CD74

"The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you can see." - Winston Churchill

[Daily Crypto Trading @DailyCryptoTrad]

🚨 $BTC Long-Term Update: The Wave B Trap Is Done. Wave C Is Loading 🚨

As promised, here is my long-term update, and nothing has changed. We have accurately predicted every target since 2023. We nailed BTC at $43k, $50k, $60k, $73k, $48k, $82k, $89k, $99k, the $126k blow-off top, back down to $60k, the wave A low at $58k and the wave B relief rally into $87k 🎯. The blow-off top I called for over a year at $118-130k printed at $126.2k on October 6, 2025. I told you that after wave 5 a massive corrective would follow, and that is exactly what has played out, wave by wave.

In June I wrote: "Wave A is dragging us into the demand region, then I expect a wave B relief rally back toward the supply region (the trap that turns everyone bullish again), before the impulsive wave C takes us lower." Thirteen days later wave A bottomed at $57.8k. Wave B then ripped 51% straight into the supply zone and topped at $87.4k on September 21. And yes, it turned everyone bullish again. That was the trap.

I care about my community, not the noise. I do not get paid for these insights, they are my own opinions. Most so-called influencers are not traders, they flip their bias with every candle and sell you a VIP group. The same crowd that was calling for a supercycle at $126k is now calling the bottom at $75k. In this channel we show different scenarios with different probabilities, and we stick to the plan until it is invalidated.

Macro Overview Recap: Same backdrop I have posted since 2022, and now it is playing out in front of us. I have always said: once traditional markets, especially the Nasdaq and S&P 500 tech complex, correct, Bitcoin follows. On November 5 the Nasdaq 100 had its worst day since 2020, down more than 6%, as the midterm result triggered an AI regulation scare and chipmakers crashed (AMD -17%, Micron -14%, Nvidia -8% intraday). BTC dropped from $81k to $75k the same day, tick for tick with tech. Spot BTC ETFs bled roughly $1bn in five sessions.
Rate cuts are not coming to save this market. The Fed held in October with two members voting for a HIKE, inflation is still sticky and yields are elevated. Headline jobs look strong (+165k in October), but under the hood long-term unemployment is now the highest share of the jobless since 2021 and U-6 jumped to 7.9%. That is what late cycle looks like: strong headlines, cracks underneath, and risk assets priced for perfection. This is a liquidity and rates story, not hopium. If you haven't already, check out my macro analysis on the recession, it is essential before diving into the charts.

Recession: https://t.co/bcWsudZOPd

Bitcoin Charts Analysis:

Elliott Wave Theory: My EW count has been spot-on since late 2023, from the wave 5 top into the corrective wave. Wave 5 topped at $126.2k. Wave A took us down 54% to $57.8k. Wave B retraced into the supply zone at $87.4k, a textbook B retracement of A. Now I am counting wave C, the final and usually the most painful leg of the ABC.

The first structural confirmation is already here: this week BTC broke below $75.0k, the September 15 low and the last higher low of the entire B rally. A weekly close below it confirms the B structure is broken and wave C is underway.
From here I expect C to unfold impulsively in five sub-waves (yellow path on my chart). Sub-wave iii is the strongest leg and targets the mid-$40ks, cutting through my $52k target on the way. Then a relief sub-wave iv back toward the $55k area (0.65 Fibonacci at $55.3k), which will fool a lot of people into thinking the bottom is in. Then the final sub-wave v into the $31k zone, the 1.618 Fibonacci at $30.5k, where wave C completes.

Targets stay where they have always been. This is the massive ABC corrective I have mapped since 2023, with Fibonacci targets at $52k and $31k, and a full cycle low in the $25k-$38k band depending on the structure (the 2.0 extension sits at $24.1k). A deeper $17k-$25k flush (2.618 at $16.5k) is only my extreme recession or black swan extension. On my chart wave C completes around mid-2027. This takes time to finish the structure. Don't be surprised by sharp relief rallies along the way, they are corrective, not the reversal.

Invalidation Points: This scenario could be invalidated if:

Markets reset or correct cleanly over the next 1-2 years.

Geopolitical tensions or wars are avoided.
A recession is avoided.

No black swan event occurs.
Structurally: a weekly close back above the $87.4k B top means wave B is extending, not done. Only a reclaim of the $126k cycle top in a clean impulsive five invalidates the corrective count completely. Until then, every bounce is corrective. It is YOUR job to protect your capital.
Weekly Chart: • Structure: five straight weekly lower lows since the $87.4k B top. Downtrend intact. • Volume: the B rally was a squeeze, not real demand. $63k to $79.5k in three days in August, and the final push into $87k came on lower volume than that breakout. Weekly volume is now running well below its 20-week average. Classic corrective rally. • RSI: 49, on track for the first weekly close below 50 since the August breakout. Neutral to bearish. • RSI Stochastic: bearish cross, rolling over after nearly two months pinned in overbought. • MACD: lines still above 0, but the histogram has shrunk five weeks in a row and the lines are closing in on a bearish cross. Momentum is fading from the top, not building.
All weekly indicators are turning over at the same time, right under the supply zone.

