Bilal

[Alphatica @alphaticaio]

Our credit stress detector tracks the IEI/HYG ratio (Treasuries vs. junk bonds) and measures what SPY and QQQ do after the spread hits extreme levels.

2,512 trading days. 267 two-sigma events. 10 years of data.

Here's what we found:

When credit stress spikes to +2σ (flight to safety), equities rally hard over the next 45 days:

SPY: +4.81% avg return, 73.4% win rate
QQQ: +7.13% avg return, 80.4% win rate
IWM: +4.51% avg return, 69.6% win rate

The March 2026 Iran shock hit +2.69σ on March 6th.

45 days later:
SPY +9.95%
QQQ +18.93%
IWM +13.73%

The signal caught the exact bottom.

But here's where it gets interesting.

When the ratio flips to the other extreme (z ≤ -2σ, peak risk-on), small caps diverge:

$SPY: +0.89% avg, 63.4% win rate
$QQQ: +1.66% avg, 63.4% win rate
$IWM : -0.01% avg, 37.8% win rate

82 events over 10 years. Large cap absorbs the flow at risk-on extremes. Small caps get left behind every time.

Current reading: -1.59σ. Risk-on, but not extreme.

The data says stay long SPY and QQQ. Underweight IWM until credit stress returns.

When does the next credit stress event flip this signal? That's what we're watching. $IEI $HYG

[John Kennedy @SenJohnKennedy]

If you turned President Xi Jinping upside down and shook him, Mauritius would fall out of his pocket.

We cannot let the UK hand over our shared military base on Diego Garcia to China’s BFF.

[Bilal @ABscalping]

@AmasPFT @grok

[Amas @AmasPFT]

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Show proof in the comments.

[Jake Lang - January 6 Political Prisoner 🇺🇸 @JakeLang]

Today we showed THE WORLD just how VIOLENT and disgusting the Muslim Stronghold of Dearborn TRULY IS!!

I was assaulted dozens of times, by little twig Pedophile worshipping Muslims,

My people had dirt thrown on them, spit on, food thrown on, pepper sprayed, and more

✝️ is KING

[Flux RPC @FluxRPC]

You’re coding smooth, everything’s clicking, then your RPC slows you down.

FluxRPC makes sure that never happens with speed and reliability you can count on.

Keep building. Try it free for 30 days → https://t.co/ZgyQNDFQ79

[david alan green @trader2179]

@stocktalkweekly When I bought apple at one dollar nobody was listening.

[Brett Simba @BrettSimba]

Today marks @Tradeify 1 year anniversary🎂

Giving away 5 $150k LF accounts to celebrate!

How to Enter:
1. Follow @brettsimba @GandalfTrader @Tradeify @TradeifyTV
2. RT/Like this post

Look out for specials all week long 👀

https://t.co/ypn7h1JwRO

[Matt Stringer @WestTxStringer]

Personal note: My family is from Kerrville and it’s been like a second home for me. These hill country communities are truly the heart beat of Texas. Covering this is hard - some of the names are family friends. My family is alright, just heartbroken like everyone else. Please continue to keep them in your prayers, and please be careful and considerate with what information you share regarding this disaster. Thanks! 🙏 🇺🇸

[RIPS @RIPS]

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Set those alarms, grab your coffee, and I'll catch you tomorrow! ✌️😎

[NEWSMAX @NEWSMAX]

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi and FBI Director Kash Patel announced that the U.S. Coast Guard seized over $509 million in illegal drugs during 13 interdictions by cutters James and Mohawk.

[Al Jazeera English @AJEnglish]

It’s too close to call, but Trump’s wins in Georgia and North Carolina give him more pathways to success than Harris.

🔗: https://t.co/b1se4piOG3

[Rasgard @rasgard]

Coinbase employees earn up to $500k/year.
Binance - $200k
A16Z - $200k
Ethereum Foundation - $150k

There are over 50,000 open jobs.
I've found ones that don't require coding skills! 🧵👇

[Bilal @ABscalping]

@dougboneparth 😂😂

[Bilal @ABscalping]

@JustinPulitzer @The_Real_Fly Yeah these European leaders are the epitome of dumbness. How in the world can you get so energy dependent on your adversary and basically financially support them but at the same time put sanctions on them. They are clearly sending conflicting messages to Putin the chess master.

[Bilal @ABscalping]

@dealflowrich 👋