@Alice_MiaX Context matters. Volatility is the toll you pay for compounding. Against the right macro backdrop, drawdowns from ATH are generally a structural feature of growth, just look at 50% pullback of NVDA in 2022. If FCF remains healthy, the price eventually converges with fundamentals
@fitz_keith In 2006, Milton Friedman praised Greenspan’s policies even though they conflicted with his own philosophy. Too bad Friedman didn’t live a couple more years to witness the unraveling, his response would’ve been epic.
Real cash sets the spread. A 30-year loan at only 65 bps over the long Treasury, and the bond market didn’t blink. That paper is priced for structural change, not quarterly hype or “bubble.”
2013 Apple is a clean parallel. Btw, the internet is littered with articles implying that the debt sale was the end of Apple’s bull run yet it proved to be the beginning!
@freedom_rpt@SantiagoAuFund I stand corrected haha. Glad to hear. Granular mechanics of COMEX derivatives seemed to depart from his macro stance, which is something he gets a lot of. Apologies
@freedom_rpt@SantiagoAuFund He gave u an lol response. It must be incredibly frustrating for him to see the structural foundation of his macroeconomic thesis get completely ignored in the replies. Your comment indicates you a) don’t know his framework and b) are trying to win an argument he isn’t having
@simonateba@elonmusk My struggle is due to the fact that my net tax liability is well over half of my income, not because Elon is innovating. The zero-sum fallacy, unfortunately, never dies.
@SantiagoAuFund@RogueMacro_ I’m old enough to remember 2011 when it hit 72. It’s trading approx 36% higher yet people on here would lead u to believe that a move from 99 to 98.50 is the end of the Dollar. Such a strange time.
@drockyyyy@marcuslemonis@SenBooker I’d argue banking is the worst, followed by healthcare/pharma. But you’re missing the point…the forest for the trees. This is our entire economy. None of it is a true free market, regardless of political party. The market doesn’t create/pick winners & losers, govt does.
@fitz_keith@MarkYusko A log scale is a topographical map. A linear scale is standing at base camp of Mt Everest looking up. If the point is the sheer magnitude of the innovation wall we're facing, linear did its job perfectly. Log scale would make climbing Everest akin to a flight of stairs.
@SantiagoAuFund@Richard_Casey The “USD death” cottage industry conflating standard liquidity backstops with asset freezes just to fit a predetermined doomsday macro narrative is what I call “Sunday.”
@AmericanAlphaX@MarioNawfal I would like to tighten my scenario to adhere to semantics. I will start an unprofitable shoveling business, “file for bankruptcy” and ask govt to purchase while I retain 10% of the cash injection (burn). I wouldn’t dare ask for a bailout, that’s immoral.
@AmericanAlphaX@MarioNawfal Glad u brought up Obama bc this convo reminds me of Solyndra. Private equity knew it couldn’t turn a profit so the govt filled the gap & lost everything. Your position is that govt will “make profitable” yet PE knows how to price distressed assets, govt just burns cash
@AmericanAlphaX@MarioNawfal 😂 Missed the underlying economic point. You described a bailout dressed up. If this turnaround is an easy lay-up, why won't Private Equity touch it? The govt isn't a hedge fund. Taxpayer funding when private capital refuses = a bailout.