Daily Chart: • RSI: 37.8, below 50. Bearish. • RSI Stochastic: below 50. Bearish, trying to curl up but no confirmation. • MACD: bearish momentum below 0, and the November 4 attempt to turn failed immediately. • Volume and price action: bullish divergence. Price made lower lows ($76.3k on October 30, $74.9k today) while the daily RSI made higher lows (34.4 to 37.8), and the selling volume on the new lows is lighter than in the October 29-30 sell-off.

This divergence is the kind that gives a relief bounce, not a trend change. It is sub-wave detail inside wave C.
Liquidity and Liquidation Heatmap Insights: This is the part nobody else shows you, straight from DCT Alpha data. And it has been accurate: on September 25 I flagged a $51M Hyperliquid long at $81k, and on October 8 it got wiped 🎯.
Right now the map is lopsided. Within 10% of price there are roughly $505M in long liquidations below us versus only $148M in shorts above. That is 3.4 to 1. The first wall sits right under price at $71-75k (~$367M), then $67-70k (~$218M), $62-64k (~$189M), $59-60k (~$127M) and a pocket at $50-52k (~$146M, including a single $23M long cluster at $50,950 on Hyperliquid alone). Notice how that $50-52k pocket lines up with my $52k EW target.
The 6-month liquidity heatmap tells the same story. The brightest resting liquidity on the entire chart sits at $66-67k, left untouched when we squeezed from $63k to $79k in August. Unfilled liquidity is a magnet. Where that resting liquidity ($66-67k) and the liquidation clusters ($67-70k) overlap is my first major downside magnet.
Upside is thin: $76k first (~$45M), then $79-82k (~$86M). The heavier short pockets only sit at $87-88k (~$120M, right at the B top) and $91-92k (~$184M). A relief bounce can tag $79-81k, but the real short fuel is above the B top.
The divergence nobody is pricing in: sentiment is in Fear (F&G: 28), yet the crowd is buying the dip with leverage. The Binance long/short account ratio is at 2.92, the most long-skewed reading of 2026. Open interest in coins on Binance and Bybit climbed from ~148k BTC in mid-October to ~167k BTC while price fell, and funding is still positive. The November 5 flush took the ratio down to 1.39, and one day later it was back at 2.92. During the B rally the crowd was short (ratio around 0.9-1.3) and got squeezed up. Now they are long into a falling market. That is not capitulation, that is fuel. Bottoms form when longs give up, not when they double down.

Conclusion: Nothing has changed in my long-term view, and the market keeps following the plan: wave 5 top, wave A, the wave B trap, and now wave C. Along with traditional markets, I expect all risk assets to keep correcting, and the Nasdaq just gave us a preview. My macro view stands: the S&P 500 can drop 30-50% and BTC 70-80% from the top before we find a true bottom and real gains begin. From $126k that puts the cycle low in the $25k-$38k band, exactly where my Fibonacci targets have pointed since 2023.

For the short term, price is sitting right on top of the $71-75k long wall. The daily bullish divergence can give us a relief bounce toward $79-81k first. Use it to manage risk, not to chase. A daily close below $74k starts eating into the wall, and below $71k the next magnet is $66-70k. The heavy liquidity is below, sentiment is fearful but positioning is crowded long, and the structure is a downtrend with relief bounces until proven otherwise. Follow the liquidity, not the emotion. The map is live in DCT Alpha (link in bio) if you want to read these levels yourself.

In summary, the market is full of probabilities, not certainties. Although our targets have been accurate so far, future outcomes are never guaranteed. This analysis is meant to guide your understanding, but always verify and strategize based on your own judgment.

Real question for you: does the $66-67k magnet get filled first, or do the late longs get one more squeeze into the $87k shorts? Drop your level

👇 I read and reply to the sharpest takes.
#bitcoin #recession

[Nebraskangooner @Nebraskangooner]

I set a stop loss so I don't have to watch charts all day.

Then I watch the charts all day to make sure my stop loss doesn't hit.

[Kaspa @kaspaunchained]

Toccata is live! $KAS became ultra programmable today!

[🎯 Master @Moneytaur_]

There's no "hacks" during bullish trend.
It's a "feature" of bear markets, before HTF reversal.
I love this scam game ❤️

[CD74 @74Conrad]

@Moneytaur_ HNY MT! 🎯

[Daily Crypto Trading @DailyCryptoTrad]

🚨 Bitcoin - The Last Push Before The Crash 🚨

Time to do my long term updated $BTC TA!
We have absolutely nailed every major move since 2023, verified by Grok himself! All my record is in public without deleting a thing. Wave 5 is complete and ABC correction is playing out.

126k NAILED ✅ 🎯
We called the top and were YEARS ahead, and now everyone on CT gurus suddenly writes “I told you top was,” meanwhile deleting their post, while we HAVE updated our Elliott Wave or macro every month and everything is on record. If you’re a long time follower of mine you know this!

Anyway, what now? Did we reach the top, the final blow-off top? The probability is quite high even though I don’t run with guarantees. The probability is high but let’s dive into the charts.

If you value my free work, bookmark, repost, like, and comment to keep this channel alive. Free alpha. No guarantees. Pure probabilities.

