devcon_10

Trading for 6 years
Learning it the hard way
Money management/risk management is key

[devcon_10 @10Devcon]

Plausible scenario for the coming 5 years...

[Rawl @EtherRawl]

Starting with the most observable part of the chart, which is obviously the next move—as people always want to know what’s going to happen next. This chart is purely about psychology, and we are at a point where market participants are no longer taking political statements at face value. The market has been pricing in a soft landing since 2022.

You can see that every time political figures come out trying to disrupt the normal functioning of the market, it reacts in the short term. However, in the long term, the market maintains its vision of a soft landing. The last part is the most explosive: the market will realize that there is nothing that can stop it from fully pricing in a soft landing. Each market disruption is being instantly absorbed, while political figures simply cannot trigger a recession—not in 2022, not with the tariff wars, not with the new conflicts affecting the oil situation.

The market will effectively say: “Oh, so they can’t trigger a recession—which means more rate cuts, more cheap money to buy stocks, and no more traditional 4-year cycle.” This will build confidence, and sentiment will instantly flip from extreme fear to extreme greed in a short period of time.

Now, let’s talk about timelines. There is the typical 4-year cycle with a low expected around October this year. That timeline is only valid if we get a recession this year. If a recession does occur, it will completely invalidate the scenario I’ve outlined here, as it would trigger another wave of QE and resume a full market cycle.

But if that does not happen, and by the midterms we are trading back up to near all-time highs (or even new ATH), there is more than an 80% chance of entering a blow-off top phase until February–March 2027. All markets would skyrocket, completely ignoring the 4-year cycle low fueling even higher momentum as investors and retail traders realize they are missing the train. Then, overnight, everything would look good—until the long-delayed recession finally hits, bringing a reality check to everyone. By mid to end of 2027, we could be trading back at roughly the same levels we have today.

Shortly after, complacency would set in as we stay flat for 1 to 1.5 years without making a new ATH. This would lead us into the next Shmita year, printing a normal correction—but this time it would be doubled down, taking us back to around COVID levels -70/80% (the initial spark of the entire move we see today).

Now that we’ve covered a good part of what’s going to happen (possibly), I also want to add a few psychological signs, particularly the big IPOs. The biggest IPO ever was Saudi Aramco in December 2019, right before the COVID crash. The second biggest was Alibaba at only about $170 billion. That huge gap between the top one and the rest should tell you something.

Today, we have SpaceX at $1.5T–$1.75T early IPO valuation, followed by OpenAI at around $850B–$1T, and Anthropic at around $380B-$600B. When big companies reach such enormous valuations to raise capital, pullbacks tend to follow (maybe not instantly, but shortly after). Why? Because to deliver even a 2x or 3x return from those levels the entire world will become broke as every single human would need to put a penny into it, just like they did with gold.. That’s why these mega-IPOs tend to come when the cycle has either fully topped out or is in the process of topping out.

The small euphoria generated by these IPOs especially the SpaceX one will hype investors into believing the economy will expand (further than Earth) creating a new paradigm right before the long-awaited recession hits. From there, markets will only make lower lows and lower highs.

As for low-cap stocks and crypto, they will benefit from both the soft-landing blow-off top narrative and the fact that the broader stock market can’t make new ATHs as we approach 2028/2029 because the capital will shift back into speculation. While the SPX makes a lower high, these small assets will blow out even more aggressively, making new highs and catching up with what has been leading for years generating hundreds of billions in market cap for names that are currently under $10 billion.

To end clearly: the invalidation of this plan would be if the 4-year cycle plays out exactly as in the past, meaning we are already in a recession, with the top already in, and we head down into October—after which we would start another full market cycle, very simple.

A few key tools to watch to determine whether we are in a recession or successfully avoid one:

-The bond market (yields above 4.4% signal recession risk, under 4.4% with controlled inflation and further cuts supports a soft landing).

-The DXY (key levels: 100.8 to 102).

-Gold returning to all-time high (recession risk)

-The current conflicts and oil prices (oil falling back into the 60s going into summer would support the soft-landing narrative).

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

Let me explain WHERE we are in the risk curve for equities. This will frame how aggressive you should be right now 🧵

RISK CURVE: The spectrum that traders allocate capital to higher risk vs lower risk names, which indicates how much money is in the system

Notice the chart below, it is all of the equities that have high yield debt vs the S&P500 as they just made an all time high. Why? Because traders understand the liquidity spigot is being turned on right now.

[Aksel Kibar, CMT @TechCharts]

https://t.co/1z1W4cj2D3

[devcon_10 @10Devcon]

👀

[Rawl @EtherRawl]

Starting with the most observable part of the chart, which is obviously the next move—as people always want to know what’s going to happen next. This chart is purely about psychology, and we are at a point where market participants are no longer taking political statements at face value. The market has been pricing in a soft landing since 2022.

You can see that every time political figures come out trying to disrupt the normal functioning of the market, it reacts in the short term. However, in the long term, the market maintains its vision of a soft landing. The last part is the most explosive: the market will realize that there is nothing that can stop it from fully pricing in a soft landing. Each market disruption is being instantly absorbed, while political figures simply cannot trigger a recession—not in 2022, not with the tariff wars, not with the new conflicts affecting the oil situation.

