Aaron David Miller

Senior fellow @CarnegieEndow and host of #CarnegieConnects. Former State Dept. analyst, adviser, negotiator in Republican and Democratic Administrations.

[Aaron David Miller @aarondmiller2]

Will America ever have another truly great President? Probably not. Greatness requires 3Cs— crisis; character; capacity. A rare combo. https://t.co/pWmlp1p6iX

[Aaron David Miller @aarondmiller2]

Fascinating. Instead of setting up campaign HQ in Washington to reelect Netanyahu, Trump appears to be pressuring him. Trump's conversation with Ahmed Sharaa at NATO and today's Israeli-Lebanese talks in Rome clearly helped.

[Barak Ravid @BarakRavid]

Scoop: President Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a phone call Thursday that Israel should start redeploying its forces out of Syria and urged him to do the same in Lebanon. My story on @axios
https://t.co/7fcRQU5abQ

[Aaron David Miller @aarondmiller2]

Cuts through the noise with clear and trenchant analysis. We haven't yet reached - and may not -a hurting stalemate causing enough pain and prospects of gain necessary for each side to be open to a serious negotiation.

[Robert Malley @Rob_Malley]

Thoughts on how US and Iran got here:

1. It’s worth remembering that this war is being fought over an issue -- the status of the Strait of Hormuz -- that wasn’t even in dispute before the previous war. In other words, today’s war would not be happening without the prior one, which should never have happened at all.

2. The breakdown of the MOU reflects its remarkably shoddy, imprecise drafting. One could drive a truck – or an aircraft carrier – through paragraph 5 on Hormuz, with Washington & Tehran each pointing to different clauses to assert diametrically opposed interpretations.

3. The breakdown also reflects the two sides’ widely differing assessments of who has greater leverage and who can better withstand a return to war. Iran believes the US will crack first under soaring oil prices and rattled markets. The US believes Iran will crack first as its funds dwindle and its infrastructure is further degraded. At least one side is overplaying its hand. Most likely, both are.

4. Finally, the breakdown reflects dysfunctionalities within both political systems.
In Tehran, there are growing signs of a split in the leadership -- between those who want to cash in on battlefield gains through diplomacy, and those who believe the ceasefire came prematurely, before the US had truly felt the economic pain, and that in any event Iran cannot trust American commitments.
In Washington, there are constant signs of a split within Trump himself -- between moments when he worries about the economic costs of war, and moments when he casually waves them away.

The most plausible off-ramp is for the mediators to broker a modus vivendi over Hormuz : Iran halts attacks on commercial shipping; the US scales back its efforts to develop alternative transit routes through the Strait.

But, put the elements together, and prospects look ominous : elements on both sides believe they can absorb the costs of escalation and, more importantly, that they must prove it; Iran will be tempted to widen the conflict by striking more – and more vital -- regional targets; and Trump will be tempted to double down on an already lawless campaign...

[Aaron David Miller @aarondmiller2]

Why are we green lighting Saudi strikes that could end up rattling Houthis to constrain another chokepoint -- this time the Bab al-Mandeb. The Straits aren't enough?

[Barak Ravid @BarakRavid]

Scoop: Trump gave Saudi crown prince his backing for risky strikes on Houthis. My story on @axios
https://t.co/xvI3mKnL5I

[Aaron David Miller @aarondmiller2]

The only thing that might surpass this in strategic malpractice is the Trump Administration's complete underestimation of Iran's capacity to resist US military pressure and weaponize geography by leveraging the Straits.

[Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش @citrinowicz]

״נעשה את המקסימום״ — כך יצאה מדינת ישראל למהלך אסטרטגי חסר תקדים, כשהיא נשענת על הכוחות הכורדיים ועל דמות הפכפכה כמו מחמוד אחמדינז׳אד. הפרסום הזה ממחיש יותר מכל את עומק הכשל האסטרטגי הישראלי ביחס לאיראן.

ישראל התנתה את המהלך בחיסולו של עלי ח׳אמנהאי, דווקא האיש ששימש במשך שנים כגורם מרסן במערכת האיראנית. ח׳אמנהאי הסתייג מיוזמות להתקדמות לעבר נשק גרעיני וחשש מאוד מהפעלה בלתי מבוקרת של הכוח האיראני. במקומו נוצרה הנהגה הנשלטת במידה רבה יותר בידי משמרות המהפכה, שכעת כמעט שאין גורם המסוגל להגביל אותם בסוגיות הללו.

