@BigJoeBastardi How viable is The JMA.. And on the other hand The Euro and GEFS failed February Criminally, so anything 10 days out is throwing Darts with your elbows.
@AMSweather 1:am Saturday observe all the Models lining up. NAM is so deep down into Caribbean. I anticipate a major shift with higher totals as this amplifys further South.
@nynjpaweather Steve I just overlayed all 12z runs including 00z Euro. The 500 mb Trof is all lining up at hour 42. It depicts the GFS very sharp deep. Nam is just like it. For 1 am Saturday . After that hour the GFS loses the trof structure. It is slowly constructing West push
@MikeMasco Hi Mike.. The GF$ seems to show/flash it's cards days before a Big East Coast storm. Then it always loses it enters Betty Ford and then Rehabs comes back to its original Mindset and shows all the cards. But this is the 1st test of coastal Winter storm since the upgrade. 12z ???
@BradyBGWX Ratio induced totals will be enhanced yes but, lesser amounts equate to lesser totals. Higher 10:1 snowfall would beget higher ratio snowfall. Regardless. Just my observation. Not disrespecting.
@BradyBGWX I understand that it will be higher ratio component, the model does not include the higher ratio within it's Op run. With that said the higher amounts that were depicted on 18z 12z 6z were noticeably propagating from land to off shore on latest 00z run.
@BradyBGWX I noticed a snow amount shrinkage in Jersey and a narrowing on western edge. The snow band has the look of a FROPA. Heaviest sits offshore now of Jersey. Create a trend map. Never mind I'll send one to you.
@Eweather13 RGeM also west. All with high amounts not including ratio enhanced factor. Euro western 3dge is shrinking and took a more narrow FROPA look.