btc lost the 200W MA. now retesting it from below.
same thing happened in 2022. btc reclaimed it, pumped 10% above it, everyone called the bottom. then flushed straight to 15k.
the reclaim wasn't the signal. it was the trap.
if we get a weekly close above 200W MA here, that's not bullish. that's the market building liquidity for the final flush to 40-50k.
my plan: if btc visits 68-69k i'm adding shorts. not buying.
FOMC minutes wednesday. first meeting under Warsh.
hawkish shift confirmed, potential rate hike on the table before year end. not a catalyst for risk assets.
2022 playbook is running almost perfectly.
september-october for the real bottom.
ETH will soon be “the future of finance” again. We were scooping up ETH and quality alts when it was trading below $1,500 while the herd was in analysis-paralysis, with no money to buy the lows as they went all-in near the January top.
Now, our risk-to-reward is on another level. They’re effectively pumping our bags while desperately praying just to break even.
Different strategies.
Different mindsets.
Different leagues.