Taylor St Cap

Stocks and other musings

[Taylor St Cap @TaylorStCap]

$SOC …. and you don’t think this gets done?

[Secretary Chris Wright @SecretaryWright]

California is the poster child of expensive energy policies—gas $2 higher than the national average, reliance on foreign oil imports, aggressive ‘clean energy’ taxes on every gallon at the pump.

That’s not the result of any global crisis, it’s the result of bad energy policies.

[Taylor St Cap @TaylorStCap]

$ADYEN $ADYEY and broader payments could be melting ice cubes here. Could be any of: threat of stablecoins, declining take rates, threat of agentic e-com, or expectation of AI-induced recession leading to job loss. But this is a sector with a massive headwind. Out of position.

[Taylor St Cap @TaylorStCap]

@CaptainZwink @karttikea @Woirble Hahaha I was thinking the same thing. Let’s just all relax and see what happens Monday

[Taylor St Cap @TaylorStCap]

$SOC presentation not the golden bullet we had hoped for. Nothing negative, and positives include oil volumes above expectations and confirmation of debt for debt refi, but hopefully more to come on conference call

[Taylor St Cap @TaylorStCap]

@TheJusticeDept I know an account or two that front runs their trades prior to manipulating stock price via pumping to large FinTwit audiences. I know @joinyellowbrick does too. Slide in my DMs

[Bloomberg @business]

Andrew Left, one of the world’s most prominent short sellers, was found guilty of securities fraud by a US federal jury after a landmark trial that scrutinized his use of social media to move the price of stocks. More here: https://t.co/dgG4caKEO0

📷: Eric Thayer/Bloomberg

[Taylor St Cap @TaylorStCap]

And anon still doesn’t think $SOC “just figures it out” despite Secretaries Wright, Burgum, and Duffy choppering to the platform this week? You really think they do all this just for equity to get wiped and Flores to lose interest in this? Markets are missing something obvious

[Megatron @Megatron_ron]

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is less than 10 days away from falling to its lowest level since August 1983- a level not seen since the SPR's initial fill-up that began in 1977- per Petroleum Analyst Patrick De Haan.

[Taylor St Cap @TaylorStCap]

Excellent win by $ADYEN, beating out Stripe and other competitors. “Dying business” ?

[B @bpol69]

$ADYEN

[Taylor St Cap @TaylorStCap]

I know some of ya’ll are nervous af right now. If you’ve ever front run a trade prior to posting dubious information to FinTwit, prepare for investigation

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: Citron Research founder and short seller Andrew Left found guilty of securities fraud.

Prosecutors say he illegally influenced share prices through tweets, making $20,000,000

[Taylor St Cap @TaylorStCap]

@ESGhound It’s certainly higher risk. But I also specifically recall you stating multiple times that oil would never flow from $SOC, which you were of course incorrect about. Did your entire bear case hinge on their cases being heard by biased CA courts vs federal courts?

[Taylor St Cap @TaylorStCap]

@CraterLukenda Good thoughts. Market, perhaps more in line with my view, may be too myopically focused as well. I think there was likely expectation of DOE funding built into equity price, and Flores squashing that deflated stock a bit. Feels overdone $SOC … big day on 6/8 to regain momo

[Taylor St Cap @TaylorStCap]

Still not exactly sure what the point of this all was. Holding out hope that there’s at least one more nugget on the 11am call. 3 weeks now on refi … $SOC

[Taylor St Cap @TaylorStCap]

$SOC presentation not the golden bullet we had hoped for. Nothing negative, and positives include oil volumes above expectations and confirmation of debt for debt refi, but hopefully more to come on conference call

[Taylor St Cap @TaylorStCap]

@c_MANANA_ @Lipsman They’re the lead bank. They’re not leading the refinancing lol

[Taylor St Cap @TaylorStCap]

I wonder why it took multiple calls with the DOE for $SOC to determine they weren’t eligible for a loan. Strange stuff IMO. Let’s see what 6/8 holds, which I imagine is a significant day for the refi. Still think this gets done, though on more onerous terms than from DOE

[Taylor St Cap @TaylorStCap]

Fed to offer $SOC “operational support as opposed to financial support.” $SOC doesn’t quality for federal support because of significant cash flow profile over coming decades. Flores does not come across as nervous regarding the refi. Burgum and Duffy onsite this week.

[Taylor St Cap @TaylorStCap]

@harvesttrad Flores just essentially said no DOE financing because don’t qualify for hardship $SOC … also confirmed that DOE and DOT heads will be on-site later this week

[Taylor St Cap @TaylorStCap]

@duedillengence Ah - I see. They did drop that language. Good catch

[Taylor St Cap @TaylorStCap]

@VictoryII1 @duedillengence What about the updated pres leads you to believe that shareholder return has been pushed out? Debt paydown was always a part of the thesis (has to get paid down eventually…) and DOE refi paired with better than expected output still bullish … think you’re overly pessimistic

[Taylor St Cap @TaylorStCap]

@chrizc @bobspaysubstack Certainly. And most 20%+ growers with industry leading margins don’t trade at IFRS 18x ex-unencumbered cash. There’s a massive disconnect, and when you combine Ethan’s departure with $WISE news, the market is given the ability to further exacerbate that disconnect. PR would help

[Taylor St Cap @TaylorStCap]

If $ADYEY $ADYEN was a US stock I would buy this dip. They would come out with a PR, clear up any misconceptions that are spooking markets, and provide a mid-quarter print on volume growth and expected sales. Reality is that Euro mgmt teams seemingly care less about this stuff