Zach

631 | LI | #repBX | #Isles | #DallasCowboys

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Game, set and match

[Micah Parsons @MicahhParsons11]

I told yall ima automatic double double!!

[Micah Parsons @MicahhParsons11]

Legendary!!!

[Micah Parsons @MicahhParsons11]

He been around the dline room too long man..

[Jeff Passan @JeffPassan]

Shohei Ohtani has agreed to sign with the Los Angeles Angels.

[New York Yankees @Yankees]

Jon Soto appears headed to Yankees

[Zach @zxchjames]

@JLasagna43 Not good enough

[Dallas Cowboys @dallascowboys]

🤐🤐🤐

@MicahhParsons11 brought the 🔥 on The Edge this week.

🎥 @BleacherReport

[Yankees Slut @yankeeslite]

The Yankees are in a dangerous moment

More uncertainty faces the 2024 roster than has faced the team in quite some time. Here's how I would categorize the state of Yankees' players heading into next season:

Highly Certain:

Torres, Judge, Cole.

Somewhat Uncertain:

Schmidt, bullpen (collective, 8 total)*

Very Uncertain:

Rizzo, Volpe, LeMahieu, Cabrera, Stanton, Peraza, Pereira, Wells, Dominguez, German, Rodon, Brito

This list represents 24 players on a theoretical 26-man roster, and it includes everyone I assume are a default to make the roster, as of today.

Uncertainty is standard, even on the best of teams, but the degree to which the Yankees are decked with "very" uncertain players is troubling in regard to their ability to assess their own roster, it's competitiveness in 2024, and what is needed from the market.

There are really only 3 ways the Yankees can proceed this winter:

1. Invest heavily in the roster, via free agents and/or trades:

Pros:
-Maximizes odds for 2024
-Could render NYY a championship contender if many of their built-in uncertainties pan out
-Could help team in future seasons if requisite young/developed Yankees succeed.

Cons:
-Big additions still wouldn't reduce 2024 risks to comfortable levels, relative to the league.
-If team collapses again in 2024 despite big investments, NYY will find themselves in a really tough spot going forward.

2. Have a cautious offseason, ranging from low activity to high activity, but no large investments:

Pros:
-Allows NYY to give most or all of their young players a full audition, so that they can know what their actual needs are, and not misallocate.
-If team collapses in 2024, NYY is more flexible to embark on a reset.

Cons:
-If team does well in 2024, opportunity to have supplemented with key FAs from the previous offseason will have been missed.
-Not making a full run for a title in a season in the middle of the prime of Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole

3. Strip it all down, reset immediately:

Pros:
-Would give the Yankees a chance to, maybe, develop a roster with better foundation more expeditiously than otherwise.

Cons:
-Timing is completely wrong for this. They are just now bringing a new set of kids to MLB, and are also carrying multiple superstars in their prime.

My take?

Option 3 is out of the question, both from my perspective and the Yankees. Between option 1 and option 2, I'm not all that sure where the Yankees will land, and to be honest, I'm struggling with it too.

By not setting up 2023 properly, the Yankees have already done damage to 2024. There were a bevy of great position players available in the 2022-2023 offseason. Had the Yankees acquired some of them, not only would they likely have made the playoffs, they would also likely be looking at a 2024 team with a clear acquisition path.

Instead, the Yankees said, "our farm is filled with position players. Outside of Judge, we are not adding any long-term talent who could block their path."

That's a fine plan, but are we supposed to believe that they can adequately construct championship contenders, while simultaneously flooding their roster with rookies? The timing doesn't make sense.

The commitment was already made. The veteran players were transitory. Half are gone, and most of the others are completely uncertain. It's in the kid's hands, whether they add Cody Bellinger or not.

We can take the attitude: "it is what it is, may as well give ourselves the best reasonable shot in '24".

But we need to consider: if NYY invests heavily, and the team still collapses this coming season, they would find themselves in a devastating set of circumstances. They would be invested in 6-7 expensive, long-term contracts, and not have a competitive team. If they don't find success in at least several of the young players, the immediate 5-7 year future becomes completely hopeless.

If John Henry ran the Yankees, it wouldn't be a 5-7 year problem. It would be a 1-2 year problem. He would slash, burn, and move on. But John Henry doesn't run the Yankees. Hal Steinbrenner does. Hal Steinbrenner with his multi-decade tenured front office, and investor consortium. What would Hal do in this situation? Would he desperately try to salvage his corpse of a roster, year in and year out, doing everything creative in his limited flexibility to make them an outside 6th-seed contender every year? I'm afraid he might.

So yes, skirting another year of Judge & Cole's prime is horrific. I can't believe we're even facing that. But it may have already been done.

