@benjamincowen Well, this year is going to be the opposite!
How about this?
Can you for once, look at the current macro environment and not ALWAYS look at history and how it went 10 years ago?
$ETH is $2,100 and bitmine is down $7.5B unrealized..
seeing many of you roasting tom lee on my timeline
so i actually sat down and looked at what bitmine is doing
is Bitmine and Tom lee in trouble ?
first of all Bitmine isn't a hedge fund making eth trades..
they're building an ethereum treasury company.. the entire model is: accumulate and hold eth. that's it.
their current holdings: 4.2M ETH
average cost: ~$3,600-3,900
current price: $2,100
unrealized loss: ~$7.5B
and everyone thinks this is a disaster but here's what you all miss:
there's no margin call. no liquidation price. no aave loop.
they're not leveraged gamblers like trend research (who just blew up $747M)
bitmine buys eth with:
> equity raises
> operational cash flow
> staking rewards
no debt. no forced selling. no death spiral.
worst case? stock tracks eth price. which it does..
their goal is not to trade eth. it's to OWN 5% of total ethereum supply.
when you're trying to accumulate 5% of an asset, you don't care about short-term price
you care about how much you can accumulate before the next cycle
and so here's the thing everyone misses:
lower prices = better accumulation
and so while trend research capitulated and sold 651k eth at $2,100... bitmine BOUGHT 20k more eth at $2,100
same price. opposite actions.
one was over-leveraged and forced out. one is building a decade-long position.
tom lee literally said "the paper losses are by design"
because when you're building a treasury, drawdowns are features not bugs
think about microstrategy and saylor:
- btc at $100k: genius
- btc at $76k: everyone saying he's finished
- btc at $16k (2022): everyone said it was over
structurally nothing changed. he kept accumulating.
bitmine is the same model, just with eth instead of btc
no forced selling = can wait out any drawdown
staking income = ~3-4% yield helps offset
stock tracks eth 1:1 = if eth recovers, stock recovers
simple. boring. long-term.
the people roasting tom lee right now are the same ones who roasted saylor at btc $16k
"how can you keep buying? you're already down billions!"
turns out, that's exactly when you SHOULD be buying if your thesis is long-term
so is bitmine in trouble?
no
โข no debt
โข no liquidations
โข cash flow positive from staking
โข still accumulating
@benjamincowen Nothing new with China!
Why always negative, Ben?
Bring some positive vibes to the crypto community, it will help a lot!
What do you say?
$BTC $ETH ๐
@Han_Akamatsu With all respect, you can look at charts all day, but some things are purely correlated with macro environment.
Which it seems is going in the positive direction for crypto, no matter how you look at it.