לכך נוספה ההסתמכות על הכוחות הכורדיים, אף שהסיכוי שיוכלו להשתלט על שטחים, להחזיק בהם ולהתקדם לעבר טהראן היה אפסי. מעבר לחולשתם המבצעית, טורקיה לא הייתה מאפשרת תרחיש כזה להתפתח.

חמור לא פחות היה הניסיון לבסס תוכנית להחלפת המשטר על אחמדינז׳אד, שהוא דמות בלתי צפויה, חסרת מוקדי כוח משמעותיים בתוך המשטר וללא בסיס תמיכה שהיה מאפשר לה להנהיג את איראן ביום שאחרי.

זוהי שרשרת של הנחות עבודה מופרכות, הערכות מודיעיניות כושלות ותכנון אסטרטגי מנותק מהמציאות. זהו חומר לוועדת חקירה ממלכתית, משום שהטעויות הללו לא רק הכשילו את המהלך אלא הן הציבו את ישראל לאחר המלחמה במציאות אסטרטגית חמורה ומסוכנת בהרבה מזו שבה הייתה לפניה.

[Aaron David Miller @aarondmiller2]

.@carnegieendow @ceipstatecraft Is Israel losing America? Join me tomorrow Monday July 13 1 pm EDT in conversation @secupp @RonBrownstein3 Register here: https://t.co/zKTAciUxcg

[Aaron David Miller @aarondmiller2]

Predictions on war and peace are tough to make. Life’s uncertain. But it’s hard to see right now how either of these will materialize.

[Margaret Brennan @margbrennan]

SENATOR GRAHAM ON JUNE 21 FTN: "If this deal fails, President Trump is going to take the Strait of Hormuz over by force. The United States will control the Strait of Hormuz. We'll charge a fee for all those who go through- through to pay for the operation, and we're going to expand the Abraham Accords in calendar year 2026."

[Aaron David Miller @aarondmiller2]

Having worked/voted for Rs/Ds, it seems sad to consider - would any single event allow us to mourn or celebrate as a nation. 250 might have provided an opportunity for latter. But it was hijacked and politicized by an Administration that seems to want to keep us divided.

[Aaron David Miller @aarondmiller2]

Five months on, Trump Administration may have finally defined its objectives. What began as an effort to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon has now devolved into a quest to deny Iran leverage over Straits and get out of the war. Unfortunately, Trump cannot achieve both.

[Aaron David Miller @aarondmiller2]

The box Trump put himself in is remarkable. Focus of the war was to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapons has now devolved into a single focus on reopening Straits free and unfettered before war began. Try to explain that to a family paying more for gas and groceries.

[Barak Ravid @BarakRavid]

💥🇮🇷🇺🇸Iran strikes cargo ship in Strait of Hormuz, defying U.S. ultimatum. My report on @axios
https://t.co/2ATM1sNb51

[Aaron David Miller @aarondmiller2]

Trump is in a box; and Vance is trying to say he isn't. Below President, no US official is more identified w/bad negotiating that led to Memorandum of Misunderstanding. It was Vance in Switzerland who agreed to deconfliction comm linking Lebanon to MOU.

[Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss]

If you want to know where things stand with the MOU and U.S.-Iranian "ceasefire," have I got a special Saturday afternoon treat for you. Below are excerpts of what J.D. Vance told a group of reporters in a background call yesterday at around 3 o'clock in the afternoon. I wasn't on the call but someone kindly sent me a transcript.

As you know, the MOU isn't looking so hot right now. Iran keeps opening fire on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and the CENTCOM spent two nights this week retaliating, striking at least 170 Iranian targets, including "air defense systems, coastal surveillance assets, missile and drone storage sites, naval capabilities, and military logistics infrastructure along Iran’s coastline."

Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were also on the call yesterday, but Vance, rumored to be the "fall guy" if this tenuous deal collapses, led the conversation. He did it so well that at one point Witkoff professed he had "nothing to add" to a "perfect articulation of where we are today."