Cole and Judge will very likely have multiple good seasons in them after 2024, possibly many. We shouldn't burn those to the ground, along with all or most of the pre-FA years of NYY's kids, for the sake of an improbable, high-risk, 1-season effort.

Would I be shocked to see the Yankees rebound in a big way next year? Not at all. They have the pieces and the upside to make that happen.

But I would "not be shocked" in the same way that I would "not be shocked" if the San Fransisco Giants did, or Cleveland Guardians did.

Assembling a core of question marks and throwing yourself fully to the winds of chance is fundamentally not how you build a team in a big market.

*I listed "bullpen" as 8 collective players, because there's too much turnover in bullpens to predict specific names. All bullpens in baseball are at least "somewhat uncertain" as a default, and I think NYY's pitching program and track record earns them the right to not be considered "very uncertain".

[Yankees Slut @yankeeslite]

Breaking down the performance of each Yankees' rookie in 2023:

Everson Pereira:

Pereira was the least-productive Yankees rookie, posting a 23 wRC+ in 103 plate appearances. Despite great hard-hit numbers, his expected stats were abysmal. He essentially hit no fly balls.

This, on top of an astronomical whiff rate, rendered Pereira's bat very green.

A positive sign for Pereira is that he had a very high zone swing-rate (79.5%) compared to league average (68.8%), while his chase rate (32.4%) was in line with the average (31.9%). This means he was seeing the ball well and making good swing choices.

Given his natural power, and need for both increased launch and increased contact, Pereira might be the perfect profile hitter to visit Aaron Judge's guru, Richard Schenck.

Pereira's sprint speed was above average, and his defense was better than what the Yankees have received in LF in quite some time. In that department, Pereira looked like a veteran.

Jasson Dominguez:

While there's no question that Dominguez was the most electric of any Yankees' rookie in 2023, he also had the smallest sample size. In his 8 games (33 PA), he hit to a 162 wRC+, including 4 home runs.

So many things were impressive regarding Domingez: his poise, his acceleration through the system, and the immediate sophistication of his plate approach.

He had a below-average chase-rate (27.7%), very high contact rate (81.8%), and crushed both fastballs (.390 xwOBA), and breaking balls (.430 xwOBA). The latter is especially impressive, as it's very rare for a rookie to have immediate success against multiple pitch categories.

Even better, in his small sample Dominguez featured a 55.6% pull-rate as a left-handed hitter, and a mere 20% pull-rate as a right-handed hitter. If those tendencies apply at scale, could anyone be more suited for Yankee Stadium?

Not much can be said about Dominguez' defense, but it has so far appeared competent. His 76th percentile sprint speed is super impressive amidst everything else.

He's got a lot to show, especially coming off TJS, but he's got everything you could want.

Oswald Peraza:

What Peraza provides offensively remains a mystery.

In his MLB sample (now 248 PA), he has hit to a 74 wRC+, with pretty poor quality of contact metrics, and a very non-diverse spray chart.

Much was made of his choice to revert "back" to a high leg kick in early September, but even after doing so he hit to a 72 wRC+ through the remainder of the season.

If that's ultimately where he lives in his career, he could profile similar to an Andrelton Simmons, which would be MLB-caliber, but probably not starting-caliber.

It's tough to say however, as Peraza has at times displayed natural power, and has still not been granted an extended run of consistent at bats

Ultimately, Peraza's scouting grades never loved his offense, but "sub-optimal offense" could fall within a wide range, and we need to know where he falls.

His 84th-percentile sprint speed, on theme with the other rookies, helps his case a bit.

While Peraza's defensive skills are state-of-the-art, it is worth noting that his combined DRS in 550 MLB innings at 3B, SS, and 2B is 0, while his combined OAA is only +1. I expect these metrics to skyrocket based on what we know and have seen from him, but without production here, his staying power is low.

Anthony Volpe:

Volpe's rookie season from a production standpoint was frankly a little disappointing.

While I expected a (possibly multi-month) adjustment period for the shortstop, I thought he'd ultimately land somewhere better than an 84 wRC+ at season's end.

The good news is that he did make multiple breakthroughs.

His first breakthrough began in late April, when through his reps he began to recognize pitch location and sequencing better, and started to rip fastballs for extra base hits (.365 xwOBA from 4/24-5/19). He was quickly exposed for selling out for fastballs, as he was flying open and pulling off. His success plummeted for about a month, until the famous "chicken parm" incident in mid-June, where he closed up his stance and restricted his "pulling off" tendency. This lead to a 2.5-month run of success for Volpe (mid June-end of August), in which he hit to a 124 wRC+ and a .332 xwOBA. He continued to predominantly do his damage on fastballs, but his whiff rate on all 3 pitch categories began to plummet (extending at bats). While he was continuing to pull home runs, his overall spray chart began to shift to center and right field. Volpe's production began to taper off again and ultimately fall off a cliff in September. Aaron Boone attributed this in some part to fatigue, though it's hard to say. Volpe's ground ball rate shot up that month, which could be a sign of physical compromise.

