Sharing my piece in @ForeignAffairs where I argue that, unlike the common perception, China’s overcapacity problem is NOT primarily about government subsidies (many of which have been rolled back) or lack of domestic demand (true in general, but not the leading cause in green tech).
Rather, it stems from three interlocking internal dynamics:
The bureaucratic system’s incentives, reinforced by the fiscal–tax model and worsened by the property market drag.
The financial system’s incentives, rooted in the banking sector’s low risk appetite and its preference for visible, short-term results.
A hypercompetitive, extremely innovative private sector, which paradoxically has made the problem worse.
These three forces reinforce one another and are deeply baked into the system. What makes the problem so hard to unwind is precisely that it’s not just about what the government does or doesn’t do; it’s about aligning a vast network of fragmented and often contradictory incentives.
Hence, what’s needed is not merely a correction, but an institutional reckoning.
WSJ cited people familiar with the matter that "Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng drove a hard bargain by asking the U.S. side to loosen restrictions significantly on the sale of technology and other products to China"
One thing I talk about early on in my survey class is how rapid the transformation has been in China. Students today and students even ten years ago have very different experiences. Kids who grew up in the 90s distinctly remember life in a lower income country /1
🧵 THREAD: A federal whistleblower just dropped one of the most disturbing cybersecurity disclosures I’ve ever read.
He's saying DOGE came in, data went out, and Russians started attempting logins with new valid DOGE passwords
Media's coverage wasn't detailed enough so I dug into his testimony:
A Chinese woman visiting the US who was abducted by ICE in California was found dead in an Arizona detention center...
They're saying it was a suicide, but was it? Would she still be dead if ICE hadn't abducted her ?
BIG: U.S. Customs and Border Protection Releases Detailed Guidelines on Tariff Exemptions for Select Products — Including Semiconductors, Electronic Devices, and AI Servers (See HS Codes Below).
*As long as the exported product to U.S. aligned with the HS code below, the tariffs will be exempted.
8471: Automatic data processing machines and units thereof; magnetic or optical readers, etc.
8473.30: Parts and accessories of the machines of heading
84718486: Machines/apparatus for manufacture of semiconductor devices/electronic integrated circuits
8517.13.00: Smartphones
8517.62.00: Communication equipment (e.g., routers, switches, etc.)
8523.51.00: Solid-state non-volatile storage devices (e.g., NAND Flash Memory or SSD )
8524: Records, tapes and other recorded media for sound/data
8528.52.00: Monitors for use with ADP machines (8471)
8541.10.00: Diodes (excluding photosensitive and light-emitting diodes)
8541.21.00: Transistors with power dissipation < 1W
8541.29.00: Other transistors
8541.30.00: Thyristors, diacs, and triacs (excluding photosensitive devices)
8541.49.10: Mounted piezoelectric crystals
8541.49.70: Transistors (classified under other semiconductor devices)
8541.49.80: Optical coupled isolators
8541.49.95: Other semiconductor devices
8541.51.00: Semiconductor-based transducers
8541.59.00: Other semiconductor devices
8541.90.00: Parts of semiconductor devices
8542: Electronic integrated circuits
NEW: @nytimes reports that the Trump admin is moving to strip hundreds of thousands of immigrants of Social Security Numbers they got when they were granted work authorization, repurposing a "death master file" to try to erase their previous legal presence in the United States.
ICYMI: No criminal record. No gang affiliation. Owned a towing business. Spent 11 years renewing work permits and trying to obtain his own citizenship. Wife is an American citizen. Grabbed by ICE as he was taking out the trash. Shipped to a detention center in New Mexico.
Read more at: https://t.co/HEIqfmk48S
I don’t have to agree with what this student wrote — that’s not the issue. You do NOT snatch someone off the street over an op-ed. That’s the kind of thing you see in China, Russia, or Iran — not in the United States.
Absolutely disgraceful.
++++ Exclusive: Not only are Trump‘s top security advisors discussing attack plans on Yemen on Signal - their mobile numbers, E-Mail and passwords can be found in commercial databases and publickly available leaks. Our @derspiegel Investigation (1/ https://t.co/ByVq0SuMSa
I served two combat tours in Iraq. I know how these operations are supposed to go.
Top takeaways:
1) Hegseth definitively exposed CLASSIFIED war plans.
2) Hegseth must resign. IMMEDIATELY.
3) This is a cover-up at the highest levels of government.
Let me explain.
🧵
It turns out Jeffrey Goldberg wasn't the only unauthorized individual in the Signal group chat. Trump nominee Joe Kent, who has yet to be confirmed by the U.S. Senate, was also in the group as they discussed top secret war plans. https://t.co/zB5TrrwTMB
BREAKING: Jeffrey Goldberg from The Atlantic @TheAtlantic has just released the FULL Text Message Chain.
I have provided all texts in this post and the thread below:
CHECK MATE! 🧵
Trump supporter Rick Fuze was arrested in Berkeley for using a stun gun on peaceful protesters outside a Tesla dealership. Fuze claimed they were paid protesters and he went there to show his support for Musk and DOGE.