Read my post “BTC Macro Structure: The 3 Weekly Levels That Decide Bear Market or Not”
https://t.co/L6OscTggrs

Elliott Wave Theory
Structure did what we expected:
• Extended impulsive Wave 1
• Wave 3 tagged into the July ATH
• Corrective Wave 4 unfolded in a clean ABC
• Final sub wave of Wave 5 completed
• Last time I wrote “Now forming an ABC correction on the weekly and daily. Seems like we might’ve found our A wave at 99k, but that’s not confirmed until the weekly close. Typically we’ll move up toward Wave B around 109k, 112k, and 116k.” This got invalidated since we did not bottom out and had a weekly close above 99k. However it seems we found our local bottom at 80k which means this is our Wave A. This means we will move up towards weekly Wave B with a price target of 109k. If we pierce through, 112k is possible. Fib level 1.618 is on 109k.
• On daily we’ve found our Wave C and now moving towards a sub wave 5 which aligns with our weekly EW (Wave B).
• From my June map, 109k had to flip to support, and it did. New ATH printed, followed by a 22% correction.

Targets
• Primary 120–130k (1.618) REACHED 🎯
• New targets (if weekly confirms) 109k, and if pierced through, 112k

Technical Indicators

Weekly
• Volume: volume up while price down is typically bullish. However, comparing April to now, volume down while price up is bearish. Short term we could see upside, but long term we’re nearing a squeeze.
• RSI: below 50, weak for bulls. But at 39 we could retest 50.
• Stoch: oversold, could move to the upside.
• MACD: still above zero, but downside momentum is strong.

Daily
• RSI: below 50 but moving up. If it breaks through, that’s bullish.
• Stoch: bullish cross moving up.
• MACD: crossing below 0 is bearish, showing we’re in a downtrend but could make local highs.
• Volume: volume down while price is up is a bearish signal.

Charting shows some bullish signs with a good probability of hitting EW targets.
Invalidation comes if we break 116k, that would mean the downtrend is broken.

Liquidity and Heatmaps
Our liquidity heatmap shows strong liquidity at both lower and higher ranges, indicating a quick sweep to upper levels before a larger correction.
This aligns with our TA that we’ll likely get a push before the big drop.
You can use our liquidity and liquidation heatmap on my site (link in profile or comments).

Conclusion
If you’re an old G and follower I sound like a broken record, but my conclusion is and will still be the same since 2023, and this is more for the new people reading this.
If you’ve been following my long term TA, it’s still playing out beautifully. Here’s a quote from last time:
“We are getting ready for the last rally and a top in Q4 before year end.
With stagflation and a slowing economy, the jobless data shows clear weakness.
We are still in a great melt up, but it’s only a matter of time.
Markets tend to crash 3–6 months before a recession becomes official.
BTC follows traditional markets. Remember COVID: BTC fell 68% on lockdown fear without a formal recession.

This is still the Wave 5 I mapped out in 2023.
We got the ATH, held key support, and now line up for the last push.
120–130k stays the base case, 135–145k the extension, 170k is the euphoria outlier, only valid if sustained.

After the move completes, remember what I’ve said since day one:
Bitcoin corrects 70–90% in cycles. Not a new paradigm. Not ‘this time is different.’ Protect your capital. No one else will.”

We saw a sharp drop due to a deleveraging event. Many were too bullish and lacked proper risk management.

When markets get over-leveraged and overconfident, they get punished.
We usually see these deleverage events before a small rally, a dead cat bounce.
If everything follows the plan, we could reach targets 109k which aligns with our daily and weekly EW (weekly Wave B target) and could pierce through and touch 112k, tricking retail to believe we’re moving up again before the real drop. So there is high probability we topped out at 126k

Now the important part:
The FED will likely start QE. Typically, not always, assets go up to hedge against inflation and de-dollarization.
But in 2009 when QE started, markets crashed during the recession.
That scenario can happen again, so stay open minded and probabilistic.
Don’t count on guarantees, that’s how people get liquidated.
Manage your risk like a professional.
We’re not here to look smart, we’re here to get paid.

[Daily Crypto Trading @DailyCryptoTrad]

BTC Macro Structure: The 3 Weekly Levels That Decide Bear Market or Not

I see a lot of people talking about a bear market, but let’s look at it objectively instead. The trend is your friend!

On the weekly chart $BTC has not broken the weekly LL. We have only lost the HL.

A bear market can be confirmed in three possible ways, all on a weekly close:

1. Breaking and closing below 74k, followed by a retest of 74k that gets rejected. If 74k flips into resistance, that confirms the bear trend.

2. A strong dead-cat-bounce rally into the 100–103k zone, where the SMA 9/50 intersect. A weekly rejection at 103k would confirm a trend reversal.

3. A deeper rally into the 112k upper trendline, with a weekly rejection there. That also confirms a bear market.

These are the three levels you need to watch on the weekly close.
Retests inside the range are just noise.

If BTC breaks and closes above 112k back inside the macro channel, then we’re still in an uptrend.

