Light/Shadow

Hope empowers us, and the wisdom lies in seeing it.

[Light/Shadow @0101world]

@Sekihei5i 人家不知大义咋就有民主自由了？

[Light/Shadow @0101world]

@darrencao2024 我明天买。不知会不会多跌点😂

[Light/Shadow @0101world]

@LemonTreeandSea @Bairizefeibai7 😻

[Light/Shadow @0101world]

@Jasonlu_hk 新加坡也是

[Light/Shadow @0101world]

@wugudehaore 不是里面有网易音乐吗

[Leo 的宏观笔记 @Leooo2099]

很多人买AI内存，眼睛只盯着HBM。

但真正的短缺比这个大得多。

高盛和摩根大通的判断是一致的：这次内存短缺已经超出正常周期，从2024年到2027年，DRAM、NAND、HBM的供需缺口会持续扩大。

这不是简单一两个季度的事，是多年的价格上涨周期。

原因也很简单：HBM装在GPU旁边，是AI训练最直接的瓶颈，这个大家都知道，但现在AI推理工作负载也在快速增长，推理需要的是服务器DRAM和企业级SSD，不是HBM。

也就是说，整条内存产业链从上到下都在同时承压。

这个赛道里的五家公司各自覆盖不同层次：

美光是美国唯一能同时做HBM、DRAM、NAND、SSD的公司，云服务商为了供应链多元化会越来越依赖它。

下一财年营收增长188%预期，市盈率11.1倍，相对周期高点估值还不极端。

海力士是HBM最清晰的领导者，英伟达的核心供应商，新晶圆产能和逻辑节点升级让护城河越来越宽，212%营收增长预期，估值6.3倍。

闪迪和NAND的关系最直接，云服务商把活跃数据从慢存储迁移到密集闪存阵列，闪迪是这个趋势最直接的受益者。209%营收增长，但估值已经到12.6倍，相对其他贵一些。

三星覆盖面最广，HBM、DRAM、NAND、SSD全做，追踪内存周期最多元化的方式，但HBM良率一直是它的软肋。

Kioxia专注NAND，311%的营收增长预期是这组里最高的，但9.7倍的估值也是最贵的。

把这五家放在一起看，有一个规律：营收增速越高的，估值反而不一定最贵。

市场对这个赛道的定价还没有完全反映出供需缺口的持续性。

如果AI推理需求按预期扩张，DRAM、NAND、HBM会成为整个AI技术栈里最持久的瓶颈。

未来这个逻辑会被反复验证。

[Light/Shadow @0101world]

@wangchangfu88 越落后女性越被物化

[Light/Shadow @0101world]

@whyyoutouzhele 每一个字就是一滩血。老毛属饿鬼道

[Light/Shadow @0101world]

@LemonTreeandSea @BTCdayu @grok 铁链女无法统计

[Light/Shadow @0101world]

@LemonTreeandSea @NEO_Diver 不是赵家人就别回。

[Light/Shadow @0101world]

@yo_yan14480 天哪。发票给搜到了？

[Light/Shadow @0101world]

@sino_go_global @AI4Azure 谢谢

[Light/Shadow @0101world]

@ChrisWa45464493 @yugi_odityaneth @mujifren Yes

[Light/Shadow @0101world]

@suanguaa 如果是个黑人会咋整？

[Light/Shadow @0101world]

英国强奸团伙强奸贩运和折磨25万工人家庭白人女孩。犯罪分子穆斯林占比78%到90%。调查报告此位博主有贴出链接。
地狱空荡荡，魔鬼在人间。

[Libs of TikTok @libsoftiktok]

The UK rape gang inquiry report just dropped and it should make your blood boil:

1. At least 250,000 young White girls were groomed, raped, trafficked, and tortured.

2. Perpetrators followed consistent tactics of befriending vulnerable girls as young as 11 with gifts, drugs, and alcohol before subjecting them to group rapes, violence, blackmail, pregnancies, forced conversions, and trafficking.

3. UK institutions—including police, social services, schools, NHS, and politicians—catastrophically failed victims through denial, ignored reports, criminalization of victims, destruction of evidence, and prioritization of political correctness and fears of “racism” accusations over child protection.

4. 87–95% of convicted perpetrators in group-based child sexual exploitation cases were Muslim. It was predominantly Muslim Pakistani gangs. They operated across 149 local authority districts. Groups from Somali,
Iranian, Syrian, Turkish, and other Muslim origins were also involved.

5. The Muslim perpetrators operated under an honour- and
shame-based clan code that treated non-Muslim girls, especially White working class girls, as property available for sexual use. Girls were told that they’re “White trash” who deserved punishment.

People need to go to prison for this.

[Light/Shadow @0101world]

@Brigitt08184092 @welt I just don't like halal food. If you like it, you can eat it, but don't force others to. Have some morals and manners. Does multiculturalism necessarily mean demanding halal food?

[Light/Shadow @0101world]

@ABCChinese 移民到澳洲随时给你一顶伊斯兰恐惧症帽子也是挺新鲜

[Light/Shadow @0101world]

@__Inty__ 这样说德国能源全部依赖俄罗斯，乌克兰就不会被侵略😹
总之精神小伙最近舞台特大，展现自己文公武略后，下次选举真的好悬。

[Light/Shadow @0101world]

@thefanda2 @ziding_zhou 祝一生平安

[Light/Shadow @0101world]

说明大基建的电力瓶颈才刚刚开始。用铜传输现在不是问题。等电力瓶颈突破才属光的世界。
如今最硬核的依然是存储。

[RJC @RJCcapital]

Morgan Stanley: “Optical Content Growing. Regardless of Architecture.”

Morgan Stanley’s latest optical report pushes back on the idea that the CPO vs. NPO debate changes the broader demand trajectory for optical content. The core argument is that investors may be over-indexing on architecture timing, while the more important variable remains bandwidth growth. Whether the market ultimately scales through pluggable optics, NPO, CPO, OBO, or hybrid architectures, the need for higher bandwidth should continue to drive more optical engines, lasers, and related content per GPU/rack.

The report acknowledges that CPO adoption has meaningful timing and execution uncertainty. Packaging complexity, lower yields, troubleshooting difficulty, ecosystem immaturity, and customer reluctance around serviceability all remain real constraints. That is why Morgan Stanley frames the current debate less as a question of whether optics wins and more as a question of when and through which architecture the industry scales.

Importantly, the report still points to optical content rising materially as AI networks move from current architectures toward copper/CPO hybrid and eventually fuller CPO configurations. Morgan Stanley estimates optical engines per GPU increase substantially across each step of that architecture transition, with the demand driver tied less to a specific design choice and more to the underlying bandwidth requirement.

The market reaction in optical names appears to reflect concern that slower CPO timing could delay the upside case. Morgan Stanley’s framing is more balanced: conservative assumptions on CPO timing may keep stocks away from the most aggressive bull cases for now, but the underlying content expansion remains intact. For $LITE, $COHR and $GLW, the debate is not whether AI infrastructure requires more optics, but how quickly that demand converts into revenue as architectures evolve.