When asked if perhaps Iran didn't interpret the MOU to mean that Iran was in control of the Strait of Hormuz, the Vice President said: "What happened is they were caught off guard after they signed the MOU by how rapidly traffic was moving, and especially how much traffic was moving through the southern lane of the Strait of Hormuz. So in reality, and we saw this again with many of the pragmatic people within their system, they recognized that our interpretation was not just reasonable, but it was the only plausible interpretation. That some of the hardliners, and you can even see this in some of the social media posts, started to attack [Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas] Araghchi and [Speaker of Iranian Parliament Mohammad] Ghalibaf for making a bad deal. This is not an interpretive difference. What it is is that certain elements within Iran decided, 'Oh wait, we gave up leverage that we didn't want to give up.' They decided to renege on the deal. So I think it's very important to characterize this accurately, and it's not a reinterpretation of the MOU. They they were reneging on the deal because they felt caught off guard by how quickly oil and gas was moving through the southern channel."

Paragraph 5 of the agreement states: "Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels, with no charge for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and de-mining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be instated within 30 days."

Most read this as implicit confirmation that Tehran did indeed control the Strait; otherwise, why would the Iranians have to make arrangements for the safe passage of commercial vessels and why would they have to de-mine a waterway they had no custody over?

Vance now says that's not how to read paragraph 5 at all. Rather, the U.S. is simply a victim of its own naval success. By opening the Strait, the "pragmatic" Iranians acknowledged their loss of leverage but the hardline radicals felt bamboozled and started firing at commercial ships and, well, here we are now!

Vance is very disappointed in the Iranians, maybe even in the cool new super-friends he's made in the IRGC. "The simple deal was," he said, "we lift the blockade, and the Iranians stop shooting at ships, and that's the easiest but the most important end of the bargain for the Iranians to keep. And so far, I would give them an F on, or at least a D minus, on keeping their end of the bargain."

(Earlier in the call, Kushner said: "Iran is showing a lot of signs of wanting to make this deal.")

But what if it all falls apart? Not to worry, Vance assured reporters, "it's not a forever war if the Iranians violate the terms of the agreement and shoot commercial shipping, and and we respond to it."

They can shoot, we can shoot, and this can go on indefinitely -- but no forever war. Got that? Please don't put in the newspaper this is a forever war.

What else did J.D. Vance say yesterday?

Remember the Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU), or "nuclear dust" (it's not dust), to which Trump often alludes? Removing or destroying HEU was one of the objectives of Operation Epic Fury. Except Trump suggested weeks ago -- round about the time said it'd be very unfair to leave Iran without an arsenal of ballistic missiles (even though doing so was another stated objective of the war) -- that he might not even bother trying to remove the HEU from Iran at all, as the stuff was not very "valuable."

Vance now hints at leaving the HEU right where it is; the U.S. might just entomb it: "You know, look, either they're going to give us the nuclear dust, or we have very low-cost military options to ensure that it remains buried underground forever." (The reporter who asked about this noted that the U.S. might have just used such a low-cost military option earlier in the campaign but didn't because it expected to exfiltrate the HEU somehow.)

Vance was also queried about reported Israeli intelligence suggesting that the Iranians are still plotting to assassinate Trump. "On on the question of what Israeli intelligence about assassination slots and so forth," he responded, "I've seen the same public reporting that you guys have seen. I'm not going to comment on, you know, private conversations that have been had between you know leaders in our government and leaders in their government. What I will say with great confidence is Donald Trump is not a person who makes decisions based on fear or based on threats to his personal safety."

With great confidence, he says that.

Donald Trump posted to TruthSocial last night, about eight hours after this background briefing, about what happens in the event Iran assassinates him or tries to assassinate him: "1000 Missiles are Locked and Loaded and aimed at the Islamic Republic of Iran, with thousands of more to immediately follow, should the Iranian Government act on its threat, pronounced in many corners of the Globe, to assassinate, or attempt to assassinate, the sitting President of the United States of America, in this case, ME!"

We are therefore invited to believe that J.D. Vance, who would succeed Donald Trump as president of the United States in the event of Trump's assassination by the Iranian government, is prepared to fire these thousand missiles at Iran. But not in a forever war kind of way, mind you.

