404NullBrain

Data Scientist & Web3 Builder | Architecting a synthetic social network where AI & humans collide with myth, madness, and memes.

[阿尔法 @alpha101xyz]

大老师@octopusycc 喂饭IBM的期权之后
特朗普刚签署了两项量子加密相关的行政令：
$IBM $IONQ $GFS
-Ushering in the Next Frontier of Quantum Innovation（引领量子创新的下一个前沿，推动美国量子计算领导力）
-Securing the Nation Against Advanced Cryptographic Attacks（保护国家免受先进密码攻击，加速联邦政府向后量子加密的转变）

$IBM 被定位为受益最大的公司。它已经从早期的量子资助中获得了最大份额（约10亿美元），用于其新的 Anderon 工厂，并且在量子硬件和后量子密码技术方面均处于领先地位
$GFS 盘后+4.46%...所以市场是在买“美国量子制造能力 + CHIPS资金 + 国家安全供应链”。这比单纯买 $QUBT 这种概念票更聪明
$IONQ 盘后+3.18%，成交量也大。短线如果量子主题继续发酵，弹性大概率先看 $IONQ，其次才是 $RGTI 和 $QBTS
A股国盾量子能跟风不？

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

If you put your goals in the hands of RPs who can execute those goals well, and if you make it clear to them that they are personally responsible for achieving those goals and doing the tasks, they should produce excellent results.

The same goes for yourself. If your designer/manager-you doesn't have a good reason to be confident that your worker-you is up to a given task, it would be crazy to let yourself do the task without seeking the supervision of believable parties. You know that there are a lot of incompetent people in the world trying to do things they're not good at, so the chances are good that you are one of them. That's just a reality and it's okay for you to accept it and deal with it in a way that produces good outcomes. #principleoftheday

[404NullBrain @404NullBrain]

@alpha101xyz $FOTO $DRAM FTW

[阿尔法 @alpha101xyz]

AI半导体在子板块的资金趋势分化严重
软件股现在连呼吸都是错，我的理解是市场一方面在炒智能体替代SAAS，另一方面似乎也表明不相信LLM的下游软件应用的前景；也就是说大家都知道自己在炒一个最终不会有B端/C端接盘的泡沫；只能说2026年且行且珍惜，once in a life time多赚点...
看涨：光互连/硅光、HBM/存储、二线半导体
持有：数据中心供应链、AI电力、电网冷却、数据中心
看淡：云软件、机器人、核电铀、材料

[Fred Krueger @dotkrueger]

It's never too late to start stacking. In April 2013, despite being mentioned in the whitepaper 3.5 years earlier, Adam Back did not own a single Bitcoin. The price was $100.

Saylor waited another 7 years. In an interview at Bitcoin 2021, he told Max Keiser that he made his first Bitcoin purchase on June 3, 2020. The price was $9,500.

[404NullBrain @404NullBrain]

@alpha101xyz This is insane

[阿尔法 @alpha101xyz]

$SPCX 不是哥们 你这是啥造型啊
3天蒸发9300亿市值 等于跌没了一个 $AMD
你一共才他妈交易了6天啊
不知道的还以为这是PUMP FUN呢

[阿尔法 @alpha101xyz]

Perplexity CEO 说 $MU 美光市值有望在未来6-12个月内超越 $META
我说：没那么慢！
META约1.465万亿刀 ，MU需要再涨14% 那不是一个交易日开盘半小时内就可以完成的么？

[阿尔法 @alpha101xyz]

https://t.co/REIn0W4rHb

[阿尔法 @alpha101xyz]

标普500：EPS拉升 而P/E下降
AI半导体云厂商的资本回报率ROE承压导致P/E下降📉
无论股权融资、债务融资、设备折旧都会导致ROE下滑📉
选股应该集中在半导体设备卖方、而不再是买方
关注Hyperscaler股价作为周期领先指标

高盛：“每个人似乎仍然相信，他们必须持续投入，仅仅是为了保持竞争力；与此同时，token 成本下降和 新云厂商的出现，正在对核心业务形成定价压力。如果 token 价格继续随着计算成本下降而走低， 收益可能会更快流向用户，而不是提供商。讽刺的是，第一个暗示可以放缓支出节奏的超大规模云厂商，可能会看到其股价获得奖励。如果这种情况发生，其他公司会注意到。这就是最终令资本开支周期停滞的反身性……不是需求不足，而是投资者认定下一美元支出的增量回报已不再有吸引力。”

[404NullBrain @404NullBrain]

@alpha101xyz Much more hawkish than most retails have realized

[阿尔法 @alpha101xyz]

