jon becker

any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. senior software engineer @coinbase

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

0/ i analyzed every single trade on kalshi from 2021 to 2025.

i found a systematic wealth transfer where "takers" pay a massive premium for affirmative outcomes, and "makers" harvest the edge without needing to predict the future.

here is the data

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@mykcryptodev @myk_clawd @bankrbot @cankeremgurel @abdullaalkamil @joaniekcusack @dylanorrell @0xDeployer @KQpewpew @taylor_ @primo_data @zosegal @KieranOnBase 2/2 lfg

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@mykcryptodev @Polymarket @dylanorrell @base this is so sick

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@antiochrobotics @GreylockVC @A_StarVC @Category_VC @BoxGroup @IcehouseVenture huge

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@PendulumFlow massive

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@yeungghopper 🦦

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

weth9 on heimdall 0.9.3+nightly.d7d8985

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

* this includes no llm postprocessing pass

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@MickBransfield 5.8m is the sparsest decile bucket. this is plotted from 72.1m trades.

in our formalized paper we will extend coverage to 1.26b trades.

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

prediction markets are remarkably accurate

[Brian Armstrong @brian_armstrong]

Prediction markets are the ultimate form of truth seeking. When there’s skin in the game, the output is far more reliable. Everything else is biased by someone's agenda. I think we’ll look back at prediction markets as a breakthrough in how we discover truth in the world.

Prediction markets are now fully live in the U.S. on Coinbase, you can trade what’s happening in sports, politics, culture, news, and more.

Update your app and look for the "Predict" tab at the bottom.

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@MickBransfield https://t.co/iBl1wcilJp

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@tbonier https://t.co/NBtaO0dWZa

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

prediction markets are remarkably accurate

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@PendulumFlow w

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@mewwts +1 for coconut

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

I don't have the exact number of markets investigated in my paper off hand, but the Kalshi study is likely larger as their data is more up-to-date. I think you're comparing trades and markets.

I will be updating the paper to include trades and markets up to August 2026, however.

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@Foster correlation does not imply causation

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@lzminsky similar situation, fiance introduced me to anime. solo leveling is peak

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@obiokeke_ thanks chief 🫡

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

The Microstructure of Wealth Transfer in Prediction Markets

https://t.co/ETPYLbJ7gN

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@bananafish_bets i’m glad you find it insightful :)

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@roundrobin42 thanks chief

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@MickBransfield ah sorry, yea i meant how is this problematic for the prediction markets.

i’ll take this feedback into account for revisions. thanks!

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

formalized

https://t.co/ETPYLbJ7gN

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

0/ i analyzed every single trade on kalshi from 2021 to 2025.

i found a systematic wealth transfer where "takers" pay a massive premium for affirmative outcomes, and "makers" harvest the edge without needing to predict the future.

here is the data

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

@michael_lwy 🦦