Ricardo Nieto

[Rob Pizzola @robpizzola]

Feels like any minute now for another Mexico goal.

[Rob Pizzola @robpizzola]

I guess if you blast it as hard as you can into the wall the other players might disintegrate? Bold strategy.

[Damien Peters @DamienPetersNBA]

Mike Brown made perhaps the most important coaching decision of his career last night.

[Lord BLT 🥪 @MrBradThomas]

LET'S GOOO!!

As a soccer prop bettor i legit cant wait to use this. Sick new feature. Especially with the unnamed website killing the data we had

[Myguyknowsaguy @myguyknowsaguy]

You don’t know ball. Hawks had one of the best records after the trade deadline & the Cavs were built to win & actually had a solid rotation. Cavs would’ve won at least 2 games against this Spurs team.

Spurs played injured OKC, injured Timberwolves & the inexperienced Blazers.

[Rob Pizzola @robpizzola]

We have officially reached the point where I check the World Cup calendar before committing to anything. Wife wants to do something that day, let me check. Friends want to make plans, sorry, two games going at the same time. The World Cup owns my life now.

[Rob Pizzola @robpizzola]

I remember this like it was yesterday. I had already read the books so I knew it was coming but will never forget my wife's reaction. She sat in silence for a solid 10 minutes after this episode finished. One of the best episodes of TV ever made.

[Kalshi Sports @KalshiSports]

Kalshi x Jose Alvarado Finals Ticket Giveaway 🚨

WIN TICKETS TO GAMES 3 & 4 AT MSG!

To enter:
1. Like + Retweet this post
2. Follow @KalshiSports

Winners announced June 5th. Good Luck!

[John Laghezza MLB / NFL Moving Averages @JohnLaghezza]

Donkeys down bad whenever Skenes gives up a run

[BetUS TV @BetUSTV]

Thunder vs Spurs Game 3 tonight + Cavs vs Knicks tomorrow 👀🏀
@seantgreen @_Noops @punt_school 🎯 https://t.co/R7p8YuxbeC

[Corbie @CorbieBO]

Every morning I share a picks thread

Thousands of tracked results. A decade of proof. Built @GetBettorOdds helping thousands profit in sports

This isn't some random picks account.
I *actually* do this

All data using tools I built myself
~9am CT. Lock tf in

[Josh C @punt_school]

- The fully healthy Magic are genuinely better than people want to admit

- The Hornets miracle win against a horrendous Miami team was very overlooked

- The Pistons would’ve/will destroy either of these teams

[Josh C @punt_school]

Hornets v Heat
- Over 229.0 ✅✅

Follow along for your chance to get shitty numbers & luckbox winners these NBA Playoffs!

(This game is insanely dumb & I love it)

[Ricardo Nieto @92icos]

No d d XXX can c es get tttnttttt te mtttnttttttt y but

[Rob Pizzola @robpizzola]

I get asked all the time how to build a betting model. Most people don't know where to start. So I dug up my first NHL model from 2017 and walked through the entire spreadsheet on camera. It's outdated but hopefully it gives people a starting point.

[Toad Sports @ToadSports]

Quick breakdown on how to read these:

These aren't picks. They're projected probabilities with value at current market odds. What does that mean? Every sportsbook prices their home run odds with an implied probability baked in. If a book has a guy at +250, they're implying he has roughly a 28.6% chance of going yard. The Toad Sports model runs its own projection independently. When our projected probability is HIGHER than the book's implied probability - that's a positive expected value edge. That's what this list is.

For example: Ohtani is actually our highest projected home run probability today at 31.6%. But his odds are +186, which implies a 34.97% chance. The book is pricing him MORE likely to homer than our model projects. That's a negative projected edge. No value there at that price. That's why he's not on this list despite being the highest raw projection.

Now - Nick Kurtz at 28.7%. That does NOT mean he's hitting a home run tonight. In fact, his probability to NOT hit a home run is higher than his probability to hit a home run. It just means if you ran tonight's game 100 times with the same conditions - same pitcher, same park, same lineup slot, same weather, same everything - he'd be expected to hit a home run in roughly 29 of those 100 games. The other 71 times? No homer. That's how probability works.

The value isn't in going 10/10 on a single night. It's in consistently finding edges where your projected probability exceeds the implied odds, and letting that edge compound over volume. Not chasing results on a single slate - finding repeatable edges and trusting the math over a large enough sample.

Just wanted to throw this out there since this post got a lot of traction today. Hope everyone has an amazing MLB season and turn post notifications on so you never miss a tweet!

[Senses Fail @SensesFail]

So excited to get back out there!

[Rob Pizzola @robpizzola]

New York is such a divisive city, but I think I’ve figured out why I enjoy it so much.

Every time I’m here I see a dozen things in a single day that I would never see anywhere else.

This morning alone: a cyclist not paying attention ran into the back of a cop car, a guy yelling into three phones at once, steam pouring out of chimney stacks (?) in the streets, and someone casually moving a couch down the sidewalk at 830am.

The city just has chaos to it and I really love that.

[Corbie @CorbieBO]

Easiest Path to the trophy 🏀

Let the Madness... begin
(per BT)

[You Better You Bet @YouBetterYouBet]

"North Carolina is going to be one of the trendiest 5-12 upsets if they end up on the 5 seed line."

@RobDauster tells @TheKostos why North Carolina might be poised for an early exit in the tournament.