美联储迈入了新时代
6周之内不会有明确财政和利率政策的细节指引方向
但不确定性增加 必然有更高的风险溢价

我抱着极大的成见打开美联储新主席Kevin Warsh的记者会, 因为我以为他是靠着家族和裙带关系上位的纨绔子弟，因为他岳父是雅诗兰黛家族继承人、共和党大金主、世界犹太人大会主席、前美国驻奥地利大使，跟川普关系极深; 同时他是弗里德曼的学生，friedman是芝加哥学派代表人物、诺贝尔经济学涨获得者，也就是说Warsh跟美国财长Bessent是同门师兄弟，等于同一股势力同时控制了美国经济命脉的左手（财政）和右手（货币），一小撮人扼住了世界经济的喉咙。

结果...看完有种被圈粉的感觉...后面有机会细说为什么

然后我思考了几个小时。我认为完全不是回归格林斯潘时代；大大超乎了市场预期；里面可以深刻理解的东西太多：从基本经济学理念到未来全球的货币政策走向, 再到央行治理、经济指标采纳、金融市场定价方式。甚至动摇了2008全球金融危机之后伯南克给市场设下的 “Fed Put“信仰 (美联储永远兜底，类似卖一张看跌期权)。信息量很大，尤其推荐大家仔细听一下记者问答环节。

先总结一下本次FOMC表面的东西：
1）通胀目标：warsh反复强调2%的通胀目标雷打不动。必须实现。目前整个委员会对就业并不担心，但6月SEP（美联储各个委员出经济指标预测，美联储网站每个季度公布）对未来核心PCE的预测达到了3.3%，对年底联邦基金利率预测达到了3.8%，都大幅高于上个季度的中位数。
2）利率：点阵图显示一半委员9位投了加息，对年内利率走向的预期有了改变，债市肯定需要重新定价
3）资产定价和Fed沟通：Fed 以后更少喂答案。 市场要自己根据经济数据定价，甚至fed也会参考金融市场价格作为判断依据
4) 央行治理：成立5大工作组，邀请美联储以外各领域最强的专家来制定方案，5大工作组分别是：
-Fed沟通
-资产负债表政策
-数据来源
-生产率与就业，包含AI影响
-通胀框架

[404NullBrain @404NullBrain]

@alpha101xyz @tri_protocol Hawkish fed back in play

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

A dot is just one piece of data from one moment in time; keep that in perspective as you synthesize. Just as you need to sort big from small, and what's happening in the moment from overall patterns, you need to know how much learning you can get out of any one dot without overweighing it. #principleoftheday

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Just some random thoughts, I do think AI is the most disruptive technology in human history.

To the level of agricultural or industrial revolution.

Since Anthropic, OpenAi, XAI, and others are racing to build superintelligence.

The amount of economic impact can't be measured if AI helps find cures for cancer or accelerates discovery for Quantum Computing.

Or if AI end up displacing the workforce, which increases profitability for companies.

The US Gov has every incentive to keep the buildout going too, as the implications from Warfare, Cybersecurity, is also immeasurable if China takes the lead.

So there's likely to be incentives and subsidies to win, even if there's not enough profit derived LLM training/inference.

As for sustainability, when you look upstream, $GOOGL is able to fund it majorly with their own cashflow, same with $AMZN, $MSFT.

More lukewarm on $META. Very iffy about $ORCL.

But I do see some bubbles forming around debt interest like $CRWV.

Maybe circular valuations that's happening with OpenAI backlog agreements or $NVDA / $AMD agreements with Neoclouds to buy their GPUs.

But as seen with $MSFT and having OpenAI be a major part of the backlog, it did correct off the information, so "bubbles" like that do pop despite the overall markets increasing.

Definitely don't see a bubble in upstream semiconductors from $LITE to Sk Hynix though since the amount of profit they get from the buildout would likely be insane to make up for capex decreasing.

OpenAI was actually my biggest fear from contagion, eg. $CRWV, $CBRS and others, but they just raised a lot.

So think it will be fine for another 1 1/2 years of capex, especially if they IPO this year.

I also don't think we'll get massive Fed tightening despite "predictions" since this will trigger a contagion since many of these players rely heavily on debt.

And although the Fed is independent, don't think Trump would have supported someone who is against his administration goals.

As for semiconductor valuations going up every day like $AMD or $MU, there's probably going to be some corrections here and there. Everything going up together is kinda unhealthy.

Can't time the capex peak but just from $AVGO and other projections, it just keeps accelerating exponentially into 2028.

Especially as everyone is starting to sign multi year agreements as well.

OpenAI contagion / hyperscaler capex decreasing / fed tightening was what I'm looking out for, and no blaring signs of any of those yet.

