zirp.BTC

Kindness over everything. Learning on the fly. Sharing ideas. Not financial advice.

[zirp.BTC @zirpdotbtc]

@BujokMr Feels like breakout imminence may very well be confirmed here if the rule of thumb stands.

[zirp.BTC @zirpdotbtc]

@michaelm272 They are our edge.

[zirp.BTC @zirpdotbtc]

@aaronburnett EDS at its finest. Sad what politics can do to people’s ability to reason, even those who make a career out of it.

[zirp.BTC @zirpdotbtc]

@jonwillbanks Not to mention owns over 18K $BTC and will get to about 30K if the $TSLA merger happens. No better vehicle for those seeking consolidated exposure to the SI & BTC stories.

[zirp.BTC @zirpdotbtc]

@surfranchvibes Risk is no merger at all (vote, regulatory, etc risk). Would highly recommend locking in at least a fraction of intended $SPCX exposure now just in case.

[zirp.BTC @zirpdotbtc]

@AviFelman Bullish $Sol.

[zirp.BTC @zirpdotbtc]

Trailing P/E is irrelevant as FSD subscriptions and robotaxi fleets are finally inflecting. Granted, even on a forward P/E, its expensive by traditional metrics, but $TSLA also has a massive moat in physical AI that leads to the $5T+ market cap that Elon has been predicting on the back of autonomy alone. Robotics take us to $20T+. These are obviously over longer time horizons, but that's where the compounding growth comes from and will reward the patient, whether or not any m&a takes place. The biggest risk, in my opinion, is political/key man risk on Elon, which sadly, is not trivial.

[zirp.BTC @zirpdotbtc]

Amidst all the $SPCX/$TSLA merger speculation, many are failing to realize there's a non-zero possibility that $AAPL or $GOOG makes an alternative bid for $TSLA. This is not priced in.

[zirp.BTC @zirpdotbtc]

@AndrewHiesinger @bettertrades007 It's not the car sales but rather the ramp in FSD and robotaxi fleet growth that just started inflecting. This is no longer a car company.

[zirp.BTC @zirpdotbtc]

#3 is precisely why I have been buying $TSLA exclusively…up until this week’s $SPCX earnings call, which changed things. That call made me realize the risk that most on the $TSLA side are missing is no merger at all.

As much as Elon wants it, the ability to offer up a merger of equals (which may very well be what it takes for $TSLA shareholders to approve) is dwindling by the day because $SPCX has much more explosive growth in the short term and thus giving away 50% will become harder and harder to justify to his board and shareholders as time goes on.

I hope I’m wrong as I’m heavily skewed towards $TSLA shares but now realize it’s prudent to build a separate $SPCX position as well, just in case.

[zirp.BTC @zirpdotbtc]

@farzyness …or $TSLA to backdoor into $SPCX at a cheaper price.

[zirp.BTC @zirpdotbtc]

@rajuvamsi007 Co-signed. If we’ve learned anything about Elon over the years it’s that there is a strategic rhyme and reason to everything he does. $TSLA at current prices is free money.

[zirp.BTC @zirpdotbtc]

Did the same but also struggling over the opportunity cost with $TSLA perhaps being the cheaper way in right now. How are you thinking about that? To pick $SPCX over $TSLA right now, it seems one has to believe the merger either doesn't happen, or if it does, the premium paid would be less than the current share ratio of roughly 2.6:1 (very unlikely imho).

That said, I finally justified picking up some $SPCX today rather than continuing to add to my current $TSLA position because the $SPCX call this week struck a fear in me for the first time that the possibility of no merger could actually be real given how explosive $SPCX rev growth looks like it will be in the next 12 months, which will make it difficult for Elon and the $SPCX board to justify the premium it will likely take to convince the $TSLA shareholders to accept.

Your thoughts are greatly appreciated.

[zirp.BTC @zirpdotbtc]

@munster_gene This translates to a non-zero possibility that, over the long run, $TSLA becomes the *ONLY* solution in autonomous driving. This is a very big deal and virtually nobody is pricing that in.

[zirp.BTC @zirpdotbtc]

@TSLAclassaction @elonmusk I think he knows it won’t be him cause Andrea Williams will be running the call.

[zirp.BTC @zirpdotbtc]

The fear is our chances of a merger of equals is eroding by the day because $SPCX is accelerating faster than $TSLA right now, so if the goal is to maximize value, then trading in for $SPCX now will be cheaper than at any time in the future. In fact, Elon alluding to the special committees not having come to terms yet is very likely because of exactly this. Namely, the $TSLA side is asking for the merger of equals while the $SPCX side is claiming they have a much higher ceiling and so they can’t justify giving up half.

[zirp.BTC @zirpdotbtc]

More signal than most realize. Dude’s a trillionaire and yet is perpetually engaging with the public to improve product.

But sure, make fun of him because you think his success is all from government subsidies or his aggressive timelines (clearly designed to induce acceleration) are indicative of failure or his Roadster demo wasn’t that impressive or he makes too much money and should give away free hamburgers at the Tesla diner or…

No EDS = edge.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@StephenFleming @Tesla We will add a large font option to the UI

[zirp.BTC @zirpdotbtc]

All the $TSLA bears cheering the price action today and calling the Roadster nothing but a cool product demo that will never move the bottom line needle are missing the point entirely. The engineering capability that was displayed is the story. You may not see it now but that will translate in ways you cannot even fathom. Beyond current comprehension, just like the demo itself.

[zirp.BTC @zirpdotbtc]

@DelB0yTr0tter Thank you, as always!

[zirp.BTC @zirpdotbtc]

Barclay's putting this out a day before the Roadster event is not a mere coincidence. Although they may not know of anything being imminent, the timing of this release clearly suggests that their own diligence points to the possibility.

https://t.co/fyENM59SVo

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: Elon Musk's Tesla $TSLA and SpaceX $SPCX may announce plans to merge before December, Barclays reports.