Everyone is focused on record AI capex but the bigger story is that ~$2.3T of cloud backlog is already under contract and waiting to be deployed.
The demand is already there but the constraint is that the data centers, power and chips simply don't exist yet to fulfill it.
Q2 Cloud Backlog:
• $MSFT ~$678B
• $ORCL ~$638B
• $GOOGL ~$514B
• $AMZN ~$496B
Warren Buffett: “If you find 3 wonderful businesses in your life, you’ll get very rich…”
“If you look at how the fortunes were built in this country, they weren’t built out of a portfolio of 50 companies. They were built by someone who identified a wonderful business.”
BREAKING: The market now sees a record 60% chance of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September.
In other words, the market now believes Kevin Warsh's first policy move as Fed Chair will be a rate hike.
Talk about a turn of events.
The 3 "hyperscalers" added $56B in combined ARR this quarter.
Google Cloud added $19B
Amazon Web Services added $18.6B
Microsoft Azure added $18B
$GOOGL $AMZN $MSFT
If you think July was bad, rest of Q3 might just give you a stroke. When S&P 500 closed negative in both June and July, August was a coin flip.
$SPX in September was brutal, negative in 11 of 13 years. Rest of quarter was down 8 of 13 with a median drawdown of 13%
Robinhood's Prediction Markets Revenue was up 327% YoY in Q2.
"The great thing about prediction markets is there's events all the time. You mentioned football season. That's coming up. There's also the midterms... customers are going to want to trade them and hedge their portfolios."
- CEO, Vlad Tenev
$HOOD
Andy Jassy on ROIC:
"If the demand isn't there, we won't spend the capital. For servers and networking equipment, on average, it takes a little less than 3 years to break even on that investment."
$AMZN