EB

Whatever is has already been, and what will be has been before.

[EB @A_Life_Shared]

@LawrenceLepard @DonDurrett I'd vote yes just so he stops posting about crypto. By all means though, keep posting about Bitcoin. Not the same.

[EB @A_Life_Shared]

@Andre_Dragosch Why do you consider ETPs to be institutional money? 70-80% of the buyers of an ETP are retail. ETPs are just a conduit.

[EB @A_Life_Shared]

That's their point. None of the increase in balance sheet has come from Bitcoin NGU. Strategy has raised ~63 billion of capital (debt and equity) and used that with some initial cash and operating cash flow to fund ~64 billion of Bitcoin purchases and the value of the Bitcoin they have spent 64 billion buying over half a decade is now 53 billion.

[EB @A_Life_Shared]

@ErinEMalone @KobeissiLetter I like Bitcoin but what's the problem with the post? It's factual.

[EB @A_Life_Shared]

@orangeyield @ActuallyClimber Genuinely curious - in what ways does climber keep being right? Most people got to know him for his advocacy of Metaplanet, which proved spectacularly wrong.

[EB @A_Life_Shared]

@SuppressedNws1 Why does his face have so little expression? It's like watching lip flap on a limited animation cartoon.

[EB @A_Life_Shared]

@CryptoTaxFixer What are your thoughts on the prosect of the exit tax rate mean reverting as way of closing the exits prior to or or part of planned financial repression (higher inflation and income/capital gains rates)?

[EB @A_Life_Shared]

@Shelli_BH

[EB @A_Life_Shared]

@AndreasSteno You don't think this mean reverts through inflation, fiscal policy, and tariff-driven reshoring? The vast majority of people just accept this as their fait accompli while productivity gains accrue unabated to capital?

[EB @A_Life_Shared]

I've never met you nor will I likely but I would like to say thanks. These past couple of cycles have reinforced what I intuitively knew: that it's so important to figure out who to listen to. I am partial to people that are not loud but are analytical, deliberate, consistent, and thoughtful. Over the years in this space, that list has become embarrassingly short as so many have strayed. Grateful for your content.

[EB @A_Life_Shared]

@SDUnitedComm @GnosisWolf That would be all colleges.

[EB @A_Life_Shared]

@RonSwanonson @orangeyield Fair. I'm probably just less tolerant or able to withstand underperforming the broader market by ~20x over a couple of decades which is what gold, another finite asset that's being adopted, did 1980-2000.

[EB @A_Life_Shared]

This gets to the heart of the issue. Holding from 69k down to 16k was easier than the current drawdown from 126k to 65k.

Why? Because in prior cycles it was easier to believe in meaningfully higher highs. You could accept holding through the volatility if it meant eventual outsized returns.

But the compression has been brutal. Bitcoin couldn't even 2x the last ATH. We're sitting at a price level similar to what we tagged in 2021.

I worked on wall street for two decades in fixed income. The only advantage retail investors have is their ability to be patient. But there are real world limits to that patience. It's one thing to wait through one cycle, but to have to wait and see for a decade to understand if a particular cycle is an aberration or not is a huge opportunity cost.

I've also found all the attempts to understand Bitcoin's LT price movements disconcerting. Nobody really seems to have a handle on the actual market. S2F, M2, gold, PMI, power law, metcalf's law ... as soon as one correlation breaks a new rainbow chart gets drawn.

I want Bitcoin to succeed for ideological reasons but I don't know if I'm prepared to significantly underperform the market for decades (ala gold 1980-2000) to support it. I'm too old for that degree of time preference.

[EB @A_Life_Shared]

@jakeg_official Can't stop, won't stop sinning. 3500 years of ignoring the Torah.

You shall not lie with a male as with a woman; it is an abomination
-Leviticus 18:22

[EB @A_Life_Shared]

@stopdontshoporg Sentiment must be changing when businesses start coveting an SDS listing

[EB @A_Life_Shared]

Like when they were waiting for the halving cycle pump that never came, or the sovereign adoption that didn't materialize, or for it to catch up with M2, or for it to catch up to gold, or for it to catch up with IGV, and on and on and on.

Just another prospective catalyst to help keep the faith while we come up to the fifth anniversary of the last bull run of any significance.

[EB @A_Life_Shared]

@OnrampBitcoin Is patience the lesson?

Even with gold's recent appreciation, it has significantly underperformed equities since 2011.

Wait 9 years to start to see price appreciation again only to still massively underperform equities?

Not a very compelling proposition.

[EB @A_Life_Shared]

@SovereignBTCer @MilkRoad @BarrySilbert https://t.co/9VPSB28TFF

[Alex 👽 @AlexesNakamoto]

Raoul Pal’s investment track record is truly unmatched:

🚩 2020: Calls BlockFi & Silvergate "most trusted"
🚩 2021: Calls Terra Luna "risk-free"
🚩 2025: Goes "massively overweight" SUI
❓ May 2026: Just announced he bought Zcash

[EB @A_Life_Shared]

@Eric_BIGfund A negative real return over 5 years IS most appropriately described as surviving.

[EB @A_Life_Shared]

@AuronMacintyre Paul is childless. Time will do its thing.