Abby

Entrepreneur | Real Estate Debt Buyer | Small Business Debt Buyer | Investor | Husband | Climber | Animal Lover STEM Enthusiast | Red-Blooded American

[Abby @AbbyShemesh]

Happy 250 - I am very grateful to be a living man located in the USofA.

Here’s to another 250!

[Abby @AbbyShemesh]

@GovRonDeSantis @RonDeSantis Thank you

[Abby @AbbyShemesh]

@AlexBerenson Dear Earth…. This is what journalism looks like. I absolutely do not agree with all of the views of this @AlexBerenson, but that’s not the point. His character is what matters - fantastic job Alex!

[Abby @AbbyShemesh]

@JosephAbehsera Spot on !

[Abby @AbbyShemesh]

100% agree with statement with hine sight being 20/20! I was one of those knuckleheads that thought @jack was leading the charge on censorship, but I couldn’t reconcile how he can be a bitcoin maximalist, and then want to steam roll censorship throughout his platform that he birthed into this world. Now we know! Thanks to who else other than the one and only @elonmusk

[Abby @AbbyShemesh]

@GeneralMCNews @grok what do you make of this? Is this accurate? Please be precise and provide a percentage or certainty of you find yourself needing to guess.

[Abby @AbbyShemesh]

@RepThomasMassie This whole thing is nuts!

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

BITCOIN’S 4-YEAR CYCLE JUST DIED AND NOBODY NOTICED

Crypto Twitter exploded calling October 6th the cycle peak. Eighty-four percent crashes incoming. Bear market confirmed. Pack it up.

Except the math says they are catastrophically wrong.

Every indicator that called previous tops with surgical precision sits completely dormant. Pi Cycle untriggered at $114,000 while its threshold waits at $205,600.

Three cycles, perfect accuracy within four days. Today? Silent.

MVRV Z-Score 2.06, miles beneath the 5.0 euphoria zone that marked every prior peak. Supply in profit 83.6%. Puell Multiple 0.95, textbook undervaluation.

These aren’t broken indicators, they’re screaming mid-cycle consolidation while influencers call tops.

Here’s what shattered the pattern.

Institutions absorbed $64 billion through ETFs this year. BlackRock, Fidelity, corporate treasuries vacuumed every whale dump without flinching. When retail ran cycles, emotion governed price. Now settlement governs price.

Bitcoin’s correlation to M2 money supply collapsed from 0.8 historically to negative 0.18 in 2025. It decoupled from monetary policy while correlation to gold spiked to 0.85, transforming into a hedge asset overnight.

The four-year halving rhythm lost relevance the moment institutional flows hit $64 billion.

Correlation 0.82 between institutional inflows and price stability proves mathematical causation. When Wall Street controls absorption, eighty percent crashes require macro catastrophe, not chart patterns.

A 2017-style collapse now demands BlackRock and every institutional holder simultaneously dumping treasury collateral. That’s geopolitical Armageddon, not technical analysis.

November 7th reversed six days of $660 million outflows with $240 million flooding back in twenty-four hours. Institutional hold rates remain 99.5% through volatility that liquidated retail in previous cycles.

The old playbook assumed cycles end when sentiment peaks. This cycle ends when absorption reverses. That requires sustained ETF outflows exceeding $2 billion weekly coupled with recession. Current trajectory shows neither.

Fidelity models sixty-five percent probability for fifty to one hundred percent gains by Q4 2026. Not hopium, quantitative analysis based on supply dynamics that never existed before.

Three scenarios crystallize:

Evolved bull at sixty-five percent probability: indicators stretch, inflows sustain above $5 billion weekly, price targets $150,000 to $200,000 by late 2026.

Bear reversion at twenty-five percent probability: macro shock triggers $2 billion weekly outflows, correlation to M2 money supply rebounds above 0.6, sub-$80,000 collapse.

Consolidation at ten percent probability: flows neutralize, range-bound $100,000 to $130,000 if dollar index exceeds 110.

