Conjectural Capital

Then there is my rather steep fee...

[Conjectural Capital @ConjecturalCap]

@DadInvest @W2Freedom five is a nightmare

[Conjectural Capital @ConjecturalCap]

@daddycapitalx @ActAccordingly On earnings call, they just said the EV/EBITDA multiple was 20x. Looks like @ActAccordingly nailed it.

No idea why anyone would pay that multiple, though.

[Conjectural Capital @ConjecturalCap]

@Szew_invest Is that growth in KZT? It's depreciating versus the USD, so there's a likely headwind there. And the 10y yield there has spiked to 15%.

I like it, but it's not a lay up

[Conjectural Capital @ConjecturalCap]

@zain_hoda That's exactly the RAG model that Perplexity and some of the new finance-related LLMs. You're not using google, but you're using the same "find text that is about roughly the same thing as the question" model to narrow down the results.

[Conjectural Capital @ConjecturalCap]

What exactly is the plan here?

[Conjectural Capital @ConjecturalCap]

Diginix $DGNX priced its IPO at $4.10 and it's already trading at $38. Sketchy.

Company sold 2.5m shares at IPO. Rhino Ventures investors are allowed to sell their entire 3m shares. Hopefully they didn't dump them all within the first day!

[Conjectural Capital @ConjecturalCap]

They no longer have the exchange.

Management is completely different that when @IcebergResear went after their parentco, but still seems opaque.

[Conjectural Capital @ConjecturalCap]

@TechMoat It had industry-leading ROIC back when it was Ctrip. Those profits got eaten away. Chinese competition is absolutely ruthless, and I struggle to see how they’ll prevent it from happening again.

[Conjectural Capital @ConjecturalCap]

@spectercapital made these exact points when the news hit

https://t.co/Z8JKwU9POn

[Conjectural Capital @ConjecturalCap]

Of course, for a low-disclosure SPAC and spinoff, you need to trust management. $BSII

[Conjectural Capital @ConjecturalCap]

$BSII signed a merger agreement with World Media and Entertainment Universal Inc (WME).

There are minimal details about the business in the filings so far.

It was formed in 2023 to focus on a media platform. It started with $182m of capital. It owns two periodical sites.

[Conjectural Capital @ConjecturalCap]

Switching over to the SPAC sponsors, Black Spade's last deal results in $VFS.

They valued it at $23bn.

It traded below $10bn 8 months after the merger, and hasn't surpassed it since.

Not a great steward of capital.

[Conjectural Capital @ConjecturalCap]

It had a $20.8m runrate in 24Q2, with annualized growth of 44%. The operating margin was likely ~20% eyeballing the prior disclosure. That gives us $4m EBIT.

WME equity was priced at $488m. That EV/EBIT multiple is over 100x.

[Conjectural Capital @ConjecturalCap]

$BSII signed a merger agreement with World Media and Entertainment Universal Inc (WME).

There are minimal details about the business in the filings so far.

It was formed in 2023 to focus on a media platform. It started with $182m of capital. It owns two periodical sites.

[Conjectural Capital @ConjecturalCap]

$AMTD reveals a bit of information about the company. Assuming that WME is the entirety of the "Media" segment, we can scrounge some data.