[Aaron David Miller @aarondmiller2]

Hard to imagine Iran has reached pain threshold to concede that in good https://t.co/3MUxseh1vn believe Iran's desire to control Straits results from rogue elements is to believe in fairy tales.There may be differences. But it's what powers currently running the railroad want.

[Barak Ravid @BarakRavid]

🇮🇷🇴🇲🇶🇦Qatari officials are participating in the talks between Iran and Oman in Muscat over the strait of Hormuz, per diplomat with knowledge
🚢A regional source said the parties are discussing a potential statement on full opening of the "median lane" in the strait of Hormuz (which is in international waters) for full and free movement

[Aaron David Miller @aarondmiller2]

.@carnegieendow @ceipstatecraft @foreignpolicy @Rene_MarshCNN @jmhansler @ZcohenCNN Does Trump have the best folks in place to do successful diplomacy? Let the results speak for themselves.https://t.co/ndcpd0ko4M

[Aaron David Miller @aarondmiller2]

.@carnegieendow @ceipstatecraft Join me @secupp @ronbrownstein Monday July 13 1 pm EDT in conversation Is Israel Losing America? Register here: https://t.co/G7MzFeizV6

[Aaron David Miller @aarondmiller2]

Surely worthwhile. But fact remains two basic objectives of MOU are in direct conflict �� ceasefire and reopening Straits. Iran is prepared to sacrifice former to keep control of latter. This isn’t a negotiating ploy; it’s a core demand of IRGC which is literally calling shots.

[Barak Ravid @BarakRavid]

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇶🇦Qatari negotiators have travelled to Iran, in coordination with the US, to meet with Iranian officials in an effort to de-escalate the situation and create the conditions for negotiations to resume, according to a diplomat with knowledge of the visit
🇺🇸🇮🇷🇶🇦The diplomat said meetings in Tehran between Qatari and Iranian official are still ongoing "but it’s clear both sides want to come back to the MOU"

[Aaron David Miller @aarondmiller2]

Fighting to save our Republic. Thanks to these extraordinary judges standing up for rule of law and everyone who worked to make this such a success. So proud of you Danny Miller and Democracy RIsing Collaborative

[Danny Miller @DanielMillerEsq]

This is so powerful. Inspired by the March of a Thousand Robes in Poland, retired and sitting judges in the United States walked down the streets of Columbus to stand up for the Rule of Law. @DemRisingCollab @keep_republic

[Aaron David Miller @aarondmiller2]

Terrific reporting @laurnorman Clearly Iranians had better lawyers than US. At same time, regardless of what para 5 says, Iran is determined to impose new rules of road over Straits. It's not negotiating tactic; it's now a foundational requirement. https://t.co/szUv6bEidI

[Aaron David Miller @aarondmiller2]

It’s clear the Administration is ramping up a more intense phase of military operations against Iran. Israeli COS Zamir reportedly informed pilots war with Iran is not over. Fascinating to consider how Trump is thinking about IDF’srole in next campaign

[Barak Ravid @BarakRavid]

President Trump spoke on Thursday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and discussed the situation in Iran, Israeli Prime Minister's office said in a statement

[Aaron David Miller @aarondmiller2]

That everything now comes down to opening Straits - unfettered before war began - raises not only the absurd question almost 6 months in what was point of the enterprise; but equally absurd reality that who wins or loses war will be determined by their ultimate disposition.

[Barak Ravid @BarakRavid]

🇺🇸🇮🇷With Iran ceasefire "over," Trump shifts to battle for Hormuz. My story on @axios
https://t.co/a08kEry3ch

[Aaron David Miller @aarondmiller2]

Trump's capacity to manipulate and fool the markets and others is remarkable. The problem when it comes to reading Iran correctly, is that he's fooling himself too.

[Barak Ravid @BarakRavid]

President Trump told reporters on Air Force One that the Iranians "called a little while ago. They want to make a deal". He added that the U.S. strikes on Iran on Wednesday were 20:1 response to the Iranian attacks against commercial ships. "We hit them pretty hard. When they hit we hit back much harder", he said

[Aaron David Miller @aarondmiller2]

The happiest man today in the Middle East is Prime Minister Netanyahu. He hopes his Iran project is back on. https://t.co/NepcCEr0WL