American Statecraft Program

Insights on Statecraft from @CarnegieEndow. Clear eyed about the world. Meeting the urgent need for a disciplined U.S. foreign policy.

[American Statecraft Program @CEIPStatecraft]

Who is Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi? Why is she so popular? And what does she believe?

Listen to @CChivvis and Yuki Tatsumi as they analyze Japan's new and energetic leader.

Full Episode: https://t.co/LhCOmPZHPg

[American Statecraft Program @CEIPStatecraft]

Can a Democratic Congress constrain Trump on foreign policy?

Statecraft Visiting Fellow @JenniferHWhite discusses how Democratic majorities could check the President, and which structural limitations might hinder their efforts.

https://t.co/WcABeJInaA

[American Statecraft Program @CEIPStatecraft]

New Episode of Pivotal States: Should America Want a Stronger Japan?

On this episode of Pivotal States, @CChivvis sits down with Yuki Tatsumi, a senior director at the Institute for Indo-Pacific Security. They examine the U.S.–Japan alliance, Japan’s rearmament, and the future of Japanese relations with the other major powers in the Indo-Pacific.

https://t.co/uXF5OVTKPJ

[Carnegie Endowment @CarnegieEndow]

The U.S. midterms gave Democrats the gavel and the purse. But the White House still pulls the strings.

Carnegie experts broke down what kind of impact the new Congress could make, from nuclear policy to international institutions: https://t.co/lGMW7ecjhB

[Aaron David Miller @aarondmiller2]

.@CarnegieEndow @CEIPStatecraft The Arab parties are potential kingmakers; but will they have kings to crown? https://t.co/0IlKywruET

[Aaron David Miller @aarondmiller2]

.@carnegieendow @ceipstatecraft Join me Friday October 30 in conversation @natansachs @MiddleEastInst for the best analysis of Israeli elections on the planet. Register here: https://t.co/CKVNjJQLc5

[Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim]

The domestic foundation of American global power is crumbling. Trump is less the cause than a symptom and an accelerant. Since the Cold War ended, the United States has pursued global primacy under an implicit bargain with the public: dominance would come cheap. Today Americans are no more willing to bear serious costs for foreign policy than they were in the 1990s. But a far more competitive world is driving up the price of upholding U.S. commitments.

No matter who wins the White House in 2028, this gap will constrain American power around the world.

In a new @CarnegieEndow paper, I trace the U.S. foreign-policy consensus from the Cold War to the present and outline three scenarios for the future:

[American Statecraft Program @CEIPStatecraft]

NEW ESSAY from the Future of American Power Project: "The End of Primacy Without Pain: Why the Domestic Foundation of American Power Is Crumbling"

American Statecraft Senior Fellow @stephenwertheim explores the disconnect between expansive U.S. foreign-policy commitments and a public unwilling to foot the bill.

"The foreign-policy consensus is, then, breaking down. Yet what is fracturing is not the consensus many suppose, namely an eight-decade attachment to leading a "liberal" or "rules-based" international order. Americans waged the Cold War less because they valued world order per se than because they felt threatened by communism at home and abroad. With their support, the United States defended the "free world," defined negatively as non-communist. Since 1989, America has engaged in more explicit and universal order-building, but most Americans have been asked to sacrifice little for the cause. Now Washington is walking away from its project of world-ordering, while the public sees no Cold War–sized threat. For how long can the country uphold far-flung defense obligations while American citizens decline to pay much more for the privilege?"

Read the full essay here:

https://t.co/RTnvj1gYx4

[American Statecraft Program @CEIPStatecraft]

NEW ESSAY from the Future of American Power Project — What Canada Knows About American Power

President of the Centre for International Governance Innovation, @PaulRSamson, writes of what Canadians have learned about allying with the United States from their decades of shared history:

"American pressure has been present in some form for most of Canada’s history. Washington has threatened Canadian territory, limited access to its market, interfered in Canada’s nuclear-defense debates, imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum, asserted extraterritorial jurisdiction, and quietly threatened consequences for Ottawa’s foreign-policy choices that did not align with U.S. ones...Canada’s long experience with America can give an indication of how the latter’s relationships with other allies will play out, especially as the form and scope of American power evolves through control over the new operating infrastructure of modern economies, including data architectures, financial payment rails, digital platforms, and artificial intelligence (AI) systems."

Read more of his piece here:
https://t.co/DXDCZHe9N9

[American Statecraft Program @CEIPStatecraft]

"Let's talk about Israel..."

Listen to @CChivvis and @asliaydintasbas as they discuss a dangerous new rivalry in the Middle East and what the US should do about it.

