MagicMaker

Partnerships and Developer Relations @magicmarkets

Building a clearing house for sports, with zero commission and deep liquidity.

[MagicMaker @0xMagicMaker]

We've built some cool developer tools for MagicMarkets - would love any early feedback.

DMs are open.

https://t.co/nvAfjv6srb

[MagicMaker @0xMagicMaker]

@SigmaSquared_ This result on its own, doesn't contradict this chart.

[MagicMaker @0xMagicMaker]

@SigmaSquared_ An 80% favourite losing is meant to happen about one time in five.

The miss is that the market diverged so far from the polls.

[MagicMaker @0xMagicMaker]

@1CoastalJournal That ~$6m on Kalshi is contracts traded not taker volume, so the cash that actually went in was a fair bit less, so I'd be surprised if many people were really sizing a Brazil trade off it.

[MagicMaker @0xMagicMaker]

I think it was actually the opposite this time, since the final polls had moved away from Bolsonaro, but the markets were sitting at something like 4 to 1, so they were taking a view well away from the polls - and from what I can see a lot of that was people betting the pollsters would miss the same way they did in the first round. This turned out wrong and is a fair hit on the markets but it's a very different problem to "following the polls".

[MagicMaker @0xMagicMaker]

Refcam undefeated

[MagicMaker @0xMagicMaker]

El Trafico delivers

[Major League Soccer @MLS]

CHAOS IN THE FINAL MINUTE!!! WHAT IS HAPPENING!!

[MagicMaker @0xMagicMaker]

@dylanorrell Notional or taker volume?

[MagicMaker @0xMagicMaker]

@TheStalwart Probabilities are never wrong.

[MagicMaker @0xMagicMaker]

@Baheet_ @Outcomexyz @IamGyomei @Baheet_ Typo in the handle?

[MagicMaker @0xMagicMaker]

@bramsPM @bot Can it do sports?

Tell it to take a look at https://t.co/PDfK7XLp8n

[MagicMaker @0xMagicMaker]

@PredMTrader @dylanpredicts We’ve got him at 60%

[MagicMaker @0xMagicMaker]

@MarcoFoster_ @jamestalarico Whatever you think of the money, it doesn't seem to be moving the odds much, markets still have Talarico at around 60%.

[MagicMaker @0xMagicMaker]

@GuntherEagleman Watching the markets, we've currently got Talarico at 60% and Paxton at 40%.

Holding pretty steady around those levels.

[MagicMaker @0xMagicMaker]

@OwenGregorian If you don't trust polls, trust markets.

We've currently got it at 60% to Talarico.

[MagicMaker @0xMagicMaker]

@theneetguy @DefiLlama @Trueo_ @llamaonthebrink 🙌

[MagicMaker @0xMagicMaker]

88% of the time somebody opens Thumper on Polymarket, they get a better price.

Try it today.

[TEB @tebrabbit]

thumper isnt just nba and epl. it also runs on polymarket ufc, boxing, tennis, cricket and rugby pages

ufc 333 this weekend. open a fight and it shows which venue has the better price, with polymarket's fee added back in

tell me what breaks 🙏
https://t.co/DVpvw0XGzs

[MagicMaker @0xMagicMaker]

@zayddotsol @thejay 👀

[MagicMaker @0xMagicMaker]

@polyguana Very nice

[MagicMaker @0xMagicMaker]

@polyguana @Polymarket @Kalshi @trylimitless @HyperliquidX Route to us and tighten those spreads :)