AR Investments

Full time investor in public markets and buyout of SMBs

[AR Investments @ARInvest2025]

@evfcfaddict 2011 was the low of the housing cycle. Every building materials stock did well from there surely

[AR Investments @ARInvest2025]

@TaylorStCap @CapstackCapital But a capital structure clean-up was part of the thesis so I like it. The equity piece was also too small to be investable for many but in the end, much will depend on who the holders are

[AR Investments @ARInvest2025]

@TaylorStCap @CapstackCapital Generally, my view has been that a) they are over-levered so BS restructuring is positive and b) I valued them on EV multiples so switching debt to equity makes little difference.

Obviously they ended up doing it at a 20% discount, so that wasn't great

[AR Investments @ARInvest2025]

@UncleAlpha007 @TaylorStCap So it has very interesting optionality to a much bigger than expected raise. Again, the rate of change is massive. They launched a product in Q1 and in Q2 they win very significant immediate delivery orders

[AR Investments @ARInvest2025]

@UncleAlpha007 @TaylorStCap Its TBC how fast the business transforms. But what's interesting as a situation is that the next quarterly result will increase guidance significantly. If you read the transcript in Q1'26, their guidance increase was very conservative / numbers didn't change just timeline

[AR Investments @ARInvest2025]

@Mufasa_Capital Absolutely, he duped investors last year but since then their capital position and lack of cash flow has been painfully obvious to see despite his continued pronouncements. Their desperate £1-2m equity raise “to invest in a new product” was just the last icing on the sham

[AR Investments @ARInvest2025]

@subset_member Have you found any evidence that they are involved in any pilots / R&D programs with large scale AI related companies?

[AR Investments @ARInvest2025]

@subset_member But the abstract is a requirements talk, it is not saying they are doing any of it. Publicly, they have only talked about their 300mm waver capability and in this talk they position that capability as sufficient for prototyping

[AR Investments @ARInvest2025]

9/x The shareholder vote just about passed the arrangement and it now seems a formality for it to close. Idea origination in the public markets is a wild ride, sometimes things happen fast, sometimes very slowly. At least, there will always be another one.

[AR Investments @ARInvest2025]

1/x My post mortem on $ECN.TO. I've been following $ECN since 2021 when they sold their mortgage origination platform Service Finance. It was a huge financial success and the remaining, much smaller, manufactured housing origination business was positioned to go on a similar

[AR Investments @ARInvest2025]

8/x However, we won't know what might have. Management issued themselves lots of shares and then accepted a low ball offer in Nov25 at a 13% premium to the trading price but 0% premium to where shares traded in the 6 months prior.