knifemaker15

[knifemaker15 @15knifemaker15]

@Investanswers Not true bro.. fake..

[knifemaker15 @15knifemaker15]

@fights_fanatic Hell yes

[knifemaker15 @15knifemaker15]

@ewarren Look.. millionaire politicians still pretending to be one of us..
Go to a retirement home and leave us alone.

[knifemaker15 @15knifemaker15]

@elonmusk Grok says different my friend. Very bad intel.. DYOR

[knifemaker15 @15knifemaker15]

@Investanswers @EndWokeness James, you have always been such a reserved guy.. I guess everyone has a limit.. and I'm digging it! 😉

[knifemaker15 @15knifemaker15]

@Investanswers @EricLDaugh Damn James made me laugh so hard..

[knifemaker15 @15knifemaker15]

@FranckenTheo The average person has no view on the connectivity between Iran and global aggression. They don't know about the drones, the hate speech, the weapon deals and the massive use of proxis against the west. Ukraine lives this every day. Ignore the negative messages to this post.

[knifemaker15 @15knifemaker15]

@ElonMusk_LordX Yes

[knifemaker15 @15knifemaker15]

@APompliano I second that! Great book.

[knifemaker15 @15knifemaker15]

@DeFiTracer They are trying to find the new bottom. See where the masses are willing to step in before taking this market to a next level.

[Carl ₿ MENGER ⚡️🇸🇻 @CarlBMenger]

BREAKING: FED just pumped $13.5 BILLION into the U.S. Banking System through overnight repos, the 2nd largest liquidity injection EVER, just behind Covid.

SEND IT BRO! #Bitcoin

[knifemaker15 @15knifemaker15]

@investanswers @AntiCultMemes I laughed so hard... well said James!

[knifemaker15 @15knifemaker15]

@Coins_Kid My exact feelings in a tweet!

[knifemaker15 @15knifemaker15]

@ZssBecker Finally... mtf..

[MartyParty @martypartymusic]

My thesis Summarized. Share.

The narrative: "The heartbeat of this market"

Rapid boom-bust waves inside one giant liquidity tsunami. Let’s break it down in plain English, then zoom in on the 3 oscillations we've seen since Jan 2024 and what the next 6-month pulse probably looks like.

1. What a “cycle” really is (my definition, refined)

Expansion (markup): Fresh fiat pours in → price moons 100-300 % in weeks.
Sources: ETF inflows, Fed liquidity, nation-state buys, corporate treasuries.

Contraction (shake-out):

Early buyers ring the register.
Leveraged longs get wrecked.
Exchanges auto-liquidate.
Shorts pile on.
→ Price retraces ~50 % of the leg up in days.
→ Capital flees back to dollars… temporarily.

Repeat every 4 → 1 → 0.5 years as the pipe gets fatter.

It’s the exact same fractal the Fed runs on fiat, only on steroids because Bitcoin is scarcer and 100× more tradable venues exist.

2. The 3 oscillations since Jan 2024

(Prices = approx BTC spot)
Jan–Mar 2024 - ETF launch wave
$43 k → $73 k (+70 %) → $53 k (-45 %)
Jul–Oct 2024 — Post-halving re-accumulation
$53 k → $108 k (+104 %) → $78 k (-28 %)
Mar–May 2025 — Trump reserve + rate-cut rocket
$78 k → $126 k (+62 %) → $99 k (-21 % so far)

Each contraction shaved ~50 % off the move, not the all-time high, and lasted 3–6 weeks.
A “6-month 2025 cadence”.

3. Why the clock is speeding up?

2023: 1 ETF → $15 B inflow
2025: 47 ETFs + sovereign funds → $25–40 B per quarter
More pipes = faster fill = faster over-heat = faster flush.

4. The $84 B “exchange extraction”

No public audit says exactly $84 B in liquidations, but the math is close:

2024–25 perpetual futures volume ≈ $32 trillion

Average fee + funding drag ≈ 0.06 % per side
Liquidations alone: $1–2 B per big wipe (we saw 3 × $1.8 B events).
Add it up and exchanges do vacuum high eight-figures every leg. They are the new casino that prints the chips then cashes them on the way out.

5. Where we sit right now (5 Nov 2025)

BTC $99 k = 50 % retrace of the $78 k–$126 k leg.
Fear/Greed at 28 (Extreme Fear) - classic buy zone.
ETF flows still +$1.2 B this week.
200-week SMA ($62 k) is 38 % lower - no chance we tag it in a super-cycle.

6. Next 6-month script (Nov 2025 → May 2026)
Nov–Dec: slingshot back to $130–140 k (old high + 30 %).
Jan–Feb: blow-off to $180–220 k on nation-state FOMO.
Mar–May: 4th oscillation → 50 % flush to $110–130 k.

That flush becomes the launch pad for the $300 k+ leg in late 2026.

7. How to ride it (simple rules)

Never leverage the markup - let spot compound.
Sell 20–30 % into local euphoria, buy the 50 % dip.
Keep 50 %+ in cold storage; the house always wins on CEX.

Track two lines: ETF inflow streak (still green).
50-week MA ($84 k) - while price stays above, super-cycle is alive.

Bottom line: You’re not early, you’re on schedule. The super-cycle isn’t four slow years anymore; it’s six ferocious months stitched together by institutional fire-hoses. Stay disciplined on the dips, let the oscillations do the heavy lifting, and the same exchanges that just extracted $84 B will hand you the next markup on a platter.

See you at $200k

[knifemaker15 @15knifemaker15]

@PalaCastle30 @RaoulGMI Man... I am so there with you. You have no idea..

[knifemaker15 @15knifemaker15]

@ZssBecker @MrFlag_1 😂

[knifemaker15 @15knifemaker15]

@humnews_urdu @Coins_Kid Scam!

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

Many think a BTC top will form in ~2 months.

I think it's possible too, but there's one element I can't put my finger on:

Sentiment. Sentiment isn't matching with a top. Where's the euphoria? Sentiment is an important indicator. We're not seeing the sentiment top form yet. This suggests BTC could peak later as it takes more than 2 months for it to go from where it is now to "overheated".

At the same time, I wouldn't want to "miss the top" if every other metric is indicating overheated. However, so far, every other metric is *not* indicating overheated. Will they all scream "overheated" in ~2 months, as well as full-blown euphoric sentiment?

Really, the only metric indicating a top in ~2 months is the metric of "cycle time" (duration in the bitcoin cycle). I am apt to believe the other metrics are more correct than time alone, and none of them are screaming "top" yet.

Really, what we want to check for in ~2 months is:
- Metric overheatedness (such as those in https://t.co/Ufl8m3uQOb)
- Sentiment (are things near euphoric highs?)

If we have those things then: awesome, it's time to take profits (speaking to myself, here). But if we only have "cycle time" as a top indicator, I'm apt to hold off until the other two (metrics and sentiment) are also showing overheated.

"Cycle time" alone isn't enough to convince me of a top.

[knifemaker15 @15knifemaker15]

@nayibbukele Ignore the outside noise.. focus on the task at hand.. the future will be bright.