How trader prints $180k+ PnL on Polymarket using Expected Value Gap formula
Formula:
EV = (p_true - price) * payout
(payout = 1/price; entry if EV > 0.05 after fees)
Big Net Flow (>2× avg vol) + wide spread → temporary spike → fade opposite side
- Scan illiquid/high-vol markets
- Stack with Order Book Imbalance (>0.3 no follow-through) & RTS (>0.5)
- 60%+ reversion rate → $300–1k/day on $10k bank with 5–10 trades
Automate via https://t.co/dj5w7uWR8T
His edge:
- High-freq 5-min BTC/ETH Up/Down markets
- Tiny positions ($0.5–$90), hundreds/day → compounds small reversions
- Don't chase headlines - fade distortions