CJ

micro-saas; public equities investor; bikes

[CJ @zerodarkcb]

@mylesmarino @jmduke Perfect inspo for some design focused work

[CJ @zerodarkcb]

Every single thing outside of this red box on the GitHub dashboard is entirely useless. And even the red box doesn't surface everything I want it to. Doesn't feel like good UX

[Justin Duke @jmduke]

the problem with this ad is that granola is for breakfast, so you've lost me right there

[CJ @zerodarkcb]

Boxing is mostly to get around lock ups or to give the impression you do still own something (e.g. post IPO to keep window dressing). Why box a standard long position, especially with such size? Especially when you have to pay the borrow cost (which is minimal with a name like META, but still)

[CJ @zerodarkcb]

Don’t really think I need 2FA and a saved passkey for my Nevada Energy account. If someone wants to log in and check out my usage charts or pay the bill, go ahead

[CJ @zerodarkcb]

Been a big fan of telling Codex "my developer did this" when I'm fixing Opus 4.7's mistakes

[CJ @zerodarkcb]

@getseline could you guys add the ability to view historical usage by billing cycle?

[CJ @zerodarkcb]

@jmduke “Bet on what you know” being their tagline does not go hard in this situation

[CJ @zerodarkcb]

Had to upgrade MacOS for 120Hz on the XDR

[CJ @zerodarkcb]

Calling it now — Pyfer will be the middleweight champ within 12 months

[UFC on Paramount+ @UFConParamount]

JOE PYFER STOPS ISRAEL ADESANYA IN THE 2ND ROUND!!!

📺 @paramountplus

[CJ @zerodarkcb]

Maybe an unpopular opinion, but the fights on UFC fight nights have been exponentially higher quality than the numbered major cards

[CJ @zerodarkcb]

One thing that has completely changed:

In the early days of the AI model launches, it was very in vogue for people at funds/investment firms to not want to invest in the labs. There was a very popular consensus view I heard numerous times that yes, OpenAI / Anthropic were early movers, but “you should own the picks and shovels” (whatever that means - it was the widely held view), because models had zero switching cost and it was too early to see any differentiation. Plus the DeepSeek scare happened and convinced everyone that new models could spin up out of nowhere and take share.

That was 3 years ago. It’s remarkable how fast things change.

One: we have quickly consolidated on 3, maybe 4 models (if you include Grok). It’s really Anthropic for SaaS/code and OAI/Gemini for consumer, IMO

Two: everyone is piling into Anthropic / OpenAI shares where possible and realizing they can launch a feature in a week that’s destroying the “picks and shovels” businesses that they previously wanted to back

[CJ @zerodarkcb]

@mylesmarino @StockMKTNewz Love the concept but ordering DoorDash is part of the downfall of young men in our society and so I cannot participate. Nor do I need yet another set of credits to track

[CJ @zerodarkcb]

Sometimes I worry AI is going to one-shot replace everything anytime now, but then I also just spent a full daily not able to connect a Django app to Supabase because it's never spelled out that they don't support IPV6 connections and you have to use an IPV4 pooler. AI did not figure this out

[CJ @zerodarkcb]

My favourite investor of all time. My quick notes:

- TEVA case study. Value trapped name finally undergoing a growth cycle. Pays to be early

- Importance of mentors in public markets

- Never got deep fundamental skills; no formal education in financials and got his own book early

- (Not new for this interview) Biggest skill set is trigger pulling & sizing. When you're right, that bet had better be big, and vice versa

- Fed going to cut but we're at top of market valuation range

- Positions: Less excited about the AI trade and have reduced exposure there; increased positions in Japan and Korea; short USD; long copper (commodity)

- 18-36 month position framing, with the right to change mind immediately

- Contrarianism is overrated, the crowd is often correct. Extreme conviction > what consensus is (including if you're with consensus!)

- NVDA story (sort of a repeat of the Norges podcast). Trusted his team to analyze trends and bring him exciting ideas. Couldn't even spell the company name when they came to him. They also looked at where top graduates were going (all the shift from crypto went into AI) to work. When there's enormous changes in the market, public market investors cannot get enough, hence the massive run up. Didn't enough know the EPS of NVDA but it doesn't matter; the trend / theme was spot on. Modeling it out was irrelevant. Sold too early but still made 5-6x invested capital

- Don't unlearn anything, scars can help you out. Have more scars than you can imagine. Would throw up 1-2x per week earlier in the career. But over 15 years of imposter syndrome likely did not help

- Technical analysis has become kind of useless as it's gotten quantified / systematized

- Hates to lose, to the point where it's a sickness

[Morgan Stanley @MorganStanley]

Watch Hard Lessons, as legendary investor Stan Druckenmiller sits down with Morgan Stanley’s Iliana Bouzali, sharing how he would construct a portfolio if he had to start over today, why contrarianism is overrated, and which stock he regrets selling too early.

[CJ @zerodarkcb]

I used to actually believing that cutting the cord and signing up for streaming was going to be a benefit to the consumer.

Yet here I sit years later, paying for every sort of "plus”, pro, and Max service you can imagine, and yet every movie I'm interested in has to be rented on Amazon Prime.

All I see on streaming is “love is blind” and “selling manhattan” and other garbage reality shows. Smh I’m looking for Act of Valor and Training Day

[CJ @zerodarkcb]

@NWSReno This was at 12:20p PST in South Reno!

[CJ @zerodarkcb]

Almost at 7 inches now at noon

[CJ @zerodarkcb]

5.5 inches at 11:00am PST in South Reno @sierraavalanche

[CJ @zerodarkcb]

Being allowed to play 2 hours of Zelda Ocarina of Time while on a family trip was a peak childhood adrenaline rush

[Dave NewBlood @DaveOshry]

Hotels in america used to have N64s built into the TVs