If the bear market is confirmed, the main supply zones below are:

- 46k–50k = first major supply zone
- 26k–30k = second zone if the first fails

Weekly timeframe takes time. Stay objective and ignore noise.

[Yonatan Sompolinsky @hashdag]

@binance,

Thanks for including me in the top 100 blockchain people list, appreciate the signal!

I must decline the Dubai invite though. I do not wish to disrespect, but many of the award voters are avid kaspians who rooted for my kaspa status at least as much as for my research. Let them win or count me out.

Crypto has turned from a euphoric cypherpunk project to a house-friendly casino. You may not be the culprit, but as a top player you hold the lion’s share of the responsibility to correct this, and the October crash your USDe oracle glitch helped trigger adds to what needs to be addressed.

There are three classes of crypto, as @mert put it recently: commercial crypto, casino crypto, cypherpunk crypto. <<Binance should hold a privilege policy for the latter.>> A TBTF CEX should know better and play a different game with hardcore crypto projects.

When binance lists a green frog three weeks post its “launch” but skips a fair-launched-Nakamoto-Consensus-100ms-upgrade-ATH-top-20-the-only-nonbitcoin-marathon-mined project, this is not merely binance rationally calculating; it is also binance molding the market in a way that is alas misaligned with the roots of the movement.

You may feel that kaspa’s sovereign money thesis is boring – that bitcoin is already money and that implementing an internet-speed bitcoin is useless - fine. Wrong but fine. But what’s the thesis for the green frog?

Money is a classic chicken-and-egg product. It is a scam up until one moment before tipping point, “most of the value comes from the value that others place in it.” Considering your resources and influence, I think it's safe to say you can serve as both the egg and the chicken and make it worth your while to push sound attempts towards tipping point.

@cz_binance tweeted recently that “strong projects will be listed.” But binance is part of what defines "strong", it bears responsibility for the market’s compass and impulse and definition of strong. It is not a read-only entity.

Binance listing fees are legit, they are just unfit for category cypherpunk. Kaspa devs and early supporters fairly mined less than half what satoshi and hals mined. We don’t have a 20% ZEC-style founders’ reward or protocol-enforced dev fund; this is not a jab at ZEC and the wonderful @Zooko, who was crashing in my car on a late Thursday back in the low ZEC MC days – if somebody deserves to win it is zooko – but assuming binance is not taking a maxi bet, it should revisit its relationship with hardcore crypto.

We are here through bull and bear, ICOs NFTs XYZs; and we are the source of confidence that restores faith and capital inflow post meme-induced or CEX-induced crashes.

Please fix this.

Thanks again,
hashdag

cc @michaelsuttonil

Exhibit A: Binance Innovation Zone
Exhibit B: 10 bps Nakamoto Consensus

[CD74 @74Conrad]

@DailyCryptoTrad 🙏🏻🎯

[Hoodstock @hoodstock_80]

- MARKET STRUCTURE -

- Basics

@Moneytaur_ does not reference market structure often, not because its not important, but because these basics should be learned elsewhere. For this writeup, here’s a brief refresher before moving to some MT-specific concepts.

-------

- Trends

Trends are always relative to the timeframe.
Higher timeframe trends dominate lower ones.

Bullish Trend
Consists of a series of higher highs and higher lows.

Bearish Trend
Consists of a series of lower highs and lower lows.

📝A sideways trend is made up of smaller trends confined to a range.

-------

- Structure

Market structure is the foundation on which all key concepts in MT’s trading style are built. Liquidity, imbalances, and supply and demand are all rooted in structure.

Price action is the process that builds this foundation. PA follows liquidity, and this constant search for liquidity shapes structures.

Imbalances between buyers and sellers create directional moves (FVGs), while balance creates fair value zones (Ranges).

Balance → Imbalance → Balance → Imbalance

“If there’s no significant imbalances, there will be OBs and Supply/Demand fresh levels. If there’s no OBs and Supply/Demand fresh levels, there will be significant imbalances.
If there’s none at all it will ⚡️ into a ‘fresh’ level and build a new trading range.
Few…” https://t.co/UOSYiuqJrm

The higher the timeframe, the more robust the structure and the more reliable the signal. HTF > LTF.

Structure defines supply and demand, premium & discount, and creates liquidity zones. It also defines ranges. When price action moves beyond these range boundaries, there are four main possible outcomes:

• Break out/down: price breaks through the range and keeps moving.
• Rejection: price fails to break the range.
• Break out/down plus retest: price closes relevant candle bodies past the range and continues after retracing back into key liquidity.
• Fake-out: price breaks out/down, and then reverses.

Outcomes 3 and 4 differ clearly.

Fake-outs are usually sharp and aggressive, often leaving large wicks from stop hunts or liquidity grabs.

Retests tend to be slower and more deliberate, usually following higher timeframe candle closes past the prior range boundaries.

“Look for HTF body close above previous most significant swing highs. If not, it’s likely a false breakout. If it does, the highest probability play is waiting for a pullback into key level before continuation into the next HTF liquidity level, and if there’s none to take it will likely go to new ATH.”
https://t.co/0DG6h2dw79

- Internal vs. External Structure

External Structure
• The overall trend visible on a higher timeframe (relative to a lower timeframe).
• A weekly chart is made up of seven daily candles; compared to the daily, the weekly is external structure.

