Part 1.5
Felt bad leaving you guys with nothing tonight
So here is the undeniable proof that Kalshi is faking their PERP volume
FYI in case the data was to vanish over night, I have downloaded it and it's encrypted on 3 diff clouds
jus in case u know
Anyhow, here is an example
On ETH the exact same $5500 trade size keeps appearing over and over again
By over and over again, I mean it literally made up 48%–58% of ALL ETH PERP volume on 4 separate days
Also rumor, by rumor I mean person who told me wants to stay anonymous so I can't share proof, is that Kalshi has volume deals so MMs are forced to fuck around and do things like this
Literally incentivized to cheat
What I don't understand is why they are so bad at it kek
pro tip: if you guys want to fake volume one day, don't use the same lot size to do it over and over again
sincerely,
beni
this is the real problem
most people just don't realize the scale of the fertility collapse.
population pyramid inversion in almost all countries and old people massively outnumbering kids is THE cataclysm
you won't see the tsunami coming or the meteor in the sky or people dying in a pandemic, but that doesn't mean it’s less existential
In the US, if the current fertility trajectory continues, for every 100 people today you'll be left with 25 people in a century. that's like having a pandemic that kills 75% of people
worse than your “cataclysmic” bubonic plague.
but it happens slower and for self centered people it’s impossible to grasp.
the tragedy of modern man is that he has been removed from history and for him nothing exists but today and maybe tomorrow, that’s a real catastrophe. “it doesn’t affect me personally so it’s not a problem”
what’s even worse is that the economy might even keep doing great because of AI and robots. the market will boom while humans bring themselves to extinction.
you can have rising GDP per capita and a dying civilization at the same time
things always get better until they don't
Absolutely boggles my mind that 21-year-old investment bank interns are subject to stricter insider trading rules than members of Congress.
These guys have access to more material non-public information than anyone on Wall Street—legislative changes, pharmaceutical trials, classified military intel, defense contracts—and they’re using it to operate their own amateur hedge funds from the House cloakroom.
Pelosi and her serial drunk-driving husband consistently outperforming the market. Ro Khanna making thousands of trades every year. Hundreds of other examples, across both parties. It’s completely absurd.
If you want the extraordinary privilege of being one of the most powerful people in America, you—and all members of your immediate family—should be required to place your liquid assets in a trust that can only invest in the S&P 500, a bond market ETF, and a money market fund. You can change your allocation among the three choices quarterly, but that’s it.
No more call options on biotech companies that just told the FDA about a medical breakthrough. No more short-selling defense contractors that just briefed the Armed Services Committee about production delays. No more fake “blind trusts” whose rules aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on.
Show up, do your job, and faithfully serve the American people. If you don’t want to do that, go study for the CFA exams and test your mettle against Ken Griffin and Steve Cohen in the trading world (for some reason, I don’t expect your streak of beating the market to continue once you and your staffers are no longer getting confidential briefings).
But no more of this Capitol Hill Wolf of Wall Street bullshit. It’s corrosive to good governance, it undermines democracy and trading markets alike, and we, the American people, are done with it.
I fell in love with this quote:
Accept people as they are, but place them where they belong. Always remember you are the ceo of your life.
Acceptance frees you from trying to change anyone. Boundaries protect your peace. Not everyone earns the same access, the same closeness, or the same seat at your table, and that's not cruelty, it's self respect.
This is actually what the future will look like. When wearable AR glasses saturate the market a whole generation will grow up only knowing reality through a mixed virtual/real spatial computing lens. It will be chaotic and stimulating. They will cherish their digital objects.