Adam Gera 亚当

tinkering

[Adam Gera 亚当 @AdamGera]

Remember:
Fragile breaks under volatility
Robust resists volatility
Antifragile benefits from volatility

[Adam Gera 亚当 @AdamGera]

We are building a new venture @Jard_ai

The bottleneck isn't intelligence. It's power. Always-on AI agents cannot stream continuous video to centralized data centers , the economics, the latency, and the grid won't support it.

Raw video is abundant. Usable video context is scarce. An hour of footage is not a prompt, it's a timeline of scenes, objects, actions and events that has to be structured before any model can reason over it.

90% of visual intelligence belongs on the device. JARD builds that local layer: compact video language models that produce structured context in real time, so routine perception runs at the edge and only the distilled signal , the 10% that demands true frontier reasoning , reaches the cloud.

[Adam Gera 亚当 @AdamGera]

@MaorShlomo Nice, mabrook, next you gotta build a data center.

[Adam Gera 亚当 @AdamGera]

@jietang Vision, we can help with that :)

https://t.co/uPOL4bP9V1

[Adam Gera 亚当 @AdamGera]

Since a Palestinian voice has rarely been heard, let’s keep it that way for a moment and talk about Israel.

One of Nassim Taleb’s most powerful ideas is the “Intellectual Yet Idiot.” Not someone who lacks intelligence, but someone who mistakes elegant models for reality. Someone who optimizes for what they expect while becoming increasingly fragile to what they don’t.

If there’s one framework that explains Israel’s strategy over the past decades, this might be it.

This didn’t start on October 7.

October 7 wasn’t the beginning of the story. It was the collapse of a strategy that had been accumulating fragility for generations.

Israel convinced itself that Palestinians could be “managed.” That military superiority, surveillance, walls, checkpoints, intelligence, economic pressure, and periodic military campaigns could indefinitely substitute for resolving the underlying conflict.

This is exactly the kind of strategy that creates fragility instead of resilience.

You suppress volatility, mistake temporary calm for stability, and conclude your model works. Meanwhile, pressure keeps building underneath until the system fails catastrophically.

The explosion is inevitable. The only uncertainty is when.

It is a Black Swan. Not because it was unimaginable, but because the system was built to ignore the possibility until it happened.

And when it did happen, the response was… more of the same.

More force. More destruction. More confidence that the problem can be managed this time.

That isn’t a correction. It’s doubling down on the very strategy that produced the fragility in the first place.

This isn’t about whether Israel “went too far” after October 7.

The strategy itself has been fundamentally flawed since the establishment of the state. It has relied on domination instead of resolution, on managing symptoms instead of addressing causes, and on tactical victories while strategic failure accumulated beneath the surface.

You cannot indefinitely deny millions of people political rights, dignity, freedom, and security, and expect the system to become more stable. Complex systems don’t work that way.

If anything, they become more fragile.

I’m saying this as someone inside Israeli society.

Something is profoundly wrong.

Not only with what Israel is doing to Palestinians, but with what decades of this strategy have done to Israel itself.

You can feel it internally. The polarization. The normalization of violence. The erosion of institutions. The loss of moral confidence. The growing international isolation.

None of this feels sustainable.

If you’ve read the Incerto, you know that the answer to accumulated fragility is not to keep adding pressure. It is to remove the sources of fragility before the system removes them for you.

Reality always wins.

It always has.

[Adam Gera 亚当 @AdamGera]

My GCP bill this month.
That's why I still buy Google stock.

[Adam Gera 亚当 @AdamGera]

I think we’ve all seen what happened to Terra Luna :)

[OpenAI @OpenAI]

Introducing a limited preview of GPT-5.6 Sol, our next generation frontier model, as well as GPT-5.6 Terra, a balanced model for efficient, everyday work, and GPT-5.6 Luna, a fast and affordable model for high-volume work.

https://t.co/OoM83SyISN

[Adam Gera 亚当 @AdamGera]

Makes life easier

[AI SDK @aisdk]

AI SDK 7 is now available.

Introducing: reasoning control, agent-level tool approval, tool and runtime context, file and skill uploads, MCP Apps, durable workflows, terminal UI, sandbox support, harness integrations, telemetry, lifecycle events, and more.

[Adam Gera 亚当 @AdamGera]

$WIX
Why are you losers, I believed in you.

[Adam Gera 亚当 @AdamGera]

think the real move is to systemize things as much as possible, in the best way we can, so we build clear workflows and repeatable systems for everything.

That’s how we multiply productivity and dramatically increase what we can create. It’s not just about systems thinking, it’s about making systems actually work.

[OpenAI Developers @OpenAIDevs]

Show Codex a workflow once. Reuse it as a skill.

Record & Replay lets you show Codex a recurring task, like filing an expense report or submitting a time-off request.

Codex turns that demo into an inspectable, editable skill.

You control when recording starts and stops.

[Adam Gera 亚当 @AdamGera]

So: investor, programmer, creator, artist, leader, designer, teacher, entrepreneur, philosopher, storyteller.
The modern condition is radical agency. The real question isn’t *whether* you are these things, but *how intentionally* you choose to be.

[Adam Gera 亚当 @AdamGera]

"Everybody's an investor," says Peter Thiel.

Whether you write code, build companies, or choose a career, you're allocating scarce attention and belief into bets on the future.

[Adam Gera 亚当 @AdamGera]

Writer Ken Liu: "Everyone is a storyteller… that's how we make sense of this life we live."

Every explanation, pitch, and roadmap is a story about what matters and what happens next.

[Adam Gera 亚当 @AdamGera]

@mikeeisenberg Ypu gotta read fooled by randomness