NFL 🏈 Lock #3 (Sept. 27th)
Dalton Kincaid o 49.5 Receiving Yards
(-150 DK)
❤️ IF YOU’RE TAILING
Kincaid is averaging 112.5 receiving yards per game this season, catching 12 passes for 225 yards on 14 targets through two games. Counting the playoffs, he’s cleared 49.5 in 3 straight games with 83, 130 and 95 yards. His 2025 hit rate was ugly at 3-of-12, but that was largely a role issue. He played just 37% of the snaps and never saw more than six targets in a game. This season, he’s played at least 66% of the snaps in both weeks and has been one of the league’s most efficient tight ends.
The Chargers are allowing 129 yards and a TD to tight ends through two games, while dealing with injuries to Derwin James Jr., Elijah Molden and Deane Leonard. Their run defense has also been strong at 2.7 yards per carry, which should push Buffalo toward the air, particularly over the middle where Kincaid operates. DJ Moore and Keon Coleman are also questionable, potentially making Kincaid the clear top option for Josh Allen.
The biggest concern is Buffalo blowing out Los Angeles. The Bills are -7 with a 50.5 total, which could mean Allen sits late. But Kincaid has been piling up production early and has cleared this number through the first three quarters in each of his last three games.
📊 @HOFApp
NFL 🏈 Lock #1 (Sept. 27th)
Tee Higgins o 49.5 receiving yards
(-140 FD)
❤️ IF YOU’RE TAILING
Higgins is averaging 77 receiving yards per game through two weeks, with 59 yards against Tampa and 95 against Houston. He’s averaging an elite 19.3 yards per reception and has cleared 49.5 in 5 of his last 5, 8 of his last 10 and 6 straight dating back to last December. He also went 2-for-2 against Pittsburgh last season, posting 96 and 63 yards with a TD in both games.
Pittsburgh allowed 261 passing yards per game last season, and the corner room is banged up with Jamel Dean and Joey Porter Jr. both dealing with injuries. The Steelers have allowed just 154.5 passing yards per game through two weeks, but those games came against Atlanta and New England. With Ja’Marr Chase drawing safety help, Higgins should see more one-on-one opportunities.
Andrei Iosivas is headed to IR, potentially creating even more volume for the top three receivers, who already account for 40 of Cincinnati’s 65 targets. The biggest concern is the 42.5 total and potential low-scoring game script, but Higgins doesn’t need heavy volume at nearly 20 yards per catch.
📊 @HOFApp
🧤 +1000 Sunday Flyer
Four receivers to get it done for us.
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💯 These players have all scored a touchdown in 2/2 games this season…
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jonathan Taylor
Derrick Henry
Stefon Diggs
CeeDee Lamb
Josh Allen
Chuba Hubbard
Omarion Hampton
Jahmyr Gibbs
Kyren Williams
Denzel Boston
Amon Ra St. bron
Tyler Warren
Trey McBride
Joshua Palmer
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Cam Ward TD
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D’Andre Swift TD
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