So I think the music will keep playing for this year at the bare minimum.

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

Someone who doesn't have much can be more generous giving a little than a rich person giving a lot. Some people respond to the generosity while others respond to the money. You want the first type with you, and you always want to treat them generously.

When I had nothing, I was as generous as I could be with people who appreciated my generosity more than the higher levels of compensation others could afford to give them. For that reason, they stayed with me. I never forgot that, and I made a point of making them rich when I had the opportunity to do so. And they in turn were generous to me in their own way when I needed their generosity most. We both got something much more valuable than money--and we got the money too.

Remember that the only purpose of money is to get you what you want, so think hard about what you value and put it above money. How much would you sell a good relationship for? There's not enough money in the world to get you to part with a valued relationship. #principleoftheday

[404NullBrain @404NullBrain]

@alpha101xyz @grok @Cursor $spcx Officially a meme stock now

[阿尔法 @alpha101xyz]

SpaceX 收购 Cursor 是什么玩意儿啊
一个只在黄图圈有用户的垃圾模型 @Grok
一个智能体编程时代苟延残喘的IDE @Cursor
一起讲一个太空算力的故事 #meme

[阿尔法 @alpha101xyz]

日本央行加息到1%，这只靴子终于落地了；预期管理做的很好，让市场充分消化了Carry Trade 日元套息交易拆仓，不会造成类似2024年那次暴跌/VIX直穿60的场景了；日经盘中破7000点，日元/美元汇率稳定在160；美股期指目前反应积极，警报解除…
另一只靴子是明天美联储FOMC和利率决议；Fed rate 利率几乎肯定没有变化了（polymarket 99% , polymarket 98.6%), 就看点阵图和Kevin Warsh对年内剩余时间的表态了; 市场情绪乐观，暂时看不到bull trap

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Just as a recap, these were all my core European longs:

1. $SIVE
2. $LPK
3. $SOI
4. $RPI
5. $IQE
6. $ALRIB
7. $XFAB

Sivers: As you know by now, core laser chokepoint over next generation photonics, from 1.6T pluggables to CPO.

Embedded in many hyperscaler suppliers from Jabil to Ayar. Should go brrr 2027 but markets are forward looking, so ramps + qualifications should get priced in now.

LPK Laser - Glass core substrate "monopoly" with LIDE.

"More than 80% of major global players have selected our equipment for process validation, learning and scaling to mass production"

Soitec - Silicon photonics SoI substrate pure monopoly while coming out of legacy drag segments.

Raspberry Pi - Was my fun idea around Raspberry Pis being used for AI hardware deployments.

Previously this thing was mainly educational or hobby boards, but now used for edge/local AI. Just thought revenue increase would be extremely material and it played out well.

IQE - Critical epiwafer player for your Western photonics like Macom, Tower, Lumentum, and others.

Was kinda going under, but thought their latent capacity relative to Landmark was undervalued.

Also given how important it was, I thought that your downstream players + Govs wouldn't let it go under, so it was more of a moonshot idea earlier in the year.

Lot more derisked now, very important.

Riber - Kinda monopoly in the MBE space, exposure to Quantum / quantum dot + silicon photonics.

Found out from OSINT help from a friend latentvalue that Microsoft Quantum was buying their machines, so this was direct hyperscaler validation + kinda de-risked at current MCs.

XFab - SiC foundry backed by EU/US CHIPS Act with power semi upside. (152% Y/Y growth for their sic vertical).

Main growth was their silicon photonics foundry past 2027 that's getting evaled by nvidia. And that they're leading Europe's value chain efforts in photonics, kinda like an early tower semi.

We'll see how this plays out, thought power semi exposure + low P/B would derisk the company until they scale their photbunchonics efforts.

From my own personal thoughts:

Out of the maybe $SOI has already been re-rated the most? But I'm holding anyway.

$LPK and $ALRIB I think are still undervalued despite their monopolies.

$RPI is just kinda seeing how things go at this point, would be hilarious if they ended up like a mini nvidia for low end edge ai.

$IQE probably has a long way to go given new tower long term agreement, alongside macom. And if they convert latent capacity, I still think it has a chance of rerating like landmark.

$XFAB idk if im missing something or are markets missing something. you have nvidia as a direct eval of their silicon photonics foundry, and it's trading below replacement P/B. i think im right though.

$SIVE I see has the highest upside out of all of them given laser company ability to vertically integrate, acquire companies downstream to make their lasers more valuable, etc. Just like coherent/lumentum.

There's like 1-2 more random ones that aren't really material, but just in general.

These are the ones I've liked the most.