Listen to the full episode here:
https://t.co/hFpp5JfAJP

[American Statecraft Program @CEIPStatecraft]

NEWEST ESSAY from the Future of American Power Project:
Squandering Attraction: How the Second Trump Administration is Undermining American Soft Power

Acting Co-Director and and Senior Fellow of Carnegie's Middle East Program, Sarah Yerkes, analyzes the sources of American soft power and the damage that has been done to it in recent years:

"The clearest example [of the damage to American soft power] is the destruction of USAID, which branded its assistance as “from the American people” and played an important role in building up the United States’ moral authority and exposing populations to its goodwill. Research has shown that U.S. foreign assistance broadly boosts soft power, with health aid showing the clearest measured effect. In a similar vein, the hobbling of the National Endowment for Democracy...has undermined the trust Washington built with pro-democracy movements across the world over decades. The destruction of U.S. public diplomacy tools also makes it harder to communicate positive messages about America to the world.”

Read more of her piece here:
https://t.co/h114Uy0lf6

[American Statecraft Program @CEIPStatecraft]

New Episode of Pivotal States: How Türkiye Navigates a World of War

How is Türkiye using its middle power status to shape the United States’ war with Iran? What is its role in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in Gaza? Why does Türkiye favor negotiation with Russia over letting the war in Ukraine continue? What does Trump’s relationship with Erdoğan tell us about his administration's foreign policy?

On this episode of Pivotal States, @CChivvis sits down with @asliaydintasbas, a fellow at the Brookings Institution and director of the Turkey project. They discuss U.S.–Türkiye relations, Türkiye's regional ambitions, and the role this U.S. ally has to play in shaping international politics.

Listen now: https://t.co/zewV6vTmuU

[American Statecraft Program @CEIPStatecraft]

Statecraft in the Media:

In Brookings Senior Fellow Thomas Wright's newest for The Atlantic, he quotes Jeremy Cliffe's essay, "The Alternative für Deutschland and Germany’s Unsettled Place in the World," published as part of our recent compendium analyzing right-wing populist foreign policy in the middle powers.

Read Jeremy's piece, as well as the others in the series, here:

https://t.co/F2mzp8EFaZ

[American Statecraft Program @CEIPStatecraft]

NEWEST ESSAY from the Future of American Power Project: Recasting American Power in Latin America.

Former NSC Senior Director for the Western Hemisphere @Cartajuanero analyzes what American power looks like to the U.S.' southern neighbors:

"China’s rise as a commercial power in the hemisphere, the fragmentation of democratic consensus, and the region’s growing economic sophistication have reshaped the competitive landscape regardless of any single administration’s choices. The result is an efficiency problem: The United States is paying more in diplomatic effort, political capital, and coercive instruments while generating less in durable alignment and strategic returns."

Read more of his analysis here: https://t.co/sAaLgFZYPG

[American Statecraft Program @CEIPStatecraft]

In discussions of world order, the ascendance of Donald Trump has often obscured the fact that right-wing populist leaders have arisen in a number of important middle powers around the world. Figures such as Javier Milei in Argentina, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Turkey, Viktor Orbán in Hungary, and Narendra Modi in India have reshaped aspects of their countries’ foreign policies while challenging elements of the liberal international order—sometimes in ways similar to Trumpism, sometimes in ways that contrast with it.

How have the right-wing populists in middle powers transformed their countries’ approaches to the world? What ideas and tactics do these leaders share, and where do their agendas diverge? What are the limits to this greater cooperation among populist governments, especially when these leaders privilege national sovereignty above all else?

To mark the release of the compendium, "The Populist Turn in Middle Power Diplomacy,” join Carnegie’s @CChivvis as he engages three contributing authors, @CFieschi, Federico Merke, and @VeghZsuzsanna. Together, they will discuss how populism is shaping diplomacy, the opportunities and constraints these leaders face, and what their rise could mean for the future of international relations.

Register Here: https://t.co/Q0mJXFpI0c

[American Statecraft Program @CEIPStatecraft]

NEWEST ESSAY from the Future of American Power: "American Power: A View from China"

Professor at Shanghai's Fudan University, Wu Xinbo, details how Chinese strategists have changed their views about the United States, as the former hegemon has declined in relative power and influence.

"The shift in Chinese attitudes toward the United States is illustrative of the shrinking superiority in American power. For a long time, China had looked upon America as a country with advanced science and technology, a prosperous economy, and comprehensive national strength.

"Indeed, from the 1980s to the 2000s, as China endeavored to turn itself into a prosperous modern country, it viewed the United States as a positive example. As the power gap between the two countries narrowed in the 2010s, however, Chinese strategists began to treat the U.S. less and less like a formidable power, while more people in China began to look down upon the United States as a country plagued by sluggish economic growth, political stalemate and conflict, and poor domestic governance.

"Interestingly, nowadays, Chinese academics are more interested in studying the United States’ mistakes, rather than its successes."

LINK:https://t.co/jaeqsqjT5V

[American Statecraft Program @CEIPStatecraft]

Traditional conservatives used to defend international law. What's happened?

Read Statecraft scholar Heather Penatzer's newest piece in Foreign Policy with Luke Nicastro for how the American right, and international law too, have changed.

https://t.co/KI1bXMCn3b