I always figured I was too dumb to do any real kwanting like building models, running automated systems, all of it. Turns out I was right. I'm too dumb for the clever stuff.
But at the same time you kinda you don't need math phd for lot of the thing.
You can get genuinely solid results by stacking a handful of simple, well-tested strategies that you can just steal from books, research papers as they are classic risk premia plus low-frequency long/short systems in equities/crypto and lett diversification do the heavy lifting.
Each strategy alone is fine at best, nothing special.
What matters is that they're largely uncorrelated, when one's having a rough month, another usually isn't.
Combine handful of those, size them by properly, and the results are actually not bad.
checked my DMs after some time this weekend (mistake), but one questions was about trading book recommendations.
While I believe one of the best ways is just fucking around and finding out, there is lot of bad stuff in this place so here is list of actually good reads to learn about markets and trading.
basics
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives - Hull
Trading and Exchanges: Market Microstructure for Practitioners - Harris
Option volatility and pricing strategies - Natenberg
Expected Returns: An Investor's Guide to Harvesting Market Rewards - Ilmanen
Leveraged Trading - Carver
strategies
Advanced Futures Trading Startegies - Carver
Evidence Based Technical Analysis - Aronson
Quantitative Momentum - Grey & Vogel
Algorithmic trading: Winning Strategies - Chan
options advanced
All books by Euan Sinclair
Trading Volatility - Bennett
Dynamic Hedging - Taleb
risk/intuition/decision making
The Hour Between Dog and Wolf - Coates
The Laws of Trading - Lebron
Thinking in Bets - Duke
Superforecasting - Tetlock
Thinking Fast and Slow - Kahneman (only psychology book id recommend)
Taleb books
kwant/systematic trading (basics):
Quantitative Tarding - Chan
Python for Algorithmic Trasing - Hilpsich
Systematic Trading - Carver
Trading Evolved - Clenow
on top of that having some math/statstics basics is useful
I do think LeaderDrive (688017) is China's standout component leader in the robotics sector.
I've done a lot of research on other robotics picks / $TSLA Optimus suppliers, but LeaderDrive is extremely unique.
Compared to others doing lower margin assembly, or lower value components, with higher design out risk.
Western institutions like Goldman Sachs Research flags LeaderDrive many times:
-> As a company with high technology barriers (eg. harmonic reduction gear).
-> and likely capturing high component value costs like planetary roller screws of each humanoid produced.
In simpler terms with LeaderDrive, you cover:
1. Many different components, with high barrier to entry
2. High BOM of each humanoid made, if you combine them together
3. Mass production capability at low cost.
For each humanoid made.
Please do your research on this topic before making your own decision; but long-term if you believe in humanoid sector growth: I think LeaderDrive (688017) is very compelling.
Risk is mainly coming from other emerging Chinese companies taking over market share of different individual components.
As well as mass-production margins decreasing over time; as seen with $VPG going from $750 (for early stage pre-production) -> $150 for sensors.
But in general, I don't believe companies outside China like Harmonic Drive (6324) can achieve the same costs for mass production, which is why $TSLA Optimus is creating extensive supply chains from China.
So we'll likely see supply chains be bifurcated with cheap mass production $15k-20K humanoids from Chinese supply chains. And higher cost humanoids from Western supply chains.
Again if you look at current P/E ratios and say it's high; a lot of it is misunderstanding comes from not looking at forward growth:
Nothing has been mass produced yet. AGIbot has recently achieved 10k units produced back in March.
But in the next 3-5 years, the TAM of the humanoid/robotics sector forecasted by Elon Musk and others very large, if he's expecting millions of humanoids to be produced a year.
So my expectation is the current $10.65B MC would look very tiny in hindsight of LeaderDrive's market capture of the overall robotics market.
So I don't believe thesis like this should be measured in short term timeframes (or that people should actively trade names like these).
Moreso a long term investment idea about how this company could capture a material part of the overall humanoid market that exponentially grows over the next few years.
i've noticed a growing trend where people are sending me supply of their tokens
people do this for different reasons, but i’m assuming it’s mainly for marketing purposes
and honestly i don’t mind if that gives their token more exposure, as i genuinely want every coin on BonkFun to win!
but this trend has accelerated so fast lately that it’s becoming a nightmare
my wallet is now so clogged with tokens that it's hard to even navigate
and then today someone did something creatively dangerous:
they launched a token called 'Bonk Level Savior' and sent me 98.37% of the supply
the token rocketed to $300m+ market cap within minutes of launch, meaning my wallet was now holding $300m+ of their tokens (albeit on thin liquidity)
i think it’s a genius marketing move ngl... but also scary and dange I'mous at the same time
genius because i can’t just ignore that much sitting in my wallet, and i’m now forced to respond somehow
scary because if this gets encouraged, hundreds or even thousands of tokens might start doing the same and my wallet becomes a warzone
scary because it also goes against everything crypto and decentralization should stand for
marketing gimmick or not, burn your tokens if you want to!
doesn’t matter if it’s Vitalik, @cz_binance, or bonk guy... sending that much to one person is just setting things up for a rug — maybe not even intentionally, but just from the sheer number of things that could go wrong
just to be clear, i would NEVER sell or dump the token... that thought never even crossed my mind once
i wouldn’t sell my morals for any amount of money
and i’m genuinely humbled that people still bought and pumped the token to $400m+ FDV even with 98% sitting in my wallet — that trust means everything and i don’t take it for granted
that said:
1. i need to discourage this practice
2. i need to make sure whatever i do doesn’t cause a negative liquidity suck in the BonkFun eco
3. and i need to do it in a way that minimizes impact to people who gambled on the token expecting some kind of reaction from me
i'm basically stuck between a rock and a hard place here
so after thinking it through, here’s what i decided to do:
1. burn 98.3% of the token: this removes the centralization risk and takes me out of the picture
2. swap the leftover 0.07% into USELESS (the strongest token on BonkFun and the core driver of the recent run) — then burn the USELESS i purchased with it!
this way i benefit zero from the whole thing — nothing at all!
i'm doing it this way so my response causes the least amount of damage possible, and also to make it super clear that i care about the health of the BonkFun eco more than any cabal games
and i think using a small portion of the token to market buy the leading token on the platform makes that message loud and clear
i’ve said it before, i genuinely believe USELESS is a multi-billion dollar token... and this just reinforces that view while hopefully making people think twice before sending me this much supply again
i’m seeing a bunch of strong narratives on BonkFun right now with $100m+ to $1b+ potential. hopefully people pay more attention to them or launch more viral stuff going forward!
i saw some posts earlier today about the “bonk level savior” tweet Pumpfun posted ages ago, and i get how a narrative like that might feel relevant today especially with BonkFun flipping Pumpfun etc
so i really do hope the token does well. they launched on BonkFun after all!
but i also hope not to be part of any cabal games 🙏
and i really hope people stop sending me tokens 😱