พี่ Invisible hand แห่ง Thai VI กล่าวว่า ถ้ามือใหม่มาเล่นหุ้นวัฏจักร ก็คงเหมือนเราหัดว่ายน้ำด้วยท่าผีเสื้อเป็นท่าแรก เกรงว่ากว่าจะว่ายน้ำเป็นก็อาจจะจมน้ำตายเสียก่อน
There are times when multiple headwinds align, and history suggests this may be one of them. August–September has been the weakest two-month stretch for the S&P 500 over the past 37 years, while August–October has produced the weakest average three-month returns. This year also falls in the second year of the four-year cycle, a period that has historically been even more challenging.
The concern grows when rising bond yields and higher energy prices enter the equation. The last notable example was 2022. Similar conditions also developed in 1990, during the Gulf War, and in 1987, ahead of the October crash. In each case, bond yields moved higher, energy prices strengthened, and stocks struggled as yields regained an inverse relationship with equities.
Today, the setup is familiar. The S&P GSCI Energy Index has surged roughly 30% in just five weeks, while global bond yields have climbed to their highest levels since the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. Meanwhile, the inverse correlation between bond yields and equities is the strongest it's been in decades.
History never repeats exactly, but it often rhymes. Strong earnings, resilient economic growth, or easing geopolitical tensions could certainly allow the market to buck these seasonal tendencies. But with multiple historical headwinds lining up, going into August/September is a time for discipline, prudent risk management, and letting the evidence—not opinions—guide your decisions.
https://t.co/JXzFFTmMtn
Here’s the full $ARM trade w buys, trims, adds, and final sell. It was one of my better trades considering just over 2mo.
(I did try a small add 2x earlier in week for small intraday losses not on chart.)
$148.96 was the buy on 4/13 on this subtle reclaim 2nd pic.
Hermes Agent now has multi-agent via the Kanban, new in v0.12.0.
Agents claim tasks from a board, work in parallel, and hand off when blocked. You watch progress and unblock from one easy view instead of juggling terminals.
We asked it to plan and make this video about itself: