40s Prof

Former buy side analyst recently former social sciences professor. Let's see what the future holds.

[The Free Press @TheFP]

Douglas Murray argues that the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran falters on three critical issues.

[Jamie Bonkiewicz @JamieBonkiewicz]

So we all agree the MOU was a fake win rushed out so Trump could celebrate it on his birthday, right?

[Kuppy @hkuppy]

🤭

[Gavin (humanist/acc) @GavMcCracken]

I can't even laugh at this it's so wrong.

No wonder oil is in the $70s, they're telling the world everything is back to normal.

Meanwhile the strait hasn't even had 1/5th normal transits.

[Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall]

Thoughts on the oil price selloff and why the market assuming the "new normal" = "old normal" is likely wrong:

[AllThingsVentured @AllVentured]

Hilarious. The concern about lost Russian oil production that sent oil to $130 in 2022 but never manifested, is manifesting now.... and Oil is at $76.

[JH @CRUDEOIL231]

Here's the satellite print for the main Middle East export hubs as of June 17th.

We’ve got zero loading activity showing up at Kuwait, Jubail, and Kharg Island.

Over at Ras Tanura, the northern berth is the only spot seeing action, with two tankers hooked up and working.

#oott #iran

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

Oof

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

We are currently on pace to hit the lowest US oil liquids stockpile in history by the end of July.

With the exception of propane/propylene and jet fuel (refineries are prioritizing jet fuel), US inventories of crude, gasoline, distillate, residual fuel oil, and every other category will reach operational minimums.

The burden is on the market to prove that this MOU can reverse the storage decline. The fastest, most visible onshore oil inventory draws are here.

[AllThingsVentured @AllVentured]

Good reminder that even if a deal is signed Friday, the path for US inventories is set for the next ~6weeks as loading programs are already arranged for near max exports to continue and any imports from a reopened SoH equally far away.

[AllThingsVentured @AllVentured]

I don't see how US oil producers could think about adding rigs here after the current regime of oil price suppression in total control with upside likely capped by export and/or price controls.

Not to mention shares of small producers being the most undervalued relative to expected cash flows in memory with many trading 2-3x cash flow. Take the cash, buy shares. Definitely don't drill until shares are fairly valued at strip.

$CRGY $SM $APA $PBR

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Only times in history where the Semiconductor Index gained more than 230% in a 14-month span:

1) December 1998 - February 2000
2) April 2025 - Today

That's the entire list.

[🏴‍☠️ @calvinfroedge]

If you take the last 6 weeks of total EIA draws and extrapolate that forward 90 days, we are looking at drawing down another 10% or more of US liquids inventories (~1.5B barrels) and hitting safety / flow minimums on SPR

We are already at the lowest levels in at least 20 years

[Michigan Value Investor @Michigan_Value]

Small cap pharma investors not used to actual businesses. $HROW $ETON - my two big winners in the space -not regular small cap pharma. Those have a drug, hope it works. If it does? 3/4 of value goes to someone else. HROW & ETON? They ARE the someone else, for ophtha and orphan.

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

(WCTW) Gaslighting The Oil Market

The market has somehow convinced everyone that inventory draws can replace the ~11 million b/d of production shut-in. What a success story this has been.

https://t.co/xaR3ElsgU9

[Michigan Value Investor @Michigan_Value]

$HROW Core+trade 1H/2H low/high. only 1 yr where the high < 2x low (1.8x that yr). 2x 2026 low=$58, average is 3.1x=$90, good yr > 4x=$115. Exit trade in tranches. Hold the core. Simple, right?

[Michigan Value Investor @Michigan_Value]

$HROW Verkazia launch today:
1. 20% of US children experience significant seasonal allergies according to CDC
2. ~1/3 include meaningful eye involvement
3. 60% of these don't benefit sufficiently from antihistamines alone
4. There are 70M US children

This is the TAM.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

re: Hormuz “leaking” stuff (i.e. a reported rise in dark transits)

First, a general comment: I can't stand random uncontextualized transit count figures and "oh you probably aren't counting this one"isms. Show me a time series and a list of which transits your counting specifically (to cross check against my list) or gtfo.

- there have always been dark transits
- there has been a notable uptick, as reported by Kpler, beginning late-May
- that dark transit uptick has been offset by far fewer "official" Iranian route passages
- traffic remains massively throttled, headline counts little changed
- also, this is still just functionally a stock draw at this stage so it doesn't change much.

PS: Murmurs of some fresh loadings (which could mean *production*) are much more promising, but we're still talking negligible figures and as with everything else they're being blown out of proportion.