0/ i analyzed every single trade on kalshi from 2021 to 2025.
i found a systematic wealth transfer where "takers" pay a massive premium for affirmative outcomes, and "makers" harvest the edge without needing to predict the future.
here is the data
@jdietztweets hey! yeah, that could definitely be a factor. financial markets tend to be drier topics with clearer resolution rules, and participants can usually make more informed trades since theyβre tied to concrete, quantifiable outcomes (e.g. spx closing above x)
@aiden0x4@Cloudflare gemini is claiming 39 cents for the month but that surely canβt be right. im well under free tier limits right now according to the dash