What would prove this wrong? Sustained outflows above $2 billion weekly for four consecutive weeks or traditional indicators crossing despite continued inflows above $5 billion weekly.

The four-year cycle didn’t top. It evolved into something unrecognizable. Retail emotion lost control to institutional settlement. Time-based models broke when absorption dynamics took over.

Position accordingly or spectate permanently.

[Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine]

17 years ago today, Satoshi released the #Bitcoin whitepaper.

What a legend! 🙌

[Abby @AbbyShemesh]

@elonmusk As of 2025, idiocracy is no longer a movie. It’s a documentary!

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

Bears think $126k was the top, and btc will fall below $100k, and 2026 will be a bear market mainly because ... the 4 year cycle!?

IMO that is a BIG misunderstanding. Yes, there is a 4y halving cycle that doubles S2F-ratio, and 6 months before until 18 months after a halving was very profitable last 3 cycles. But, 3 cycles is not enough for a reliable pattern, and it is absolutely not guaranteed that the top is again 18 months after the halving (Oct'25!). Also, S2F model says nothing about tops or bottoms, only about the average price level in a halving cycle, assuming a fundamental phase transition (as described in the S2FX article, on my website in the bio). So IMO the top could very well be in 2026, or 2027, or 2028 ... actually I am much more interested in the average price level than the top (or the bottom).

What I do know is: there has not been a fundamental bitcoin phase transition yet in this cycle. Realized price (grey line) has not diverted from 200 week moving average (black line), RSI has not been 80+ (red) etc. Either the big jump has yet to come, or we have transitioned into a more stable price regime, dominated by institutions, fund mandates (e.g. 1%-10% btc) and rebalancing (sell after pump and buy after dump, to keep exposures within mandate). Both scenarios are very bullish for bitcoin. Also, IMO there can not be a big bear market without a big jump (red RSI 80+ and grey realized price diverting from black 200wma).

[Abby @AbbyShemesh]

We are bring financial innovation to the seller financed, business note space.

Small businesses are around 44% of US GDP and you mean to tell me the SBA is the only game in town for financing a sale or purchase?

We are note just another seller note buyer

https://t.co/WDPOJlttn2 is breaking the mold and democratizing options when sellers sell a small business on the contenental US.

We can provide maneuverability instead of getting dragged for months with an SBA loan process.

#SellerEdgeCapital can provide, liquidity for seller notes that a seller took back as part of the business sale.

In addition, we can provide velocity on timelines, certainty of execution and long term upside even after you sell.

We will see at Main Street Over Wall Street in Austin in November https://t.co/V8nk5fvFuD

#codiesanchez #sellernotes #businessnotes #selleredgecapital #mainstreetoverwallstreet #contrarianthinking

[Abby @AbbyShemesh]

@forallcurious It’s called sonic luminescence fyi!

[Abby @AbbyShemesh]

@BryceMLipscomb Well said! We all grieve with you. May God protect these United States.

[Abby @AbbyShemesh]

@RepMMM @GovRonDeSantis @realDonaldTrump @AGPamBondi - enough is enough! This should be investment and the school put on notice!

[Abby @AbbyShemesh]

@gunsnrosesgirl3 Doom?

[Abby @AbbyShemesh]

Thank you @NicoleShanahan for laying this strategy out, publicly.

Many agree and stand with you on this effort!

Let’s claw this back to the center / moderate position!

No more crazy, polarized (left or right) policies!

Just default reset to the founding vision of the county.

Let’s make the founders proud of this effort!

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

Trump-endorsed candidate for Florida Governor, @ByronDonalds, would like to add Bitcoin to the state's portfolio.

[Abby @AbbyShemesh]

@BernieSanders What happened to you?

To think I used to respect your views!

Those days are long gone!

You need to step down and let someone with a spine step in!

Shameful!

[Abby @AbbyShemesh]

@TulsiGabbard @realDonaldTrump Congratulations Madam Director!

Please make the American citizenry proud!