99Chambers

Forecasts for every 2026 race: Senate, House, governors and all 6,132 state legislative seats. 40,000 simulations, updated nightly. 🗳️

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

Every region of Texas moved left on Tuesday. The border moved most.

South Texas and border districts:
2020: Biden +9.5
2024: Trump +6.7
2026: Democrats +23.1

A 30-point swing in two years, in the region Republicans redrew the congressional map around 🧵

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

@KenRoth The debate so far, in votes: Sanders is one of 5 incoming senators backing Van Hollen. Schumer has 17, and 10 more want a change without naming anyone. The caucus decides with 29 of 56. https://t.co/XenXSY5t2Q

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

Update, Nov 14: Jack Reed now leans Schumer ("Chuck has done a great job"), putting him at 17 of the 29 he needs.

Van Hollen holds at 5. Wyden says his vote goes to whoever best advances Medicare for All and a billionaire tax.

24 still undecided or silent. Vote is Dec 1.

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

@JordanUhl Before you dial, check where yours stands. 34 of 56 incoming Democrats haven't backed either Schumer or Van Hollen yet. Every senator's latest statement, with its source: https://t.co/XR97BqRb3E

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

@DumpTrump_45 The same Hill story has his allies predicting 40+ votes. Publicly he's at 17, with 34 incoming Democrats yet to back either side. The gap between those two numbers is the whole race. https://t.co/XenXSY5t2Q

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

Update, Nov 14: Jack Reed now leans Schumer ("Chuck has done a great job"), putting him at 17 of the 29 he needs.

Van Hollen holds at 5. Wyden says his vote goes to whoever best advances Medicare for All and a billionaire tax.

24 still undecided or silent. Vote is Dec 1.

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

@joshforprogress Fetterman is already a Schumer vote, so it doesn't change the math much. Van Hollen needs 24 more, and has to find them among the 34 incoming Democrats who haven't backed either side. Here they are by state:

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

@foxnewspolitics Both senators quoted here are still undecided on the leader vote itself. Markey and Kim are among the 15 incoming Democrats who say they haven't decided, so this filibuster split is part of the race. Schumer 17, Van Hollen 5. https://t.co/XenXSY5t2Q

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

Update, Nov 14: Jack Reed now leans Schumer ("Chuck has done a great job"), putting him at 17 of the 29 he needs.

Van Hollen holds at 5. Wyden says his vote goes to whoever best advances Medicare for All and a billionaire tax.

24 still undecided or silent. Vote is Dec 1.

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

@RNCResearch She's one of 15 incoming Democrats who've said they're undecided or won't say. Delaware is all open: Coons says he welcomes hearing from anyone who might run. Schumer has 17, Van Hollen 5. https://t.co/XenXSY5t2Q

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

Update, Nov 14: Jack Reed now leans Schumer ("Chuck has done a great job"), putting him at 17 of the 29 he needs.

Van Hollen holds at 5. Wyden says his vote goes to whoever best advances Medicare for All and a billionaire tax.

24 still undecided or silent. Vote is Dec 1.

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

@ChaseForLiberty @ossoff @SenatorWarnock Where they stand so far: Warnock told MS NOW "The American people want change" but hasn't named anyone. Ossoff, asked Nov 5, said "I do not have an answer." Neither has endorsed either candidate. Sources for both: https://t.co/XR97BqRb3E

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

@kenklippenstein His allies are weighing moving the vote up from Dec 1 into November, per The Hill. Publicly, 17 of 56 incoming Democrats are with Schumer or leaning his way, 5 back Van Hollen, and 34 haven't picked either. https://t.co/BwNI2quJfT

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

@KalshiPolitics The leader math if he did: Fetterman is one of Schumer's 17 ("I'm going to vote for Schumer"). Without him the caucus drops to 55, so the bar falls from 29 to 28 and Schumer falls to 16. https://t.co/XenXSY5t2Q

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

Update, Nov 14: Jack Reed now leans Schumer ("Chuck has done a great job"), putting him at 17 of the 29 he needs.

Van Hollen holds at 5. Wyden says his vote goes to whoever best advances Medicare for All and a billionaire tax.

24 still undecided or silent. Vote is Dec 1.

