#UFCVegas119 || ๐ ๐๐ง๐ข๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ ๐ฃ
๐ต๐น Manel Kape ML @ 1.63 / -160
Wager placed on @Duelbits
๐ YTD UFC Record: 72-85 (+15.42U)
Hit ๐๐๐๐ - If Youโre ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ โค๏ธ
Look, first of all I just want to say if youโre looking at the UFC record and the fact we lost more than we have won, that is a very misleading statistic. As you can see we are still profitable on the year, most of my UFC picks are smaller units at very high odds so its common we take more losses but nobody can complain about them because all year iโve shown you I can hit them long shots and all that matters is being profitable. In this case, itโs irrelevant, this pick isnโt some round 3 KO prediction and it isnโt an underdog. Also I do acknowledge the risks involved in this one, that is why I reduced it from 5U to 3U.
Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi have actually fought before, on a Japanese promotion called RIZN, in this fight Kyoji Horiguchi completely dominated Manel Kape, knocked him down and submitted him in the third round so your probably wondering why am I so confident things will be different this time? Firstly, RIZN is in Japan, which is home turf for Kyoji Horiguchi and secondly that fight was almost 10 years ago and Manel Kape was very young and inexperienced compared to Horiguchi at the time so Iโm not paying much attention to that. RIZN is also known for having very different rules to the UFC that help Horiguchiโs game.
Kyoji Horiguchi fights out of a a very slick karate base, he is 35 years old but this man is lightning quick and he enters the pocket with precision and speed to flurry opponents, he loves using range and distance management, his kicks are nasty, he can mix in wrestling and his resume is amazing (7-0 win streak). Manel Kape on the other hand is one of the most dangerous flyweights on the planet in my opinion, this guy is extremely fast, he has hands of steel and he looks to knock you out in every single exchange, he shows no fear, he will walk you down relentlessly and he will pay you no respect. Manel Kape doesnโt care who you are, he will try to put your lights out. He is a volume puncher, on a three fight win KO streak but more importantly he is not the same Manel Kape we saw 10 years ago!
I think this fight does not favour Kyoji Horiguchi and I also think people are showing him way too much love. I said above that Horiguchi loves to use his distance management right? Well, this fight is in vegas at the UFC APEX, which is the smallest octagon out there, this means there is less space to move, less of a chance to utilise distance management and more of a chance for Kape to walk him down. If you canโt see how the venue favours Kapeโs fight-style over Horiguchiโs you might be related to Stevie Wonder. Also Kape has a huge reach advantage and he is able to stuff wrestling advances, so iโm not worried about submission threats
Also, iโm going to go ahead and say it, iโm not overly impressed with Horiguchiโs wins since coming back. Look, you can only beat what is infront of you but Tagir Ulanbekov was extremely fatigue coming into the fight from a brutal weight cut, which looked evident in the fight Nd was later confirmed by Islam Makachev. Then he fought Amir Albazi, who he completely outclassed but I meanโฆ Albazi is the worst top 10 in the division. Manel Kape knocked out a former title contender, knocked out an elite grappler and he is entering his prime! I think Kape is a future champion and I think we still havenโt seen the best from him.
Manel Kape has trained with the Nurmagomedov camp over the last few years here and there and even fighters like Umar Nurmagomedov have gone on to say Kape gives him a tougher challenge in training than actual ranked bantamweights (bantamweights are bigger). Kape is also the type of guy who loves getting revenge so to avenge his 10 year old loss would be on his mind heavily.