Internal Structure
• The smaller movements within the higher timeframe, seen on lower timeframes.
• Shows smaller trends inside the larger move.

Internal structure can shift short-term without changing the external trend. Always let the external (HTF) structure guide your HTF bias; internal structure offers early clues.

Example: (📈 in comments)
This 2W chart is external structure and clearly in an uptrend.

On this daily chart of the grey box, we are in a downtrend. This is internal structure.

The examples highlight the importance of always seeing structures in relation to each other.
M > W > D > H > M > S

Internal structure shifts can be the early clue that external structure may change. Let the higher timeframes define the macro structure and watch for early signs on lower timeframes.

-------

- Market Phases

The Four Market Phases

Accumulation
• Typically follows a downtrend but can appear anywhere market makers prepare for markup.
• The range lets market makers accumulate while pushing news to fit the narrative.

Buy Program (Bull Market/Markup)
• Follows accumulation or re-accumulation.
• The asset appreciates in value.

Distribution
• Typically follows an uptrend but can appear anywhere market makers prepare for markdown.
• The range lets market makers offload while pushing news to fit the narrative.

Sell Program (Bear Market/Markdown)
• Follows distribution or re-distribution, depending on context.
• The asset depreciates in value.

(📈 in comments)

- The Psychology of the Phases

Accumulation

Emotion: Skepticism, disbelief, apathy
Psychology: Most traders are fearful or disinterested. Market makers are quietly buying.
Behaviour: Retail avoids the market; volume is low; sentiment is bearish or indifferent.
Media manipulation: The most bearish news marks the bottom. “Markets are dead.”

Bull Market (Markup/Buy Program)

Emotion: Optimism, excitement, euphoria
Psychology: Confidence builds as prices rise. Retail starts buying in; FOMO.
Behaviour: Volume increases; media turns positive; public participation grows.
Media manipulation: Coverage increases and sentiment turns bullish in line with price.

🔺Intensifies with trend

Distribution

Emotion: Greed, overconfidence, denial
Psychology: Retail believes the trend will continue; smart money is offloading.
Behaviour: Volatility increases; price chops; bullish sentiment remains high.
Media manipulation: News remains bullish; influencers push FOMO narratives.

Bear Market (Markdown/Sell Program)

Emotion: Anxiety, fear, panic, capitulation, despair
Psychology: Retail sells in panic. Smart money prepares to accumulate again.
Behaviour: Heavy selling; negative news cycle; retail sells at loss.
Media manipulation: After the initial selloff, fear-driven headlines dominate.

🔺Intensifies with trend

🔺Understand that the system runs on predictable human behaviour. Stay hyper-aware of your own emotions and learn to flip them into signals instead of traps.

“When you feel you will make a lot of money by holding, it is close to the top. When you feel you will lose all your money by holding, it is close to the bottom.
Your own fear and greed emotions are two of the most powerful indicators you will ever find.” https://t.co/oHAxhgJtCy

-------

- Market Structure Shifts

Changes in structure are vital for gauging the probabilities of the next move. Understanding these shifts and the patterns that reveal them is essential for becoming consistently profitable.

BOS – Break of Structure
A BOS occurs when price closes relevant candle bodies past a significant high or low. It confirms a change in structure.

CHoCH – Change of Character
A CHoCH happens when price breaks structure in the opposite direction of the current trend. It’s the first signal of a possible trend reversal.

BOMS – Break of Market Structure
A BOMS is a clear break of market structure, usually on higher timeframes and significant levels. It confirms a shift in intent when validated and often shows higher volume and leaves FVGs behind.

- Trend Changes

Using trends, BOS, CHoCH, and BOMS helps identify key structural shifts in the market. Knowing when the market transitions from a buy to a sell program is crucial for being profitable.

“Buy program: Bullish BBs work wonders.
Buy program: Bearish BBs can often fail, unless optimal.
Sell program: Bearish BBs work wonders.
Sell program: Bullish BBs can often fail, unless optimal.” https://t.co/CWKVFBwZSe

Putting all learned concepts together helps us spot potential tops forming. Using the ideas above gives us further confirmation.

(📈 in comments)

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- MT’s 1,2,3 System (Squiggles)

For MT, structural shifts are an essential part of his setups. The system has three parts:
• A valid break of a key level (BOS)
• A retrace into liquidity
• Entry at the refined level to ride the reversal

This approach ensures we get the optimal entry after fuel is taken, letting us ride the trade longer with clearer invalidation and better RR.

“There’s no MTF or HTF candles closing above key PSH, so you don’t long here. For the highest probability long it’s the squiggle on the chart, with MTF (at least) close above key PSH plus pullback (the entry) before bullish continuation.” https://t.co/DwsTmv5NUI

“All “squiggles” mean the strategy is to wait for close above or below HTF key levels as stage 1 of 3, pullback or retracement into key levels if you can find them, and most of the time you can because bots always leave such levels with fuel behind, to come back later and reverse price again as stage 2 of 3 and this is your entry, and then continuation into the direction of the first move, stage 3. This is how these liquidity games work.”
https://t.co/20IM2XZU8d

Breakout trading is popular, but charts like the one below, and the effectiveness of squiggles, show its weakness clearly.

