zerochart

“I am still concerned that one day you’ll see a break like you had a few weeks ago but it won’t come back” - Carl Icahn, Nov-14

[Lance Roberts @LanceRoberts]

Positioning update: Exposure to #equities, and in particular the #Mag7, is not at extremes. Such provides some support to the current #market if they are forced to start buying heading into quarter end.
h/t @ISABELNET_SA

[Alex Joosten @joosteninvestor]

🇺🇸🌍 US equities are trading at a forward P/E that’s 53% higher than global equities (ex-US).

[David Marlin @Marlin_Capital]

CTA positioning in US equities officially sits in the 100th percentile and is now max long.

$SPY $QQQ $IWM

[ACEMAXX ANALYTICS @acemaxx]

Forces for the steepening, or widening of the long-duration term premium, to its highest level in 4y, include concerns about US debt and #deficits and rising supply of long-duration #debt around the world, chart @MorganStanley

[ACEMAXX ANALYTICS @acemaxx]

10y UST term premium (0.4935%) is still historically low, chart @NordeaMarkets

[Seth Golden @SethCL]

Holy Moses do the A.I. Focused fund flows look parabolic... and like Moses parting the see, that wall of water eventually collapsed... and like the Egyptian legion they didn't know when the wall of water would collapse.

[Lance Roberts @LanceRoberts]

I just keep coming back this chart.
The #market is not as "healthy" as it seems on the surface when #earnings growth for the ENTIRE #index is only coming from a handful of #stocks.

[hedgopia @hedgopia]

How #hedgefunds are positioned in futures. $TNX $TYX $SPX $RUT $NDX $VIX $GLD $EUR $USD $WTI https://t.co/dj2p6Fx9Lt

[JH @CRUDEOIL231]

Although it is not as significant as the IEA's ~4mb/d surplus, global observable oil inventories are actually increasing.

Of course if a surplus of ~4mb/d were expected, as in the IEA's balance, oil prices would have already collapsed. Therefore it is unlikely to be that significant.

However the balance for the Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 is definitely weak. Oil prices may soon test the low point of the liberation day.

#oott #com

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Risk appetite is skyrocketing:

The Speculative Trading Indicator just posted one of its sharpest 3-month spikes on record, according to Goldman Sachs.

This indicator tracks trading volumes in penny stocks, unprofitable companies, and stocks with EV/sales above 10x.

Historically, only the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble and the 2020–2021 meme stock mania saw larger jumps.

Furthermore, penny stock and high-multiple stock trading volume has ranked in the top 2% and 4% of all months since 1990.

Unprofitable stock trading ranked in the top 15%.

Speculative trading has gone parabolic.

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

‼️HOLY COW:

US leveraged equity exchange-traded products' Assets Under Management hit ~$120 BILLION, an all-time high.

In 2022, the asset size of these products was ~3 TIMES lower.

Over the last 5 years, trading these risk products has skyrocketed.

Incredible.

[ACEMAXX ANALYTICS @acemaxx]

Key drivers include companies at the heart of the #AI ecosystem—hardware, #software, data #infrastructure - delivering above-market earnings growth and raising forward guidance, chart @JPMorganAM

[Bespoke @bespokeinvest]

You can almost see the "Ex Mag 7" on this chart when looking at the Bloomberg Mag 7's gain of 2,800% since inception in 2015. Almost...

Bloomberg Mag 7 since March 2015: +2,800%
Bloomberg 500 Ex Mag 7 since March 2015: +129%

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

Harnett BofA: S&P 500 forward P/E 22.5x…95th percentile since 1988

But this isn't your grandfather's S&P 500

[Nate Geraci @NateGeraci]

Record trading volume for spot eth ETFs…

Look at this chart.

Good indication that institutional investors getting more involved.

via @sidcoins

[Mo Hossain @MoHossain]

𝐄𝐥𝐞𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐬𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝-𝐥𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥 𝐛𝐮𝐲𝐛𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐬.

🇺🇸US companies are setting new records in 2025 buybacks—$983.6 billion repurchased so far and on pace for $1.1 trillion+ by year-end. This mega repurchase spree is supercharging balance sheets and fueling the US stock rally 🚀📈

https://t.co/dG8aCU0EzB

More via @wsj ⬇️
https://t.co/TOikkeUqJ1 #news #Buybacks #Investing #compensation #inflation #deregulation

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

S&P 500 announced buybacks.. marching toward $1 trillion in 2025 rather quickly. Record pace. JPM

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

Here comes the Chinese credit cycle again!

Not discounted imho

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

Europe, Japan continue to beat the SPX ex-NVDA

[FactSet @FactSet]

The forward 12-month P/E ratio for $SPX is 22.1, which is above the 5-year average (19.9) and above the 10-year average (18.4). #earnings, #earningsinsight, https://t.co/uLuu1MduKW