21st Century Value Investing

In search of great capital allocators that genuinely care about minority shareholders.

[21st Century Value Investing @21stCentValue]

$GOOGL is now Berkshire Hathaway’s third-largest equity holding, behind $AAPL and $AXP.

$BRK.A $BRK.B

[21st Century Value Investing @21stCentValue]

$INTC At this rate, Lip-Bu Tan will go down as a better CEO than Gordon Moore.

[21st Century Value Investing @21stCentValue]

Everything is getting bid up to the sky except my holdings.

$NBN: 10 P/E
$FRFHF: 8 P/E
$STNE: 5 P/E

[21st Century Value Investing @21stCentValue]

@TCII_Blog There’s some point where the argument “we’ll keep a war chest of cash and be patient until opportunities arise” fails. I was on board when cash was $200B, but $380B is far beyond reasonable. Their three largest investments ever were in the $30B range (BNSF, Apple, PCP).

[21st Century Value Investing @21stCentValue]

@RAMCOCAPITAL It’s so arrogant to hold $380B of cash on the pretext “we can allocate capital better than our shareholders”

[21st Century Value Investing @21stCentValue]

Two years later and the cash pile has nearly doubled to $380B.

I don’t care that’s it’s Berkshire Hathaway, hoarding $380B is bad stewardship and unacceptable.

$BRK.A $BRK.B

[21st Century Value Investing @21stCentValue]

Berkshire is my largest holding but I am struggling to see the wisdom in holding $200B of cash and hoping that some massive acquisition or two comes along… is that clearly better than repurchasing shares with a little bit less price-sensitivity? $BRK

[21st Century Value Investing @21stCentValue]

If you buy $STNE today, you’ll get a $2.53 special dividend on May 4 AND a business that could earn $2.25 of EPS in 2026 and $2.50 in 2027 based on management guidance.

Stock is under $15.

[21st Century Value Investing @21stCentValue]

$STNE reduced share count by 20% between 12/31/23 and 12/31/25

[21st Century Value Investing @21stCentValue]

@ohcapideas I’m also surprised that Ted’s role hasn’t grown

[21st Century Value Investing @21stCentValue]

Fairfax looks really cheap.

$FFH.TO $FRFHF

[21st Century Value Investing @21stCentValue]

@andrewcoye @SteveWps Agreed, at this size I believe shareholders would much better off if they followed a “consistently repurchase at any price” strategy like Apple

[21st Century Value Investing @21stCentValue]

@ValleyFallsRI I don’t know. I think another contributor is that they’ve opened a lot of new locations and year 2 sales at a new location are typically lower than the year 1 “honeymoon” period.

[21st Century Value Investing @21stCentValue]

$CHA

Market cap: $1.9B
Net cash: $1.1B
Enterprise value: $830M
LTM EBIT: $290M
EV/LTM EBIT: ~3

Dirt cheap stock unless earnings continues to collapse (which Mr. Market seems to expect).

[21st Century Value Investing @21stCentValue]

@ValleyFallsRI

[21st Century Value Investing @21stCentValue]

@ValleyFallsRI Terrible for sure, but partially because they’ve refused to participate in the delivery subsidy war. Is it possible that earnings are near a trough? If so, stock is trading at 3x EV / trough EBIT with more than half of today’s market cap in cash as downside protection.

[21st Century Value Investing @21stCentValue]

$MSTR FY25 loss per share was $15, a bit below their EPS “guidance” of $80

[21st Century Value Investing @21stCentValue]

Remember when $MSTR issued FY25 EPS guidance of $80 based on the assumption that Bitcoin would finish the year at $150K?

[21st Century Value Investing @21stCentValue]

Alphabet guided for $175B to $185B of CapEx in 2026 🤯

$GOOGL $GOOG

[21st Century Value Investing @21stCentValue]

One of the best capital allocation moves I’ve seen. $GM repurchased 16% of shares outstanding at $31.60 in December 2023. Stock is now $87.

[21st Century Value Investing @21stCentValue]

$GM now trading around $54. Management repurchased 16% of shares outstanding in one month (December 2023) at $31.60.

[21st Century Value Investing @21stCentValue]

@ArmsGarrett No idea!

[21st Century Value Investing @21stCentValue]

I owned $BH briefly in 2021 but sold out after concluding that agency costs were too high. I was wrong - stock has nearly tripled since!