Ali Batu Karaali

Only dead fish follow the stream

[Türkiye Voleybol Federasyonu @TVForgtr]

ŞAMPİYONUZ ŞAMPİYONUZ ŞAMPİYONUZ! 🏆🇹🇷

Filenin Sultanları FIVB Voleybol Milletler Ligi final maçında Brezilya’yı 3-1yenerek Voleybol Milletler Ligi’nde yeniden şampiyonuz! 🏆❤️

[Ali Batu Karaali @ABATUKARAALI]

Mourinho diye gel İsmail Kartal ile son bul.

[Fenerbahçe SK @Fenerbahce]

Kalbinizin attığı yerdesiniz. 💛💙

🔗 https://t.co/kvnSBqcLoX

#Şampiyonlukİçin

[Ali Batu Karaali @ABATUKARAALI]

about #Schrodinger’s cat

[Leanne @LeanneSpurs]

10 Downing Street tonight.

[Ali Batu Karaali @ABATUKARAALI]

He seems definitely healthy (I like the new healthy minister of Hungry).
https://t.co/4ARbjcROQQ

[Ali Batu Karaali @ABATUKARAALI]

If #YSL logo designed by a street artist:

[Ali Batu Karaali @ABATUKARAALI]

Glocal -(GLObal-loCAL)

[Vsever 2.0 🏐 @Temmzvolley]

Kibariye ~ Sen oyna

Adidas ~ #FileninSultanları #FileninEfeleri tanıtımı

[Mesut Çevik @mesutcevik]

Dansçıların birbirleri ile değil ritimle senkron olmaları apayrı bir seviye. Görsellik şahane.

[Ali Batu Karaali @ABATUKARAALI]

ac kapa artema

[Ali Batu Karaali @ABATUKARAALI]

#Lookalikes:
#nuclear ,vs unclear

[Rania @umyaznemo]

That's hilarious! #Trump is the most searched idiot!

#google

[MarketMindsetPro @Realfinancial2]

#REALITY

[Quadcarl @Quadcarl]

Donald Trump going to war against Iran.

[𝚃𝙷𝙴 𝚆𝙷𝙸𝚃𝙴 𝚁𝙰𝙱𝙱𝙸𝚃 @thewhiterabbit]

😭💸🎻🤖

[Ali Batu Karaali @ABATUKARAALI]

Full interview: Anthropic CEO responds to Trump order, Pentagon clash https://t.co/zlCa3WogDM via @YouTube

[Ali Batu Karaali @ABATUKARAALI]

https://t.co/oJdFjIJtA0

[JUNK BOND ANALYST @junkbondanalyst]

Lloyd Blankfein’s 2002 Goldman Sachs 360-degree review.

Some good nuggets in here.

[Math Files @Math_files]

Bayes’ theorem is probably the single most important thing any rational person can learn.

So many of our debates and disagreements that we shout about are because we don’t understand Bayes’ theorem or how human rationality often works.

Bayes’ theorem is named after the 18th-century Thomas Bayes, and essentially it’s a formula that asks: when you are presented with all of the evidence for something, how much should you believe it?

Bayes’ theorem teaches us that our beliefs are not fixed; they are probabilities. Our beliefs change as we weigh new evidence against our assumptions, or our priors. In other words, we all carry certain ideas about how the world works, and new evidence can challenge them.

For example, somebody might believe that smoking is safe, that stress causes mouth ulcers, or that human activity is unrelated to climate change. These are their priors, their starting points. They can be formed by our culture, our biases, or even incomplete information.

Now imagine a new study comes along that challenges one of your priors. A single study might not carry enough weight to overturn your existing beliefs. But as studies accumulate, eventually the scales may tip. At some point, your prior will become less and less plausible.

Bayes’ theorem argues that being rational is not about black and white. It’s not even about true or false. It’s about what is most reasonable based on the best available evidence. But for this to work, we need to be presented with as much high-quality data as possible. Without evidence—without belief-forming data—we are left only with our priors and biases. And those aren’t all that rational.