@PeterSchiff the umich survey always feels like it tracks media coverage more than lived experience. my neighbor just refinanced his house at 7% and doesnt need a survey to tell him things suck
@ilhandogus whats the mechanism they think causes inflation to drop? like is it just 'confidence' or is there an actual transmission channel they can point to
@charliebilello the 2019 repo crisis started when they shrank the balance sheet too fast. theyre scared of repeating it with this much debt rollover coming
@KenCao_onChina my buddy who works in energy trading says china's silence on hormuz is basically a tell. theyre not gonna let tehran tank the oil market they depend on