The market will effectively say: “Oh, so they can’t trigger a recession—which means more rate cuts, more cheap money to buy stocks, and no more traditional 4-year cycle.” This will build confidence, and sentiment will instantly flip from extreme fear to extreme greed in a short period of time.

Now, let’s talk about timelines. There is the typical 4-year cycle with a low expected around October this year. That timeline is only valid if we get a recession this year. If a recession does occur, it will completely invalidate the scenario I’ve outlined here, as it would trigger another wave of QE and resume a full market cycle.

But if that does not happen, and by the midterms we are trading back up to near all-time highs (or even new ATH), there is more than an 80% chance of entering a blow-off top phase until February–March 2027. All markets would skyrocket, completely ignoring the 4-year cycle low fueling even higher momentum as investors and retail traders realize they are missing the train. Then, overnight, everything would look good—until the long-delayed recession finally hits, bringing a reality check to everyone. By mid to end of 2027, we could be trading back at roughly the same levels we have today.

Shortly after, complacency would set in as we stay flat for 1 to 1.5 years without making a new ATH. This would lead us into the next Shmita year, printing a normal correction—but this time it would be doubled down, taking us back to around COVID levels -70/80% (the initial spark of the entire move we see today).

Now that we’ve covered a good part of what’s going to happen (possibly), I also want to add a few psychological signs, particularly the big IPOs. The biggest IPO ever was Saudi Aramco in December 2019, right before the COVID crash. The second biggest was Alibaba at only about $170 billion. That huge gap between the top one and the rest should tell you something.

Today, we have SpaceX at $1.5T–$1.75T early IPO valuation, followed by OpenAI at around $850B–$1T, and Anthropic at around $380B-$600B. When big companies reach such enormous valuations to raise capital, pullbacks tend to follow (maybe not instantly, but shortly after). Why? Because to deliver even a 2x or 3x return from those levels the entire world will become broke as every single human would need to put a penny into it, just like they did with gold.. That’s why these mega-IPOs tend to come when the cycle has either fully topped out or is in the process of topping out.

The small euphoria generated by these IPOs especially the SpaceX one will hype investors into believing the economy will expand (further than Earth) creating a new paradigm right before the long-awaited recession hits. From there, markets will only make lower lows and lower highs.

As for low-cap stocks and crypto, they will benefit from both the soft-landing blow-off top narrative and the fact that the broader stock market can’t make new ATHs as we approach 2028/2029 because the capital will shift back into speculation. While the SPX makes a lower high, these small assets will blow out even more aggressively, making new highs and catching up with what has been leading for years generating hundreds of billions in market cap for names that are currently under $10 billion.

To end clearly: the invalidation of this plan would be if the 4-year cycle plays out exactly as in the past, meaning we are already in a recession, with the top already in, and we head down into October—after which we would start another full market cycle, very simple.

A few key tools to watch to determine whether we are in a recession or successfully avoid one:

-The bond market (yields above 4.4% signal recession risk, under 4.4% with controlled inflation and further cuts supports a soft landing).

-The DXY (key levels: 100.8 to 102).

-Gold returning to all-time high (recession risk)

-The current conflicts and oil prices (oil falling back into the 60s going into summer would support the soft-landing narrative).

[devcon_10 @10Devcon]

@Crypto_Chase Levels are pretty accurate, framework for the trades are laid out in advance. You are one of the rare ones who provide real value on this platform. Nice work Chase!

[devcon_10 @10Devcon]

@CryptoWizardd Yes

[devcon_10 @10Devcon]

@Crypto_Chase Correct

[devcon_10 @10Devcon]

@Crypto_Chase Good reasoning

[devcon_10 @10Devcon]

@TraderAryan 3 to 5 years is too optimistic. Make that 10 years, and maybe then some people have figured it out. But 99% will never reach that point anyway.

[devcon_10 @10Devcon]

@Cobratate Gambler

[devcon_10 @10Devcon]

@CryptoCrewU @TheDailyGold

[devcon_10 @10Devcon]

@BrianTycangco $3,400

[devcon_10 @10Devcon]

@cz_binance 🤡

[Jeff Opdyke (jeffo) @DigitalRoamad]

Too few people understand the $CROWN opportunity. A gambling project tied into Churchill Downs and releasing an on-chain tote that anyone can use to create localized wagering for their own competitions… and $CROWN is the center of that?

“Only up” is coming to $CROWN

[devcon_10 @10Devcon]

@LaJollaFarmz Just sold my much heavier bag of silver coins. Keep riding my mining stocks.

[devcon_10 @10Devcon]

@TheCoinCollect8 @BitPaine Are you going to delete your posts also when you are wrong again, like all the other brokie shillers on this platform?

[devcon_10 @10Devcon]

@Anbessa100 Gm

[devcon_10 @10Devcon]

@BrianTycangco I agree.

[🌹 La Jolla Farms Stables - MW @LaJollaFarmz]

Buy $crown when there is horse blood in the streets

[devcon_10 @10Devcon]

@SaroTrades Scam