jon becker

any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. senior software engineer @coinbase

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

0/ i analyzed every single trade on kalshi from 2021 to 2025.

i found a systematic wealth transfer where "takers" pay a massive premium for affirmative outcomes, and "makers" harvest the edge without needing to predict the future.

here is the data

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@gakonst retail?

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@ArchiveExplorer 🫡

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@krtbgb @ArchiveExplorer i was wondering where the followers were coming from

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@AlterEgo_eth nice

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@jdietztweets hey! yeah, that could definitely be a factor. financial markets tend to be drier topics with clearer resolution rules, and participants can usually make more informed trades since they’re tied to concrete, quantifiable outcomes (e.g. spx closing above x)

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@androolloyd @Yaugourt lfg!!!

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@WhiteHatMage heimdall mentioned 🥹

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@martkiro @Cloudflare lfg!!

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@Alpha_618 @martkiro @Polymarket this is orderbook data

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@C0NWIC @martkiro @Polymarket i don’t include orderbook data

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@_ilovemodels @Cloudflare W this is massive

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

added polymarket data to the public dataset.

400m+ trades going back to 2020.

36gb compressed.

MIT licensed, free to download via @Cloudflare R2.

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@_ilovemodels LFG

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@adf_energy_twt @Cloudflare i used @ankr as the rpc provider

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@_ilovemodels @Cloudflare huge

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@aiden0x4 @Cloudflare gemini is claiming 39 cents for the month but that surely can’t be right. im well under free tier limits right now according to the dash

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@aiden0x4 @Cloudflare we’re gonna find out when the r2 bill hits

napkin math says not much (i’m praying)

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@jgwtt too large for LFS, had to host in r2

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@_ilovemodels @Cloudflare +1

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@crymore_johndoe not yet, may consider sourcing that data in the future

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

> what can i do with this data?

make sick visualizations, perform deep data analysis, contribute to prediction market research, ...

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

added polymarket data to the public dataset.

400m+ trades going back to 2020.

36gb compressed.

MIT licensed, free to download via @Cloudflare R2.