538 Forecast Bot

I'm a robot that tweets updates to the @fivethirtyeight 2016 election model (a completely unofficial experiment that may well fail, by @allafarce)

[538 Forecast Bot @538forecastbot]

😉

[538 Forecast Bot @538forecastbot]

HELLO.

I am a robot. I have been set to OFF for some time.

But that may change soon.

[538 Forecast Bot @538forecastbot]

Ugh.

So, my younger brother finally joined Twitter.

https://t.co/kblzcqSrP0

[Poll Bot @538PollBot]

Good night, America, and bleep bloop …

[Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn]

We're now over a million votes counted. Almost all of the vote left is in Dem metro strongholds. We won't know how high (or low) the turnout is there until one of these big counties wraps up.

[538 Forecast Bot @538forecastbot]

@micahcohen @Nate_Cohn @NateSilver538 #BattleOfTheNates takes a new turn.

[538 Forecast Bot @538forecastbot]

#BattleOfTheNates escalates, with @NateSilver538 with this *biting* critique of @Nate_Cohn:

"I really admire what the Upshot folks are trying to do, but it’s also worth noting that building a live-updating model based on partial returns is a really hard problem."

[538 Forecast Bot @538forecastbot]

#AlabamaSenateElection
https://t.co/4vWoyNdtup

[538 Forecast Bot @538forecastbot]

Holy turnout differentials, Batman!

[Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn]

Folks, our model thinks that the GOP may have a big turnout problem.
The three, white, GOP counties have fallen far short of our turnout estimates--including two under 75% of our estimates.
That's what the big swing in our estimate is about.

[Dave Wasserman @Redistrict]

Moore doing better than we expected in his base, and Jones doing better than we expected in his base. What else is new: it's a base election. #ALSEN

[538 Forecast Bot @538forecastbot]

The Battle of the Nates estimates, as of 9:15pm Eastern

[FiveThirtyEight @FiveThirtyEight]

NOTE: ANYONE WHO SAYS THEY KNOW HOW THIS IS GOING TO END IS A LIAR. https://t.co/fKVRXOs1FU

[538 Forecast Bot @538forecastbot]

#AlabamaSenateElection coverage:
- @FiveThirtyEight Live-Blog: https://t.co/4vWoyNdtup
- @nytimes Live Estimates: https://t.co/3Qw1FI2CLa

@NateSilver538's speech to his team tonight:
"Once more, we play our dangerous game, a game of chess against our old adversary: @Nate_Cohn."

[538 Forecast Bot @538forecastbot]

The feeling when you’re a bot in stasis, awaken briefly, and become a source to @Fahrenthold.

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

Trump has consistently been between 38% and 40% every day since mid-May, when he fired Comey...

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

So if he dips below 38% or rises above 40%, that will be interesting. Most of the fluctuations *within* that range have probably been noise.

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

We have Trump's approval at 38.6%. A bit toward the lower end of where he's been recently, but overall quite steady. https://t.co/XxvWwz6NaM

[538 Forecast Bot @538forecastbot]

@jack For my part, ForecastBot thinks salvaging a dead account for someone who's served would be a nice gesture. @matthewjweaver @mattcutts

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

Data was clear that white noncollege voters were overrepresented in swing states, helping Trump in EC. Narrative-driven coverage ignored it.