“You can always choose to long the breakout, but this isn’t going for high probability as it’s what all retail traders do, and the game’s designed to stop or liquidate them all, collecting fuel, and then proceed in the direction retail traders expected, which will then make them start revenge trading as they were ‘right but wrong’.”

-------

- Using Liquidity as a Guide

Market makers leave footprints that help us assign probabilities to the next move. Liquidity is key. When key levels are left behind and price action approaches a level without taking the liquidity first, chances are high, it will revisit to grab that fuel before continuing.

“A helpful hint to determine if a breakout will reverse into a key level before trend continuation is to check if there’s a key level left behind in the previous range that price is attempting to break out from. If the key level is present, especially on HTF and you can refine it into lower timeframes, the probability of a pullback into that level before continuation becomes significant, as price tends to gravitate toward such levels. Additionally, if there’s a key level above the swing high that can be taken, it could act as fuel for a drop into the lower level, setting up for a subsequent pump.” https://t.co/dLb32EUytJ

Alternatively, when no such levels exist, the probability is higher that the breakout/down is real and price action will continue in the direction.

“If you cannot find such, the probability for breakout into price discovery, without looking back for a while, is higher.” https://t.co/uxu7gczPIQ

-------

- Confirming a BOS

In general, higher timeframe structures need higher timeframe confirmations. Use timeframes relevant to the trade. For higher timeframe levels MT often looks for closures 12h or higher. Further HTF closures add confluence and reinforce the likelihood the break is real.

Always watch for body closes above or below the swing high or swing low.

(📈 in comments)

Without a confirmed BOS, we risk falling for fake moves. A confirmed BOS marks clearer intent. Wait for the signal, place orders where the fuel sits, and ride the continuation.

🔺Lately, more HTF closes have resulted in reversals. Market makers are aware that retail is looking at daily closes.

“Don’t fall for false moves. Learn to identify confirmed BOS on HTF and you will level up instantly.”

(📈 in comments)

There’s no single timeframe that automatically invalidates every setup. The last five minutes of a HTF candle can close below a level without any real prior price action in that area. Zoom in on lower timeframes and check what’s happening. Look for signs of strength or weakness to support your decision. Stay flexible and weigh all factors.

Things to consider:
• How optimal is the level?
• Where is the level located?
• Is the asset high volume?
• What are majors doing?
• How does price behave around the level?
• Are newly formed LTF structures being respected?
• Is there spoofing?
• What is order flow showing?

MT has posts calling for 12H+ closes to confirm or reject a level; others rely on 2H. This is closer to an art than a rule, an edge that only comes through screen time and real experience.

“Take notes on this PA, because it will change your game. You can go through timeframes up until 2H and you will notice there’s no candle bodies closing below the level where the 2D BB is at. The hint is there. From here I’ll wait for key SH or SL to be taken and find an entry on pullback or retracement. 0 candle bodies closed below 2D BB. Body, not whisker. At least a 2H full body, specifically for SOL as it’s a high TV coin.” https://t.co/NWU3jY4LnM

-------

- Timeframes

Moneytaur has his own definitions of timeframes. You can either adopt his schematics or come up with definitions that are a better fit for you.

“micro TF: 5min and lower
LTF: 15min > 2H
MTF: 2H > 12H
HTF: 12H > M+” https://t.co/ddmUmlaFK9

HTF (12h+)
• Hold the most liquidity and are the most reliable.
• The higher the TF, the clearer the signal of the predominant trend.
• 1W+ are macro timeframes.
• HTF plays = up to 3% of trading account, max 5% if optimal.

MTF (2h–12h)
• First reliable validations of BOS, CHoCH, BOMS.
• Key for refining levels.
• MTF plays = up to 2% of trading account.

LTF (5m–2h)
• Super-refined entries, exits, and stops.
• First possible signs of BOS, CHoCH, BOMS.
• Less reliable as they hold less liquidity.
• LTF plays = up to 1% of trading account.

mTF (<5m)
• Ultra-refined entries, exits, and stops.
• Entries or exits based on micro structure reactions to key levels.

“In micro timeframes, you can better see when a price reversal is likely, since the ⚡️ at key levels is a powerful sign of that. If you spend time in those timeframes when the price is reaching key levels where you expect a reaction, you’ll start to notice a pattern and better understand whether a reversal can actually occur or if the reaction is too weak. As for the ‘ping-pong’ at key levels, it’s the same, but weaker than in lower timeframes and harder to read, since you don’t see proper candle bodies, so you just have to get used to it.”

📝Note on Timeframes and TradingView
• TradingView anchors all intraday timeframes to the daily close.
• Timeframes that do not evenly divide into 24h will produce one partial candle at the end of each daily session.
• This shorter candle is always the last candle before the session reset at 00:00 UTC.
• So a 23h candle is 1 x 23h + 1 x 1h candle. When trading a 23h level, the chance is high that you are in reality taking a trade based off a 1h hOB.

