710Investor

All cannabis investing all the time

[710Investor @710Investor]

@MSOinvest It was an off market price for sure to a friendly holder. But who cares about the value of the 10% stake. Even if they buy it back for $50mm or more It’s 100% worth the first mover advantage to list on NySE. I’m not convinced AU schedule 3 is going to happen super quickly.

[710Investor @710Investor]

@Shrine259 Trulieve just values their AU business at under $200mm. It can’t be consolidated for now. I’ll take the under

[710Investor @710Investor]

@InvestSpecial Tough think to underwrite is sustainability of FCF given that unit economics are under pressure and company operated margins are only 12-13%. Doesn’t mileage much room for a royalty payment. It’s also crazy that G&A is going up $40mm when it’s been $250 ish for 5 years. $wen

[710Investor @710Investor]

@cannaVester They acquired Eaze/Green Dragon so they have a large vertical with 40 stores in FL through that deal. With Hawthorne deal they’d pick up 25% ownership of Fluent. Guessing they will consolidate the rest of Fluent at some point as they’ll need more scale in FL. $vreof

[710Investor @710Investor]

@junglejava1 Not loving their quality of earnings. The “Adjusted Ebitda” keeps getting more “Adjusted” with ongoing recurring expenses. I estimate 25% of their EBITDA is BS and is masking the margin compression they are seeing. $aawh

[710Investor @710Investor]

@mosley_tribes Trulieve isn’t 10x ebitda either…more like 4x

[710Investor @710Investor]

@reasonus4 Didn’t eminence reduce their position in $GTBIF…

[710Investor @710Investor]

@OTCExpert101 They have a nice intl biz (which is fairly small albeit growing nicely) but their US business is subpar and performing worse than the market. Honestly probably the worst operator of the major MSOS. Ask around in the market… and now expensive at 10x ebitda vs peers 3-6x

[710Investor @710Investor]

@BCobblaw @V_arrell Don’t think he was ever well. What a grifter.

[710Investor @710Investor]

@WeedStreet420 $vrnof has a lot more torque than $TSNDF given the valuations. Also $cura short vs $GTBIF and $TCNNF long is a no brainer. $msos pick em right

[710Investor @710Investor]

@WolfOfWeedST What are your commissions per share? Bounce was inevitable once MSOS stopped pounding it.

[710Investor @710Investor]

@Bkov9 @WolfOfWeedST Fair question for @Bkov9 -it’s clear $GTBIF has the best balance sheet and will be a winner. That said EBITDA is flattish 2021-2025 despite almost $900mm in capex and acquisitions/investments. So incremental ROI has been poor. Without growth why are institutional funds gonna care

[710Investor @710Investor]

@sammyj_19 @todd_harrison Stock is so cheap. Efficiency and low cost production in FL is a big moat. Everyone else’s margins there are declining. Look out 3 years. FL will likely be AU and we’ll likely have rescheduling. 8x EBITDA of $600-800mm = $25-30 stock vs $5 today with limited downside. $tcnnf

[710Investor @710Investor]

@Shrek_420_ Although fair to point out that the market expected FL to go AU so earnings and cash flow would have gone up a lot and that’s not in the cards in the short-term. But stocks are very oversold and should rally hard on any rescheduling momentum. $msos

[710Investor @710Investor]

@AlderLaneEggs I thought the press release was worth the wait instead of a knee jerk response the twitterverse wanted. All of the moves look very mature and thought out. Fair to second guess whether they were turning a blind eye but I think this distraction will fade quickly. $msos $glasf

[710Investor @710Investor]

@TheDalesReport @wearejushi Not to rain on the parade but quality of EBItDA is poor. Why do they include most of the asset sale gains and ERC credits in EBITDA? I get to $8.5mm of ebitda vs reported $13.7mm when backing those out. Leverage is still high with $200mm of debt on $35-40mm of EBiTDA. $jushf

[710Investor @710Investor]

@TheDalesReport @wearejushi Not to rain on the parade but quality of EBItDA is poor. Why do they include most of the asset sale gains and ERC credits in EBITDA? I get to $8.5mm of ebitda vs reported $13.7mm when backing those out. Leverage is still high with $200mm of debt on $35-40mm of EBiTDA. $jushf

[710Investor @710Investor]

@junglejava1 Hey @wearejushi can you please report a clean honest EBITDA this quarter? I like the footprint but sneaking other income/ERC credits into your ebitda is sketchy especially when it’s 40% of your ebitda!. $jushf $msos

[710Investor @710Investor]

@sammyj_19 Congrats -
Impressive top line performance in a difficult environment. But gross margins falling 1,000bp wow seems like you have gotten alot more aggressive and GP$ performance is the toughest in several quarters. COGS grew a lot more than sales so can’t tell if this smells right