Volpe did have a strong defensive season (+16 DRS, +1 OAA), but the discrepancy of DRS to OAA should be noted, as well as the errors (17). This is not so dissimilar from the dynamic of IKF in 2022 (+10 DRS, -1 OAA, 15 errors). Volpe's performance still beats IKF's, but it is possible that the Yankees' defensive positioning/pitchers are having an outsized influence on their DRS. Ultimately, Volpe's defensive mechanics are very sound (unlike IKF), and I think we have good reason to expect him to cut down on his errors going forward. His arm strength is better than many elite defensive shortstops (Swanson, Lindor, Story), and is not an impediment in any way.

Like everyone else, Volpe's sprint speed (79th percentile) is exceptional, and is a major feature of his game. I was disappointed that his attempted steals/opportunity declined so much in the second half, but 24 is a very strong number.

My favorite stat of Volpe's 2023 season was: 159 games played.

Perhaps this lead to some fatigue at the end, but assuming he assimilates to the workload, that kind of durability is a godsend.

I have as much confidence as ever that Volpe will be a great player in this game, but because he hasn't done it yet over a full season, it still can't be accounted for as a given (like, at all).

Austin Wells:

Austin Wells was touted as a poor-defensive, strong-offensive catcher, and the more his sample size grew in 2023, the more that appeared to be correct.

Wells' rolling xwOBA chart over the month of September is a clean upward curve. The more pitches he saw, the better he performed.

Like most rookies, Wells primarily did his damage against fastballs (.449 xwOBA), but still held his own against offspeed (.313 xwOBA). Wells displayed a lot of power. His spray chart was fairly diverse, but he also pulled fly balls at a pretty high rate.

Wells' strikeout rate was also a mere 18.7%.

Wells didn't get a ton of opportunities against left-handed pitching. In the 6 plate appearances he did have, he went 0-6. This is obviously something to watch in 2024.

Wells' defensive numbers weren't atrocious, but they weren't great. His blocking and pop time ranked poorly, and he played to a -2 DRS. His framing did pretty decently, about league average.

Where Wells seemed to impress was his relationships with his pitchers. Several Yankees pitchers raved about Wells' preparation, game calling, and adaptations to their styles. Are there any tangible ways to measure this? Wells' catcher ERA was 4.50, which is worst among Yankees' catchers, but he did catch most of Carlos Rodon's starts in September, and non of Gerrit Coles, which is why cERA is kind of bunk. Something to explore further.

Wells is the only Yankees rookie to not feature great sprint speed, but he's a catcher, so this is to be expected.

I expect Wells to get most of the starts against right-handed pitchers in 2024, and if he can demonstrates that he can hit lefties, he'll probably become the outright starter.

Oswaldo Cabrera:

I did a deep dive into what went wrong with Oswaldo Cabrera in the first half of 2023 (https://t.co/jgdUgz16nr), in which I speculated that Cabrera might be best suited for a high-LA/high-BB approach. To my surprise, he found some success in the second half of the season with a very different style.

From July 1st through the end of August, Cabrera posted a 125 wRC+, which was predicated on a high walk-rate (15.7%), but also a very low launch angle (9.3 LA, 28.6% fly ball rate).

Cabrera was assuming a "Punch & Judy" moniker. Gone were the days of rolling over ground balls. He was spraying it everywhere (31% pull, 34.5% center, 34.5% oppo), and making speed his asset.

How sustainable of an approach this is for Cabrera is a separate question. Cabrera's contact rate in this stretch was a low 72.6% (hard to imagine maintaining BA with poor contact), and he was outperforming his xwOBA. Ultimately he crashed hard in September, posting a 51 wRC+ for the month.

Ultimately, my offensive standards for Cabrera are not high. Anything higher than an 85 wRC+ would render him a super-utility weapon. If he finds his way there as a BA-guy, all "power" to him.

Cabrera's defense regressed in 2023 (-2 DRS in the infield, -4 in the outfield). It's possible his offensive struggles were seeping into other areas of his game. Ultimately I'm not concerned there.

Cabrera's sprint speed, in line with the trend, was above average.

Oswaldo Cabrera profiles as a super utility bench player, who's primary strength is infield defense. Trying to pigeon-hole him into the starting LF role, I think was a stupid choice, and something he was not equipped for.

