$DXY
If this continues to roll here it'll start to look a little similar to late 17
I know there's some bear whisper of weak dollar & risk lower, I have no clue will have to wait and see
how it started, vs how its going
been wild ride in #silver of the last few years, and still to this day am forever thankful for crypto giving real world cycle experience in the hyperbolic time chamber.
every other asset class has cycles that take infinitely more time to play out so you dont learn as quick.
crypto is goated for that.
The last two times the $DXY broke below 96, #Bitcoin ran from $2,000 to $20,000 within 6 months and ran from $10,000 to $64,000 within 9 months
The DXY is currently sitting at 96.3
Now that it's been a few months, this is much more what capitulation feels like. People are done with crypto, those still left want a pump just to exit, and people already looking for other assets to trade. We all feel it, but this is where a lot of stories are made.
Caught a glimpse of the script:
Precious metals re-rate ends with a blow off top, crypto negative correlation kicks in and bounces (after everyone sidelines themselves) alongside a solid big tech earnings (right as the macro bears triple down on index puts).
The end.
Honestly the best thing I ever did for myself as a trader was study the history of markets. Especially today as narrative and emotion rules all, you need to learn how humans will react…cycles are predictable when they are based on human emotion as the stocks might change but the people never do.
My top 5 books to nail this down:
1. Baruch: My Own Story by Bernard Baruch
2. The Alchemy of Finance by George Soros
3. A Man for All Markets by Edward O. Thorp
4. Fortune’s Formula by William Poundstone
5. The Great Game by John Steele Gordon
I’ll be writing an article later in the week detailing some of the lessons from these books, but really it boils down to understanding that humans, when faced with similar circumstances, will act in similar ways. Reading these books will give you so many examples from history that are directly applicable to the situations we seem to be experiencing almost every day in these markets
So when everyone runs away into safety assets like gold, silver, money markets, bonds, and cash you are left with a more volatile stock market with less liquidity. Those left are bullish and more aggressive allowing for a window of delusional upside.