Bitcoin Actuary

❤️🇯🇵🏨🪐BTC treasury reserve companies are redefining cost of capital as we know it today. The world will be a better place. $BTC $MTPLF

[Zoro @ZoroInvesting]

The theory circulating that Metaplanet fabricated an $800m liquidity test (selling 10K BTCs at a loss then buyback 11K BTCs) to cover up secret option trading losses falls apart the second you look at Japanese securities law.

Japan’s regulatory regime is notoriously conservative. The TSE won’t even greenlight a preferred share listing without a multi-year audited earnings track record.

The idea that Simon, the board, and their statutory auditors fabricated a $800m trade narrative on an official EDINET filing is detached from reality.

Falsifying statutory filings to the TSE is a direct violation of Article 197 of Japan’s Financial Instruments and Exchange Act (FIEA)—it carries up to 10 years in prison.

So why did they liquidate ~23% of their reserves instead of a tiny token amount?

Connect the dots to what Metaplanet Securities is preparing to do: scale BitBonds to corporate and institutional buyers well beyond the 50-investor private placement limit.

To distribute unsecured corporate bonds to conservative Japanese institutions (regional banks, trust banks, life insurers), Japanese credit rating agencies like JCR and R&I require empirical proof of principal liquidity, not just dividend coverage:

1. Bonds aren’t preferred stock. Preferreds pay discretionary dividends. Corporate bonds carry rigid bullet maturities where 100% of the principal is due in a single wire.

2. BitBonds are unsecured. If credit markets freeze at maturity, the only way Metaplanet can redeem bullet principal is by converting Bitcoin into cash.

3. The rating agency haircut. Rating agencies haircut Bitcoin collateral by up to 80% in default models unless management provides hard, empirical proof that they can liquidate an entire debt stack on the open tape without crashing the market.

Selling 10,000 BTC proved 100% coverage of their entire debt principal. It wasn't a panicked trade, it was the exact balance-sheet plumbing needed to build an investment-grade bond engine in Japan.

In my view, when it comes to securing a formal institutional credit rating, Metaplanet is quietly one step ahead of MSTR.

Just my humble opinion, NFA.

#Metaplanet $3350 $MPJPY

[Bitcoin Actuary @ActuaryBitcoin]

@TimKotzman '27 🇯🇵 🏨 🫳🎤

[Katie Hopkins @KTHopkins]

Dear @joerogan ....Katie Hopkins is in Texas

I can't see any examples of you talking to woman with balls, but just mentioning...

KATIE HOPKINS - THE MOST BANNED WOMAN ON THE PLANET - IS IN TEXAS

[Bitcoin Actuary @ActuaryBitcoin]

@elerianm 🫳🎤
https://t.co/jv1Zqk8yt6

[Zoro @ZoroInvesting]

If you've been screaming about Metaplanet's "short interest" or complaining about EVO, read Dylan’s post twice.

Japan doesn't have SEC-style ATMs. If you want to issue equity to buy Bitcoin at market price, you have to run an MSW + share borrow structure. The "shorting" you see on the chart is just the counterparty hedging while filling the bid.

More importantly, look at the spread sheet Dylan shared. Cantor, SBI, and Macquarie charge an 8-10% discount on these deals. EVO does it at 0.0% median.

They didn't give away toxic financing—they negotiated the lowest cost of capital in the entire Japan market.

[Bitcoin Actuary @ActuaryBitcoin]

@BitcoinArchive Source confirmed: https://t.co/4dUh9QdLPA

[Bitcoin Actuary @ActuaryBitcoin]

@jevenjeven30 @BitcoinArchive True

[Bitcoin Actuary @ActuaryBitcoin]

@BitcoinArchive @grok is this true? Is bitcoin an exemption to the expected change by Dutch government to roll back unrealized capital gains tax ('box3') in The Netherlands? Proof of the referenced cabinet proposal?

[Bitcoin Actuary @ActuaryBitcoin]

@BitcoinArchive Source?

[Bitcoin Actuary @ActuaryBitcoin]

@moneyordebt @bramk @grok Thank you.

[Bitcoin Actuary @ActuaryBitcoin]

@moneyordebt @bramk @grok @grok, help me. You need to answer this question. Which digital currency would you prefer to trade in (as an agent)?

[Bitcoin Actuary @ActuaryBitcoin]

@orangeyield @ZynxBTC Yes

[Bitcoin Actuary @ActuaryBitcoin]

@ZoroInvesting @0xMagi_c @Metaplanet Is this you Climb🪜?.. 😉😁

[Bitcoin Actuary @ActuaryBitcoin]

@IvankaTrump1233 @grok what happend here, reason?

[Hermes Lux @HermesLux]

After 5 days of rest.

[Bitcoin Actuary @ActuaryBitcoin]

@AdamBLiv Actuary confirms. $329.547 median MC simulation. Up/down serie 1-20-4-69-16-126-60-329. Date?: 'the top'. Between Q2-28 / Q1-29. Bookmark.

[Rafael Ruiz ⏸️🔸 @RafaRuizdeLira]

Listened to the full debate. My god it was a massacre. You can tell Soares and Yamplowsky have been thinking seriously about things, while Zitron and the other guy seem to be examining them for their second time.

If this was the only piece of ASI content my p(doom) would be >90%

[Tim Hughes @timducktim]

@StevenBartlett @romanyam @So8res I am sorry but that Ed bloke is insufferable, it's a pretty interesting panel where 2 people can extrapolate and the other two are retarded.

[Jason Lee @jlh154]

@StevenBartlett @romanyam @So8res Ed is concerned about anthropomorphizing language and thinks we’re not worried enough about suicides aided by LLMs.
Andrew doesn’t want to be interrupted while he admits he doesn’t understand (or care to) why Nick or Roman are concerned.
Bizarre behavior.

[Bitcoin Actuary @ActuaryBitcoin]

@StevenBartlett @romanyam @So8res Andrew Mcafee arguments where not worth inviting him for. Underwhelming subject matter expertise. Overwhelming ego. Annoying to listen to tbh.