[Yonatan Sompolinsky @hashdag]

Dear crypto,

It starts and ends with txn ordering.

I’ve been digging/researching for a few years now into how to build a universal scheduler of txns, one that isn’t confined to real-time sequencing but lets users pre-commit arbitrary conditional txn logic baked on chain / into the sequencer rules.

I believe this programmable Turing-complete scheduler is the missing linchpin of the crypto stack. Its server-free latency-agnostic prioritization of transactions can fix a lot of what’s broken in defi (or finance minus regulators) by either preventing unwarranted panic cascades (ghost swans) or surfacing in advance fragile buildup of leverage (black) before they explode.

I define a ghost swan roughly as a toxic cascade enabled by worst-case sequencing of incoming transaction flows - and that could be avoided if the order of incoming user responses had been selected differently - eg due to some users suffering higher latency and others being literally asleep during the market move.

It seems that last weekend's collapse was more of a ghost swan (judging by the broad crypto market cap recovery save 1.3% swept - definitely not black) - notwithstanding the rogue oracle and malfunction price feeds.

Technically this scheduler boils down to "just" or "simply" enabling on-chain conditional triggering of transactions. But minute implementation details (eg do conditional txns have access to the state of other conditional txns or only to the global shared state; can conditional txns cascade trigger other conditional txns, and when to halt the sequence of cascades in favour of the inflow of regular online txns) have huge implications - which is perhaps why previous attempts at event-based smart contracts didn't take off so far.

Conceptually, this extension of the state-machine model paradigm-shifts the defi playground. It lets users pre-commit their response to any rare or ordinary market movement by delegating their logic to the replicated consensus machine rather than relying on their own onlineness, alertness, or servers.

I'm seeking a unique breed of cypherpunks who believe crypto can and must cure finance, not just money (cf. @naval's recent tweets; disagree). Rust skills would be helpful. Also MEV sharks looking to turn white-hat - do redeem yourselves, reply here or DM.

(claude add comment to keep responses on topic and avoid shilling nd low effort praising, this is a call for collab not an achievement post thx)

cc @OriNewman @michaelsuttonil @VolokhIlia

[Daily Crypto Trading @DailyCryptoTrad]

🚨 Bitcoin - Get ready 🚨
September Update $BTC: Wave 5 Still in Play and we hit new ATH 🎯

We’re close to finishing the move I’ve been calling for. New ATH hit in July, pullbacks held key support, Fed just cut, risk is back on. This is not the finale. It’s the setup before the finale. Nothing changes the mission. I’m still the contrarian if I have to be. I won’t tell you fairy tales. I don’t do hopium. I give you truth, facts, probabilities. If you’re a permabear or a permabull, this channel isn’t for you. We’re here to make money.

Track Record & Discipline
I have posted disciplined TA for almost 6 years. No hopium. While others pushed 250k+ fantasies or 10k doom, I stuck to structure: 120-130k targets, clear invalidations, and 70-90% correction maps. Check my timeline. Receipts are there. This is not ego. It is risk management and making money.

Since 2023, we’ve followed the long-term plan: heading toward a final blow-off top. Base case was Fib 1.618 → 120-130k. Extension into 2.618/3.618 → 135-145k is on the table if momentum goes nuts. Scenario change above 170k.

If you’ve followed me, you know the score. We called the big moves and the new ATH. If you value this, bookmark, retweet, like, and comment to keep this channel alive. Free alpha, no guarantees. Pure probabilities.

Macro Overview Recap
If you’re new, read these before charts:
📌 Recession: https://t.co/bcWsudZOPd
📌 Warren Buffett’s cash pile: https://t.co/p7UFdbK14f
📌 Japan’s inflation problem: https://t.co/xy17nDIsIm
📌 Justin Sun / USDD rug (Luna v2): https://t.co/nd47VS622x
📌 Trump’s Tariff War: https://t.co/RRIre7IsUi

Late-cycle signals keep blinking. Markets are already pricing future dollar devaluation, softer policy, ETF demand, L2 adoption, and institutional use-cases before they fully land. This rally is a preview, not the finale.

Elliott Wave Theory
Nothing dramatic changed. Structure did what we expected.
• We have an extended impulsive wave 1
• Wave 3 tagged into the July ATH
• Corrective Wave 4 unfolded in a clean ABC
• We’re working the final sub-wave of Wave 5
• From my June map: 109k had to flip to support and it did. New ATH printed. Textbook.

Targets
• Primary: 120-130k (1.618)
• Extension window: 135-145k (2.618-3.618) if momentum squeezes
• Euphoria outlier: 170k. If we sustain above it, my blow-off framing changes. That’s not bear. It’s a new regime.

Important: If we had failed to take out the prior ATH, that would’ve been a truncated Wave 5. We didn’t. We cleared it. Structure holds.

Risk and Invalidation
I don’t play guru games. I manage risk.
• Bull trigger: Daily close > 118.5-120k → unlocks 129-135k
• Extension: Momentum + flows → push 135-145k
• Tactical risk-off: Daily close < 115k → expect 111-112k test
• Structural line in the sand: Weekly close < 109k → larger retrace scenario opens
• Scenario change: Sustained trade > 170k = euphoria regime. I’ll update the map if we get there.

