the groups followed a basic approach:
• Use the $5 to buy a few items.
• Barter or resell those items.
• Repeat
• Sell final items for (hopefully) more than $5.
These groups made a modest return on their initial $5.
A few groups ignored the $5.
They thought up ways to make the most money in the 2 hours of allotted time:
• Made and sold reservations at hot restaurants.
• Refilled bike tires on campus for $1 each.
These groups made a better return on their initial $5.
The winning group took an entirely different approach.
They had three core realizations:
1. The $5 was nothing more than a distraction.
2. The 2 hours of time was not enough to make an attractive, outsized return with a mini-business (like selling restaurant reservations or filling bike tires).
3. The most valuable "asset" was actually the presentation time in front of a class of Stanford students.
Realizing the value of this hidden asset, they offered the presentation time to companies looking to recruit Stanford students.
They struck a deal to sell the time slot for $650, netting a monstrous return on the $5 of initial capital.
The losing groups thought in linear, logical terms and achieved a linear, logical outcome.
The winning group thought differently.
So, what can we learn from this story?
There are two types of problems:
1. Low-Stakes: Lower potential, linear rewards. Decisions are easily reversible.
2. High-Stakes: Higher potential, asymmetric rewards. Decisions are not easily reversible.
With low-stakes problems, given the reward potential is low and the decisions are easily reversible, we can use shortcuts and heuristics to choose our path. We can take a logical, linear approach.
With high-stakes problems, the high, asymmetric reward potential means we need to think differently. We want to take a creative, non-linear approach.
Three steps to start thinking differently:
Step 1: Avoid the Distraction
There will always be an "obvious" solution that is simple, clear, and entirely wrong.
In the challenge, the $5 was nothing more than a distraction. It was a trap.
To find the best path, you have to avoid the distraction.
Step 2: Ask Foundational Questions
Ask and answer questions that expose and vet underlying assumptions and logic.
• What's the real problem you are trying to solve?
• What's your hypothesis? Why?
• What are your core assumptions? Why?
• What evidence do you have?
• What are your core options?
• What alternatives exist?
This takes time, but it's an essential exercise when facing a problem with the potential for non-linear rewards.
Step 3: Select the High Leverage Approach
Slow down and evaluate the options on the table.
Select the path most likely to generate the asymmetric, attractive risk-adjusted returns.
If the story teaches us one thing, it's this:
Creative, non-linear, asymmetric thinking generates creative, non-linear, asymmetric outcomes.
If you enjoyed this or learned something, follow me @SahilBloom for more in future.
Life Hack:
Days you feel ‘bad’ for no particular reason are great days to do the things you’ve been procrastinating due to not wanting to feel ‘bad’
You already feel bad, mine as well use it to get something done.
I like to tell think this is “getting good at feeling bad”
Not only can you do everything as planned, but you can also do MORE.
Many people wait for days they feel good to tackle big tasks, but what if you could use the other 50% as well?
I love using days I feel bad to do things I haven’t wanted to do.
Ironically - the day usually ends feeling pretty good 🙃
Just as you watch what you put into your body or your mind, closely look at who you spend your time with. Are they kind? Are they honest? Are they thoughtful? Are they thinking clearly? In short, are they the things you want to become?
If not, don’t tempt fate, cut back.
The public praises people for what they practice in private:
"Tiger often averaged more than ten hours per day on the practice range.
Tiger was far more inclined to practice than to play a round of golf.
Grohman: "Why don't you play the course more?"
Tiger: "I like practicing better.”
Tiger spent more than five hundred hours practicing during the summer months before his freshman year.
Extreme practice habits were neither new nor challenging for him.
"The first thing I taught Tiger, aside from the love of the game of golf, was the love of practice," his dad said.
When he was real small, people would ask him:
How did you get so good, Tiger?
And he would answer: Practice, practice, practice."
Be the biggest fan of the people you care about ...
Show them you care.
Make them look good.
Unconditionally support them.
Catch them when they stumble.
Remind them of what they do well.
Help them accomplish their dreams.
Too often we reward people who solve problems while ignoring those who prevent them in the first place.
Instead of glorifying those who run around putting out fires, we need to create an organizational culture that empowers everyone to act responsibly at the first sign of smoke.