@NickDrendel Path of least resistance is still down as long as the war continues and Fed keeps it tight. Sometimes parking money in big names like Apple feels safer in uncertain times.
@StockMKTNewz Can you clarify what you mean by “Grok bought it”? Is it just the execution? Who gave it all the criteria and rules? It will be interesting to see those criteria to determine if it was the right choice.
ethereum:native 2600 should act as support to launch it to 3000. Very positive GEX all the way up to 3200. If it fails, next support at 2500. No rush keep Staking till then
Don’t sell puts just because premium looks juicy.
1/ The wheel doesn’t start with selling a put.
It starts with: would I be thrilled to own 100 shares of this at the strike?
If the answer is “eh, but the premium is fat” — skip. You’re not running a wheel. You’re collecting rent on a house you don’t want.
2/ Two outcomes on that cash-secured put — both fine if step 1 was honest:
• Stock stays above the strike → keep the credit, sell again
• Get assigned → you bought the stock you already wanted, cheaper by the premium
Assignment isn’t a failed trade. It’s the handoff into covered calls.
3/ Once you own it: sell calls you’d be happy to get called away on (above resistance / above your effective cost). Keep lowering basis. If the thesis dies, stop wheeling it — don’t turn a bad stock into a forever obligation.
HOW TO POSITION AT THE OPEN:
Risk-on lean with calm VIX, but witching + mixed Mag 7 = wait for the open range before sizing. Respect GOOGL/AVGO gaps; don’t chase. Soft META/MSFT and lagging IWM (−0.6%) say it’s not a blanket “buy everything” tape. Watch SPX around the mid-7600s / prior walls and let expiry chop settle before leaning hard.
OPEN BRIEF — Fri Sep 18
RISK: RISK-ON lean (mixed under the hood)
GOLD ~$4,356 (+0.3%) · BTC ~$78k (+~2%) · $DXY ~100.20 (flat) · WTI overnight soft third day ~$100–101 (USO now +1.1% into cash) · $VIX 15.23 (−0.21 / −1.36%) calm
Equities and BTC bid with vol calm = risk-on; dollar firmish (UUP +0.3%) and oil bouncing after the overnight fade keep it from a clean one-way tape.
BREAKING: $WTI ~$102–103 (+~2–3%), Brent ~$107 as Saudi Arabia shuts its East-West pipeline after attacks, removing a Hormuz bypass. (AP/CNBC wires)
So what: Energy bid tightens the inflation/Fed hike setup into Wednesday’s FOMC
BREAKING: $NVDA ~−3% premarket as AI stocks slide after Anthropic CEO Amodei, OpenAI’s Altman, and Musk urge a slowdown in frontier AI development; Nasdaq-100 futures ~−1.3% to −1.6%. (CNBC)
So what: Mag 7/AI growth narrative hit into FOMC week — respect the gap, don’t chase the first bounce in semis/hyperscalers. Not a buy/sell.
@TheProfInvestor Because that barely happens. The last time it was down 10 was in April 2025. You’ll be waiting years to buy stocks. Better to have a stock- or sector-level strategy or just sell 45 DTE 15 Delta Credit Spreads managed at 21
@LukeFalasca Great strategy. I also do something similar but split it between $QQQM and $SPMO to include some strong non-tech names. Do you buy the Qs at current levels or wait for a pullback?
Most people chase big directional moves.
An iron fly is the opposite bet, price chopping around— and that’s why it’s useful if you know when to deploy it. Price movement is random, but time is constant. Make the Time decay work for you.