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

@RollingStone On the record it's 5 incoming senators: Van Hollen himself, Sanders, Merkley and senators-elect El-Sayed and Flanagan. Schumer is at 17 and needs 29. Every senator by state:

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

@RBReich Outside endorsements keep coming. Inside the caucus, Van Hollen has 5 incoming senators on record, counting himself, to Schumer's 17. Ten more want a change but haven't named him, and 24 are undecided or silent. https://t.co/XenXSY5t2Q

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

Update, Nov 14: Jack Reed now leans Schumer ("Chuck has done a great job"), putting him at 17 of the 29 he needs.

Van Hollen holds at 5. Wyden says his vote goes to whoever best advances Medicare for All and a billionaire tax.

24 still undecided or silent. Vote is Dec 1.

[Politics Watch @politics_watch1]

Chuck Schumer allies are discussing moving up the Senate Democratic leadership vote, now set for the first week of December

Link: https://t.co/FWmJEHDB0i

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

@rowanfornow Not sure if this is what you ment but I made a version of it based on hour tweet
https://t.co/jG4DD6mneU

If we do it by race, republicans almost always wins since they win the white electorate. Other divisions are much more interesting

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

@Gentleman2741 Bernie's, and so far 3 others': Merkley plus senators-elect El-Sayed and Flanagan. That's 5 with Van Hollen himself, against 17 for Schumer. 29 of 56 wins on Dec 1. https://t.co/XenXSY5t2Q

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

Update, Nov 14: Jack Reed now leans Schumer ("Chuck has done a great job"), putting him at 17 of the 29 he needs.

Van Hollen holds at 5. Wyden says his vote goes to whoever best advances Medicare for All and a billionaire tax.

24 still undecided or silent. Vote is Dec 1.

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

@sthepoliticguy Close to ours. Since then Jack Reed has moved to lean Schumer, making 17. We also count 5 more who say they're open to a new leader: Coons, Warnock, Colom, Pappas and Welch. Every placement with its source: https://t.co/XR97BqRb3E

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

@nathanTbernard We'll move him the moment he says it. For now Jackson sits with the 10 who want a change but haven't picked anyone. An endorsement would make him Van Hollen's 6th, and split Maine with Angus King, who backs Schumer. https://t.co/XenXSY5t2Q

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

Update, Nov 14: Jack Reed now leans Schumer ("Chuck has done a great job"), putting him at 17 of the 29 he needs.

Van Hollen holds at 5. Wyden says his vote goes to whoever best advances Medicare for All and a billionaire tax.

24 still undecided or silent. Vote is Dec 1.

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

@Stornoway_Cove The senators haven't caught up yet. Van Hollen has 5 incoming Democrats publicly behind him, counting himself, to Schumer's 17. He needs 29 by Dec 1, and 24 of the 56 are still undecided or silent. https://t.co/XenXSY5t2Q

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

Update, Nov 14: Jack Reed now leans Schumer ("Chuck has done a great job"), putting him at 17 of the 29 he needs.

Van Hollen holds at 5. Wyden says his vote goes to whoever best advances Medicare for All and a billionaire tax.

24 still undecided or silent. Vote is Dec 1.

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

@ProgressivesCat She's one of 5 incoming senators who've come out against Schumer without naming Van Hollen, along with Slotkin, Stratton, Jackson and Hamilton. If all 5 made the jump, Van Hollen would go from 5 to 10. https://t.co/XenXSY5t2Q

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

Update, Nov 14: Jack Reed now leans Schumer ("Chuck has done a great job"), putting him at 17 of the 29 he needs.

Van Hollen holds at 5. Wyden says his vote goes to whoever best advances Medicare for All and a billionaire tax.

24 still undecided or silent. Vote is Dec 1.

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

@josecanyousee If he does, it isn't public yet. Schatz is one of 17 incoming Democrats with Schumer or leaning his way, 12 short of 29. Another 24 are undecided or haven't said anything. Every name by state:

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

@MarioNawfal That 10 includes Slotkin, Stratton, Jackson, Hamilton and Andrews, who oppose Schumer but haven't named Van Hollen. Five have actually endorsed him, counting himself. As of this morning: Schumer 17 with Jack Reed now leaning his way. https://t.co/XenXSY5t2Q

[99Chambers @99chambersapp]

Update, Nov 14: Jack Reed now leans Schumer ("Chuck has done a great job"), putting him at 17 of the 29 he needs.

Van Hollen holds at 5. Wyden says his vote goes to whoever best advances Medicare for All and a billionaire tax.

24 still undecided or silent. Vote is Dec 1.