I expect him to be a cog on the MLB bench going forward.

Jhony Brito:

Brito's season numbers (4.28 ERA, 4.66 xFIP) are not all that impressive, but a simple adjustment in his mix has probably set him up for better times ahead.

Brito entered the season pummeling the strike zone with sinkers- something the league adjusted to by July.

Brito made a couple of key adjustments in August/September (primarily in a long-relief role), which have increased his success:

1. Increase usage of 4S FB in tandem with sinker. Two differently shaped fastballs creates difficulty for hitters, and makes his best pitch (change up) even more effective.

2. Fewer curveballs in the zone. This pitch was getting rocked, and was more effective off the plate, as a "play-off" pitch. Next year maybe a consideration to cut, while developing slider more.

The fastball mix allowed Brito to throw both pitches for strikes at a higher rate, and regain his old efficiency. I don't believe moving to the bullpen played much of a role in this improved performance. It had little to do with increased velo, higher quality of stuff, or anything like that.

I think Brito could be an effective SP, but he needs a better breaking ball. I hope he plays a role for the team next year, but not in the planned starting 5.

Randy Vásquez

Vásquez was a pretty interesting case. While he posted a 2.87 ERA, that came with a 5.23 xERA, 4.98 FIP, and 5.28 xFIP. In other words, his expected numbers across the board were really bad.

His innings sample was a mere 37.2 IP, and I think it's pretty obvious that given more time, things would have turned south pretty quickly.

His 1.274 WHIP was met with a 88.9% LOB%. Two of his three fastballs (sinker, cutter) were getting shelled, and the third (four seam) was low-velo, not particularly high spin, and getting a lot of the middle of the plate. If there was a reason other than luck/unfamiliarity that he was eliciting weak contact, I'm not privy to it.

One positive for Vásquez is that his arsenal is very deep. He had 6 different pitches that ranged from 10-26% usage. The change up and curveball in particular seemed very strong. If he can improve 1-2 of his fastballs, he'll have a foundation.

Overall, I'm not excited for Vásquez, and I hope he doesn't factor into the Yankees' initial plans in 2024.

Estevan Florial (honorable mention):

Is Florial still a rookie? As far as his contract, and MLB sample size are concerned, he is.

Did he show us anything new this year on the MLB side? Not really. Per usual he showed low chase and some OBP, very low contact on pitches in the zone, and very weak contact on balls in play.

Florial has plenty of natural power, but he fully sells out for fastballs, which is why his AAA ceiling is so high, and his MLB ceiling is so low.

If his bat could be adjusted mechanically, I'd think that would have happened by now.

I'll always root for a miracle in his case, as his defense is sound and he is probably the fastest player in the entire organization (94th percentile sprint speed).

Should the Yankees think of him as someone who would even compete for an MLB job next year? Absolutely not.

Wrap Up:

In total, the Yankees rostered eight (nine?) rookies who were played regularly at some point during the season.

This mostly took place from late August thru September, where the Yankees put up their only winning stretch of the season outside of May.

The Yankees' late-season "success" is probably overly-attributed to the rookies. From August 28th, through the end of the season, the Yankees ranked 21st in wRC+, and 24th in runs. Both are in line with their season ranking.

It was their pitching that aided them in this time, as they ranked 2nd in pitching WAR, and 8th in ERA.

Jasson Domingez lead the team to some wins, Austin Wells had a ton of impact toward the end, and Jhony Brito was exceptional, but that's basically the extent of the rookies' contributions to the late-season run.

There's a lot to like, but there's even more to prove.

[Zach @zxchjames]

@JoezMcfLy Who would you consider the Daniel jones of the Yankees?

[Trevor Bauer (トレバー・バウアー) @BauerOutage]

2 years later and I can finally talk about this ⬇️

[Dallas Cowboys @dallascowboys]

On the scene 🎬

#NEvsDAL | @blockchain

[Zach @zxchjames]

@TalkinYanks @MaxTGoodman Looks like a normal day in Oakland

[Dallas Cowboys @dallascowboys]

Desert Drip 🌵⭐️

[Micah Parsons @MicahhParsons11]

COWBOYS NATION!! We coming !! 🦁😤 #doomsday

[Dallas Cowboys @dallascowboys]

We Run New York 😤

#NYJvsDAL | @WinStarWorld

[Dallas Cowboys @dallascowboys]

You know @TrevonDiggs had to get a pick of his own 🤪

[Bleacher Report @BleacherReport]

In the Giants last 6 quarters...

Points scored: 0
Points allowed: 60

[Ian Rapoport @RapSheet]

#Jets QB Aaron Rodgers: “I shall rise yet again.” https://t.co/MAgGwmNJP7