Technical Indicators
Weekly
• Volume: No capitulation signature. Blow-off risk still alive if we expand on breakouts
• RSI: Bull zone. 50 must hold on pullbacks; a clean push through 70 confirms strength
• Stoch: Cooling and resetting, fine for a last leg
• MACD: Above zero. Momentum cooled, not dead

Daily
• RSI: Riding the midline. I want a thrust > 60 with price > 120k to press longs
• Stoch: Did its job on the reset; fresh cross + reclaim of 120k = go signal. It is overbought and needs to cool
• MACD: Crossing above 0 with a bullish cross holding momentum
• Volume: I’ll respect any 120k breakout only with volume. No expansion = no chase

Liquidity, Heatmaps
Our liquidity and liquidation maps show good liquidity at the lower range, indicating many still believe BTC will go to 250k, and thin liquidity around the ATH zone near 120k. This aligns with our TA that we get one last push before a big drop. You can use our liquidity and liquidation heatmap on my site. Check my profile for the link or see the comments.

ETH vs BTC
$ETH is still undervalued vs BTC on a cycle lens. Typical sequence: BTC leads the terminal push, then rotation.

• ETH triggers: Reclaim 4.75k → test 4.95-5.1k
• Lose 4.35k daily → trim and wait lower

ETH outperforms later because cycle structure says so, not because X wants it.
Scenarios and Probabilities
• Base Case 55-60%
Daily close above 118.5-120k, grind into 129-135k, distribution begins
• Extension 25-30%

Breakout energy + flows → 135-145k blow-off, fast giveback after
• Fade 10-15%
Rejection at 118.5-120k, drift to 115k → 111-112k. Weekly < 109k shifts to deeper retrace
Checklist
• Don’t chase mid-range
• Add after confirmation above 120k, not before
• Scale out into 129-135k, and again into 135-145k if printed
• Tighten stops on verticals. Vertical = sell. Always
• If euphoria slaps 170k, that’s a scenario change. Don’t marry a top

Conclusion
We are getting ready for the last rally and a top in Q4 before year end. With stagflation and a slowing economy, the jobless data shows clear weakness. We are still in a great melt-up, but it’s a matter of time. Markets tend to crash 3-6 months BEFORE a recession becomes “official.” BTC does follow traditional markets. Remember COVID: BTC fell 68% on lockdown fear without a formal recession yet and this was WITHOTUT a reel recession just a lockdown-panic. This is still the Wave 5 I mapped out in 2023. We got the ATH, we held key support, and we’re lining up the last push. 120-130k stays the base case, 135-145k is the extension, 170k is an euphoria outlier and a map update if sustained. After the move completes, remember what I’ve said since day one: Bitcoin corrects 70-90% in cycles. Not a new paradigm. Not this time is different. Protect your capital. No one else will.

If you’re new here, reread this post and the macro links. Then manage your risk like a professional. We’re not here to look smart, we’re here to get paid.

Track Record & Discipline
I've shown restraint, discipline, and consistency for almost 6 years with my TA. While others have been calling for $250k+ targets and "Bitcoin to the moon" narratives, I stuck to mathematical Fibonacci levels and proper risk management.

Check my X timeline - I've got the receipts. Month after month of progress updates, calling the big moves while others were either permabullish or permabearish. When everyone was screaming for parabolic moves to $300k, I maintained my 120-130k targets. When bears called for immediate collapse to $10k, I held structure.

The difference? Most analysts chase price action and tell you what you want to hear. I give you probabilities based on structure, not hopium. Many called for higher targets without proper pullback levels - I mapped out the 70-90% correction scenarios from day one.
This isn't about being right for ego. It's about protecting capital and making money. The market rewards patience and punishes FOMO. While retail was buying every "Bitcoin to $1M" narrative, we've been methodically following the wave structure.

6 years of consistency beats 3 months of lucky calls. Anyone can get one trade right. Sustained accuracy over multiple cycles? That's where amateurs get separated from professionals.

My track record speaks for itself. No guarantees, no crystal ball - just disciplined analysis and risk management. That's how you survive and thrive in this game.

#bitcoin #recession #elliottwave

[CD74 @74Conrad]

@DailyCryptoTrad 🙏🏻

[CD74 @74Conrad]

@DailyCryptoTrad ty🙏

[CD74 @74Conrad]

@queencryptooo 🤘🏻

[Daily Crypto Trading @DailyCryptoTrad]

My long-term $BTC plan has played out almost perfectly. Should I post an update? If enough of you are interested then show some love - 300 likes, comments, reposts and bookmarks I’ll drop it.

[Ross 𐤊 @crono_walker]

#Kaspa GHOSTDAG Protocol Visualizer

Visualize efficient ordering !

We'll connect to the API later.

[CD74 @74Conrad]

@DailyCryptoTrad 🙏🔥🎯

[CD74 @74Conrad]

@DailyCryptoTrad HBD DCT!

[CD74 @74Conrad]

@DailyCryptoTrad 🙏